Information Overload: How to Wade Through Sound Bites and Make Up Your Own Mind Presented by: Erik Scott Mathematics Instructor Highline Community College Produced on 9/29/04 for Highline’s Democracy/Elections series. Substantial portions of the data for this talk (slides 2, 6, 7) were taken or slightly modified from www.factcheck.org Font sizes: 48, 32, 24

Headlines: Kerry "cast a decisive vote that created 20 million new jobs" Bush: Kerry Voted for Higher Taxes Over 350 Times! Kerry: Supreme Court "Just One Vote Away" From Overturning Roe Headlines created from titles of articles on Annenberg-sponsored website http://www.factcheck.org Bush: Kerry Votes Against Funding Our Soldiers

Be “optimistically skeptical” What’s a person to do? Be “optimistically skeptical” Each time you read an article, hear a report, or watch an ad, think of the situation as a game; a serious one, of course, but a game nonetheless. The rules of the game are simple: you are pretty much guaranteed that what you are being told is in some sense true. (That’s the optimism.) Now the author of the information is going to try whatever tricks he or she can to get you to believe more than what is really said. (That’s the skepticism.) My goal today is to share some strategies you can use to “win” this game – that is, you have a good sense of the “true story,” and what is just manipulation.

The Numbers Game Sins of Omission Percentages versus Amounts Amounts versus Rates

Sins of Omission: The author provides either no data or too little for you to fully check his/her claim. In a graph setting.

Sins of Omission: The author provides either no data or too little for you to fully check his/her claim. The White House released figures claiming the average American received $1,586 in tax cuts. While this is true, it neglected to mention that the median tax cut was roughly $470. John Kerry and the USA Today claimed that low-wage jobs were rising at a faster pace due to the fact that low-paying industries grew faster than high-paying ones. True, but within any given job category, the higher-paying jobs gained workers, and lower ones remained unchanged. In a numeric setting.

Percentages versus Amounts President Bush has presided over “the greatest job loss since the Great Depression.” From Feb. 2001 to Aug. 2003, the U.S. workforce lost 2.7 million jobs, which is greater in amount than any* period since the Great Depression. However, job losses under Bush are roughly 2% of all jobs, while the losses in the G.D. were approximately 25%!! * It was over 2.8 million during Reagan’s tenure.

Amounts versus Rates Unemployment rates: How can the unemployment rate go down even if we’re losing jobs? If we cut the U.S. deficit, isn’t that reducing our debt? Unemployment rates: 7 people, 4 unemployed = 57% unemployment; lose 1 job, 3 unemployed give up = 50% unemployment Deficit = speed of debt; smaller deficit = slower debt accumulation

Amounts versus Rates Deficit = speed of debt; smaller deficit = slower debt accumulation

Fuzzy Logic: Mischief Beyond the Numbers Black or White Thinking (the false dichotomy fallacy) Shooting the messenger (the ad hominem fallacy) Making a mountain out of a molehill (the straw man fallacy) Black/White – Liberal vs. conservative (questioning dogma & making gradual change); for/against (Kerry waffles, Bush threatens) Shoot messenger – Bush’s intelligence, Kerry’s war & post-war behavior Mountain/Molehill – Overreacting and slippery-sloping an argument to shoot it down

For more about the facts behind the candidates’ claims, go to: The Annenberg Public Policy Center’s “Political Fact Check” website: http://www.factcheck.org or you can simply ask any of Highline’s librarians for assistance! Thank you for attending! Erik Scott ( escott@highline.edu )