Generations in World Catholicism: An Emerging Narrative Bryan Froehle froehleb@gmail.com CTSA, June 6, 2008

Background Big Picture Directions in World Catholicism, Mission, Catholicity Generations and generation stories Demographics and theology At Beginning of Project Creation and analysis of over 10,000 pieces of data Yet much more needed: preliminary nature End Point of Project More story than statistics More theory than a study of practices and trends Practical Understanding, Theological Implications

From Numbers to Narrative: Numbers Purpose Four “Generations” 1970 and before; 2000 and after More heuristic than “objective” realities: A, B, C, and “D” Sources National census and demographics Church sources (reported by ecclesiastical territory, Annuario Pontificio, resulting in Annuarium Statisticum Ecclesiae) Caveats National census data is incomplete for many countries, especially in 1970 Church data is not always consistent

From Numbers to Narrative: The Narrative Side Purpose Comparatively understanding today’s generation (“C”) in light of previous generations (“A” and “B”) and beginning to anticipate “Generation D” (2050, as a marker) “Painting” by number, not an exercise in demographics: heuristic more than “objective” Method Comparative (by region, year, type of data) Seeing numbers in context, not out of context Seeing the Story Picturing practice (beyond limited personal experience) Implications for theological work: Missiology, Contextual Theology, Ecclesiology, Practical Theology….

Initial Observations: Nature of Data People Individual level: Population, Catholics, Births, Baptisms Baptisms are the key measure Change may come relatively quickly, but double affiliation and on-going statistical fantasies are a challenge Institutions Organizational elements: Ecclesiastical Territories, Parishes, Pastoral Centers Easier to start than end: institutions are communities! Personnel Ministerial personnel: bishops, priests, deacons, lay missioners, catechists, etc. Change is often slowest to observe: life spans combine with organizational rigidities

World Catholicism: Distribution of People 1970 Population 1970 Catholics 1970 Baptisms 2000 Catholics 2000 Baptisms 2000 Population Generation A B C Africa 10% 6% 12% 11% 19% 13% America 14% 46% 50% 51% Asia 57% 8% 15% 60% Europe 18% 40% 26% 27% Oceania <1% Worldwide 100%

Distribution of People World Catholicism in Africa 1970 POP 1970 Catholics (C/Pop) 1970 Baptisms (IB/Bir, AB/Bir) 2000 Catholics (C/Pop) 2000 Baptisms (IB/Bir, AB/Bir) 2000 POP Generation A B C AFRICA 10% 6% (21%) 12% (29%, 22%) 11% (22%) 19% (12%, 17%) 13% North Africa 2% <1% (<1%) <1% (<1%, <1%) West Africa 3% 1% (22%) 2% (19%, 22%) 1% (17%) 5% (9%, 16%) 4% Central Africa 1% 2% (23%) 4% (25%, 43%) 4% (44%) 5% (17%, 26%) Southern Africa 1% (23%) 2% (15%, 21%) 2% (9%, 14%) Indian Ocean <1% <1% (25%) <1% (55%, 56%) <1% (35%) <1% (32%, 33%) East Africa 2% (25%) 3% (28%, 36%) 4% (16%) 6% (13%, 11%) Nigeria 1.6% .5% (6%) 1.2% (5%, 8%) <.1% (14%) 3.1% (8%, 12%) 1.9% Congo (Kinshasa) .5% 1.4% (52%) 2.4% (16%, 26%) 2.6% (52%) 2.4% (12%, 18%) .9%

Distribution of People: World Catholicism in America 1970 POP 1970 Catholics (C/Pop) 1970 Baptisms (IB/Bir, AB/Bir) 2000 Catholics (C/Pop) 2000 Baptisms 2000 POP Generation A B C AMERICA 14% 46% (61%) 50% (58%, 59%) 51% (56%) 51% (39%, 43%) North America 6% 9% (51%) 8% (40%, 41%) 7% (33%) 7% (25%, 27%) 5% Caribbean <1% 2% (47%) 2% (55%, 56%) 2% (41%) 2% (26%, 29%) Mesoamerica 2% 9% (80%) 13% (71%, 72%) 12% (83%) 16% (64%, 67%) South America 26% (82%) 26% (56%, 57%) 29% (75%) 27% (53%, 60%) United States 7% (23%) 7% (26%, 28%) 6% (22%) 6% (25%, 27%) Brazil 3% 13% (86%) 13% (57%, 59%) 14% (82%) 12% (59%, 66%)

Distribution of People: World Catholicism in Asia 1970 POP 1970 Catholics (C/Pop) 1970 Baptisms (IB/Bir, AB/Bir) 2000 Catholics (C/Pop) 2000 Baptisms (IB/Bir, AB/Bir) 2000 POP Generation A B C ASIA 58% 8% (4%) 11% (6%, 7%) 10% (8%) 15% (5%, 7%) 60% Western Asia 3% .25% (6%) .21% (2%, 2%) .43% (5%) .14% (1%, 1%) 5% South Asia 20% 1.5% (1%) 2% (.4%, .4%) 1.9% (2%) 2.2% (2%, 2%) 22% Southeast Asia 8% 6% (2%) 8% (14%, 15%) 7.5% (18%) 11% (15%, 18%) 9% East Asia 26% .25% (8%) .49% (4%, 8%) .61% (4%) 1% (3%, 8%) 25% India 16% 1.3% (1.5%) 1.7% (1%, 1.3%) 1.6% (1.6%) 1.9% (1%, 1.3%) 17% Philippines 1% 5% (81%) 6.5% (66%, 67%) 6% (79%) 9% (70%, 74%)

Distribution of People: World Catholicism in Europe 1970 POP 1970 Catholics (C/Pop) 1970 Baptisms (IB/Bir, B/Bir) 2000 Catholics (C/Pop) 2000 Baptisms (IB/Bir, AB/Bir) 2000 POP Generation A B C EUROPE 18% 40% (61%) 25% (56%, 56%) 27% (41%) 14% (42%, 40%) 12% Northwestern 7% 17% (46%) 10% (51%, 51%) 10% (41%) 5% (37%, 39%) 4% Southwestern 3% 15% (91%) 10% (84%, 93%) 10% (90%) 5% (86%, 88%) 2% Eastern 8% 8% (32%) 5% (37%, 37%) 6% (23%) 4% (27%, 29%) 6% France 1% 7% (90%) 4% (69%, 68%) 5% (76%) 2% (47%, 50%) Germany 5% (40%) 2% (NA) 3% (33%) 1% (30%, 31%) Italy 1.5% 8% (97%) 5% (NA) 6% (97%) 3% (87%, 90%)

Distribution of Baptism within World Catholicism 1970 All Baptisms per Parish 1970 All Baptisms per Diocesan Priest 1970 All Baptisms per All Priests 2000 all Baptisms per Parish 2000 All Baptisms per All Diocesan Priests 2000 All Baptisms per All Priests Africa 281 457 91 255 230 103 America 259 410 110 157 201 84 Asia 218 135 46 90 96 41 Europe 34 23 15 25 19 Oceania 72 247 48 81 40 WORLDWIDE 213 295 73 173 137 62 Central Africa 351 429 133 391 233 150 Southwestern Europe 33 22 16 38 Eastern Europe 35 30 21 32 26

Ministry Institutions in World Catholicism: Percentage Distribution (Number of Catholics per) 1970 All Ecclesiastical Territories 1970 Parishes Only 1970 Total Pastoral Centers 2000 All Ecclesiastical Territories 2000 Parishes Only 2000 Total Pastoral Centers Africa 15% (91,392) 3% (5,494) 13% (1,615) 11% (167,688) 5% (9,146) 20% (2,991) America 36% (257,896) 21% (9,021) 21% (5,886) 51% (310,555) 25% (8,773) 30% (3,909) Asia 15% (76,300) 5% (4,928) 13% (1,281) 10% (108,301) 9% (13,039) 13% (8,314) Europe 30% (364,641) 70% (2,293) 51% (1,902) 27% (242,542) 60% (2,337) 36% (2,123) Oceania 3% (72,455) 1% (1,954) 1% (1,152) <1% (134,848) <1% (4,508) <1% (2,703) WORLDWIDE 100% (179,945) 100% (5,669) 100% (2,729) 100% (201,898) 100% (11,149) 100% (4,065)

Priest Personnel in World Catholicism: Percentage Distribution (Number of Catholics per) 1970 Priests (C:Priests) 1970 Diocesan Ordinations Seminarians 2000 Priests (C:Priests) 2000 Diocesan Ordinations 2000 Seminarians Generation “A” “B” “C” Africa 4% (1,921) 4% 5% 7% (3,727) 17% 18% America 28% (3,900) 28% 33% 30% (4,905) 32% Asia 6% (1,268) 11% 14% 11% (8,700) 16% 24% Europe 61% (968) 55% 46% 51% (2,215) 34% Oceania 1% (875) <1% 2% 1% (1,431) 1% WORLDWIDE 100% (2,138) 100% 100% (4,437)

Personnel in World Catholicism: Percentage Distribution 1970 Deacons 1970 Women Religious 1970 Religious Brothers (Religious Priests) 2000 Deacons 2000 Women Religious 2000 Religious Brothers (Religious Priests) 2000 Lay Missionaries 2000 Catechists Most Parallels Distribution of: Total Catholics Other religious Nothing Baptisms Africa 5% 3% 7% (8%) 1% 7% 14% (7%) 15% America 36% 29% 30% (34%) 66% 30% (33%) 95% 56% Asia 4% 8% (8%) <1% 16% 14% (13%) 10% Europe 54% 58% 50% (48%) 32% 46% 39% (45%) 19% Oceania 4% (2%) 3% (2%)

Considering Generations in Contemporary World Catholicism Generations are typically examined in a single cultural context But what about globalization? What about a world church, global/transnational linkages? A generational analysis in the context of a world church Suggests something about mission and catholicity Deeper, fresher understanding in contemporary context It also problematizes the notion of an “other”

Suggested Topics from an Emerging Narrative… Social context, globalization, power Theological challenge: practice, theory, context, Method: multiple; numbers to narrative; comparative to theory/theology and back again Narrating theological trajectories: History, Contemporary, and Long Term

Implications: Accounts of Contemporary Catholicism What theological questions do these emerging accounts engage—missiological, contextual, practical, ecclesiological? Specifically… What does the data suggest about today’s Catholic story, and emerging directions of that story? What does the data suggest about stories we tell ourselves as church?

ACROSS THE GENERATIONS: Observations and Theological Implications Gen C (today): No region predominates Europe from central to much diminished Multiple stories into one; each relative to other Gen D (next): Significant underlying decline Globally, absolute declines/percentage declines Demographics, double affiliation mask decline Growth/Stability higher for “minorities” Germany; Eastern Europe; USA; India; Nigeria Pluralism positive; dynamic narrative, civil society Significant global variation in ministries Deacons, pastoral centers, lay missionaries Yet such diversity seems to fit and to work