Environment Representation and Hurricane Simulation for CWID 2009 Naim Alper Droplet Consulting for AER, Inc. John J. Holdzkom, Steven J. Lowe Modeling & Simulation Division AER, Inc. Stephen M. Webb ASNE/MSEA Liaison to JFCOM Dynamics Research Corporation Presented to the Euro SIW 14 July 2009 Istanbul, Turkey

Introduction Modeling and Simulation Executive Agents (MSEA)’s Air and Space Natural Environment (ASNE): AF Weather Agency Lead MSEA providing advocacy and USAF Investment Ocean: Commander Navy MET OC Center (CNMOC) Increasing interest and commitment due to FST / NCTE Terrain: NGA Modeling and Simulation Coordination Office (MSCO) (formerly DMSO) Primary source of R&D funds Primary advocacy, now via M&S Steering Committee Technology Investment Above parties have collaborated for over a decade to foster the development of critical enabling technology to reduce obstacles for the use of environment representations in all M&S Communities of Interest. All technology is US DoD owned and delivered open-source for maximum reuse Core capabilities developed independent of specific data and model resources

Outline CWID overview EDCSS overview Hurricane simulation Product generation and samples CWID 09 event support Summary

CWID 2009 Coalition Warrior Interoperability Demonstration Yearly event to evaluate technologies and capabilities for exchanging information among coalition partners, military services, government agencies, first responders and U.S. combatant commanders Two scenarios provide demonstration backdrop Homeland Security / Homeland Defense (HS/HD) US NORTHCOM Coalition Task Force (CTF) US JFCOM Coordinated with NATO and UK CWID

Technology Assessment - Procedures - Policies - Relationship Building CWID “Big Picture” Technology Assessment - Procedures - Policies - Relationship Building NATO CWID Coalition USJFCOM HS/HD USNORTHCOM INDUSTRY Purpose of CWID is to assess technology, develop and test policy and procedures, and build relationships between government and industry partners (technology developers). Scenario vignettes provide the backdrop to the event. UK CWID CWID Scenario Vignettes

WEATHER SCENARIO – CTF 15-25 June, notional year 2012 Theater includes SW Asia, and Horn of Africa Benign “Typical June” Scenario requested Relatively benign scenario. Requirements met with simple 13-day continuous weather model simulation (ie, no data assimilation necessary).

WEATHER SCENARIO – HS/HD - Wildfires - Flooding - Flooding - Wildfires Many more environmental requirements, highlighted by a hurricane passing along the east coast of the US; this scenario will be the focus of the remainder of this talk. HS/HD and emergency responders prompted to action by environmental scenario. - Hurricane

Environmental Data Cube Support System (EDCSS) National Repositories DoD Ops/R&D Centers NOAA Data Centers Other Domain CoE Project Definition Scenario Search Simulation Integrated Environment Representation Production White Cell or Analyst Terrain Ocean Atmos Space Product Generation Distribution COP (C4ISR) Integration 8

EDCSS Production Site Develop/maintain customer “product” requirements Generate/Access Integrated Natural Environment Representation “Outsource” product generation through well-defined service interfaces EDCSS Production Site AF Atmos Satellite Imagery Data Hypercube COSINE Effects Product Generation JMB Data Standards Navy Atmos Imagery Graphics (KML) Messages Navy Ocean METAR/TAF System Impacts Ad- Hoc Sources Common Open Services for Integrated Natural Environment (COSINE) A SOA implementation providing …. Resource Registration and Access Multi-Resource Integration Value-Added Data Processing Decoupling of content from format Space Weather Terrain Data WRF Model Output

EDCSS Requirements Data Model Project When Where Who * Components ASWIM JET White Cell JSAF etc AWSIM * Data AFWA GRIB JLVC CSV Effect IR Hypercube Products EDCSS Requirements model requires an end user only to define the project “who, where, when”, i.e., dates, area of interest, and who (eg, components such as JET, AWSIM, Support Cell) are participating EDCSS maintains knowledge of the relationship between Components and Products, e.g., the AWSIM component needs “JLVC CSV” and “IR Hypercube” products. Products contain pre-set definitions of content and format, as known requirements. A subject matter expert may define new or edit existing product and component definitions, but end user is not burdened with these details. Note four classes of products in EDCSS: Data, Effects, Text, Image. Spatial Resolution/Projection Available Increments Text METAR TAF Image Weather Graphics Synthetic Satellite Generation Service

EDCSS Products for CWID National Weather Service (NWS) Global Forecast System (GFS)-style weather forecast data (GRIB): 2X/day with forecasts to 3 days Simulated IR and VIS Satellite imagery (NITF, GeoTIFF, PNG) Simulated Radar imagery (NITF, GeoTIFF, PNG) Forecaster Graphics (KML, PNG) Forecaster Text Messages (TAF): 4X/day, 30-hr forecasts Simulated Observations (METAR): hourly for standard ICAO stations AWSIM weather data (CSV) Note this list includes both scenarios, HSHD and CTF. CTF planners requested more formats than HSHD. TAF = Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (text forecast) at fixed stations (typically airports) METAR = Aviation Weather Report (in French = METAR); weather observations at fixed stations ICAO = International Civil Aviation Organization (standardized meteorological station list AWSIM = Air Warfare Simulation Note AWSIM did not play in 2009 but did in 2008. 11

EDCSS Support to CWID 2009 Support two scenarios (CTF and HS/HD) Focus on HS/HD Hurricane scenario Produce underlying environment representation Specialized WRF modeling capability developed at AER Utilize EDC Production Site to generate all products USAF Joint Environment Toolkit (JET) for C2 integration USAF AWSIM air campaign simulation Direct “ad-hoc” integration to other CWID trials via EDC Distributor web services Utilize EDC Distributor to provide access during event

WRF Modeling Capability WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model is a community standard for numerical weather prediction Utilized by NOAA, AFWA, NCAR, research community AER maintains a WRF modeling capability for multiple government and commercial projects. Model deployed on 40-node IBM cluster AER WRF capability utilized for production of environment representations for EDCSS Test and Evaluation (T&E) system also hosted at AER. Model initialization based on NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Customized data assimilation to utilize synthetic observations to help “steer” scenario towards customer requirement.

Hurricane Simulation for CWID Identified historical hurricane (Blanche, 1974) that matched desired track and intensity Initialized WRF with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis fields Repeated every 12 hours to keep storm along desired track Data assimilation via WRF’s 3DVAR technique Inserted synthetic observations of surface pressure along track to guide storm along desired path Result Accurately reproduced path and intensity of Blanche Standard WRF output provides high-fidelity atmospheric representation from which all EDCSS products can be generated 3DVAR = 3-dimensional variational

EDCSS WRF-Based Product Generation Services Products Base Resource Virtual Resource GRIB AFWA, JSAF, GFS COSINE WRF WRF “Plus” EDC-COSINE CSV JLVC EDC-METAR METAR Text ICAOService EDC-TAF TAF Text ICAOService EDCSS Product Generation Services utilize COSINE to derive content from the base resource. Content as required for particular products, often not available in the base resource. Example “wiring diagram” from previous slide. EDCSS orders data from virtual resource to fulfill data requirements of each product. COSINE = Common Open Services for Integrated Natural Environment EDC-NATIVE Sat/Radar PNG, KML, TIF, NITF EDC-OWS OWS Graphics PNG, KML EDC-Hypercube Hypercube EDC-PresentWx PWx Graphics JPG

Sample EDCSS Products EDCSS Consistent Integrated Representation FTUS80 KWBC 110300 RKJK TAF 110303 04006KT 9999 SKC QNH3005INS BECMG 1107/1109 35007KT 9999 SKC QNH2988INS BECMG 1113/1115 09010KT 9999 SKC QNH2991INS BECMG 1119/1121 04009KT 9999 SKC QNH2986INS BECMG 1201/1203 03011G25KT 9999 SCT270 QNH2969INS BECMG 1207/1209 33017G37KT 9999 SKC QNH2967INS Consistent Integrated Representation EDCSS METAR RCMQ 110300Z 31016KT 10SM BKN140 30/25 Q0970

Exercise Support Site Event support site is auto-generated by EDC Production. Provides html pages for browsing and/or downloading products. Hosted on EDC Distributor.

EDCSS Deployment in CWID 2009 EDC Distributor installed on each network (HS/HD and CTF) Event Support Site hosted (HTML access) Web Services access to all requested products Located in US JFCOM Joint System Integration Command (JSIC) Product suites hosted: HS/HD: 750 MB CTF: 3 GB Results AFWA JET received hourly products via automated web service requests ASWIM downloaded and played CSV weather files Additional CWID trials downloaded directly from EDCSS EDCSS Products displayed on C2 systems throughout event providing realistic environmental context for CWID demonstrations. AWSIM = Air Warfare Simulation 18

Summary EDCSS provided multiple correlated views of the environment representation to all CWID participants Simultaneous support of two scenarios Support to both human and machine consumers Leveraged WRF model capability to generate desired hurricane scenario in high fidelity EDC Distributor effectively managed access requirements for all users without issue.