Economic Impact of Space Storms

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Presentation transcript:

Economic Impact of Space Storms W. Peeters Singapore GSTC 2014

Solar Activity (Sunspots averaged) Source: SIDC (2012)

Severe Space Storms history 1942 : Estimated : > X12 1991 : The Great Storm : > X12 2003 : Halloween Storm : X28 1859 (August / September) – Carrington Storm Telegraphs burned out Aurora was visual till El Salvador Greenwich/Kiew/ Bombay : off-scale magnetic measurements Estimated strength: > X40 (X60?)

Space Storms and Power Grids Terrestrial Impact : 1989 : X10 strength Storm USA and Canada : 5-6 million people without electricity 9 hours Economic loss and direct replacement of transformers : 4 – 10 billion USD 2003 : X28 Halloween Storm, transformers burned out but also satellite damage At present national UK grid study from Lloyds: 1.7 billion USD and up to 2 months before back to 100% normal activity.

Space Storms and further impact Williamson, (2004)

Space Storms and Societal Impact Electricity cut for days : production stop Effect on heating, transport, food, water… Air traffic grounded for days Degradation of GPS services, transportation Telecom impact: DTH TV and radio Financial transactions Business communications Security and Military communications

Carrington 2 effects Carrington-like storm: thousands transformers destroyed Millions of people without heating, later food and water shortage estimated 400 satellites in GEO impacted 150 billion USD replacement > 10 years to build and launch replacements GPS system heavily affected Estimates : 1 decade to come back to normal with 1 … trillion USD damage at least.

Telecommunication Impact (Source SIA/Futron, June 2012)

Countermeasures Robust (smart) power grids investment Experience exchange on hardening satellites Higher pre-warning times (satellites on other side of the sun?)  Hibernation… International Space Weather Programs? Involvement of the Telecom operators (cfr. Space Data Association) Create political and industrial awareness!

Southern Hemisphere Study presented in Adelaide by ISU team on 6 February 2014 (‘Our Turbulent Sun’) on effects in Southern Hemisphere Will be made available on ISU website www.isunet.edu The time to repair the roof is when the Sun is shining (John F. Kennedy)