Canadian Institute of Actuaries L’Institut canadien des actuaires 2009 Annual Meeting ● Assemblée annuelle 2009 Halifax, Nova Scotia ● Halifax (Nouvelle-Écosse)

IP 4 Group Life and Health Research The Committee Activities 1988-97 LTD Termination Study 2004-8 LTD Termination Study 2004-8 LTD Incidence Study 2009 Post Retirement Medical Study Future Studies Details on 1988-97 LTD Study Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting

Group Life and Health Research Sub-Committee Part of the CIA Research Committee Current team active Since Mid-2008 Includes representative from Large and small insurers Reinsurers Consultants Ontario, Quebec and the West Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting

CIA Group Life and Health Research Sub-Committee Peter Douglas (Chair) Don Blue Isabelle Bouchard Joel Cornberg Réjean Dion Ron Hoskins Micheline Lafond Natalie Laporte Cindy Lau Stéphane Levert Stella-Ann Ménard Wayne Morris Michel Simard Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting

1988-97 LTD Termination Study Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting Continuation of 1998-94 LTD and waiver studies Inherited a largely complete study Published on CIA website June 2009 Details later

2004-8 LTD Termination Study Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting New study RFP for researcher in early 2009 Fraser/Garand will perform the study Request for data May 2009 Final study expected Mid-2010

2004-8 LTD Termination Study - Scope Include All claims paid 2004-8 ASO and Litigated claims Tracked but excluded Exclude Plans with max. duration <10 years Track Plan/Employer Information Offsets Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting

2004-8 LTD Termination Study - Deliverables Tables Separate mortality and recovery Sex age at disability (banded) Duration since disability Analysis By region To prior studies With vs. without CPP/QPP benefits Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting

2009 LTD Incidence Rate Study RFP for Researcher in early 2009 No firm proposals but Fraser/Garand interested Need to achieve “critical mass” of data Some key players have yet to sign on Need to better define study terms to get sign on Study will be revisited Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting

Post Retirement Medical Study Follow on to 2008 Task Force Report Study of Inflation factors initially RFP for researcher June 2009 Target for completion early 2010 More studies to follow “Hot Topic” with public visibility for Consultants CIA leadership Session IP15 Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting

Future Studies Revisit LTD incidence rates More on post-retirement medical Less urgent issues Waiver Falls out of LTD Critical Illness Data availability Group Life Others? Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting

1988-97 LTD Termination Study Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting Update of existing CIA studies 1998-94 LTD CIA Life waiver Performed by University of Western Ontario Published on CIA website June 2009

1988-97 LTD Study Overview Scope Key Findings Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting Scope Key Findings Deliverables (Table formats) Analysis Comparisons to existing tables

1988-97 LTD Study 25 Insurers (95% of market in 1997) 300,000 claims 4 million units of exposure Months for first 36 months Years thereafter 43% females 140,000 terminations 20,000 deaths 120,000 recoveries Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting

LTD Exposures by Elimination Period Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting

LTD Exposures by Province Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting

1988-97 LTD Study Key Findings Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting Quebec different from others Recoveries and deaths Recovery rates No difference by sex Spike @ end of “own occ” period Lower in first month on claim Slight upward trend 1988‑97 No difference Refund vs. Non Refund ASO different

Disabled Recovery Tables All tables unisex 10 year select period 5 year age bands Separate Quebec/Non Quebec tables Ultimate All provinces By attained age Monthly rates for 36 months, then annual Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting

Disabled Mortality Tables Sex distinct 10 year select period 5 year age bands Separate Quebec/Non Quebec tables Ultimate All provinces By attained age Monthly rates for 36 months, then annual Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting

Terminations by Region Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting

Terminations by Region Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting A:Es based on 1988-94 CIA Life Waiver table PQ much higher initially, little difference after 3 years

Deaths by Region Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting A:E based on 1988-94 Life Waiver

Recoveries by Region Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting A:E based on CIA 1988-94 Life Waiver

Recoveries Improved Over Time Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting

No Mortality Trends Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting

Termination A:E by Year and Province Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting PQ Ontario

Recovery Rates (All Ages) Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting

Recovery Rates (All Ages) Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting PQ Rates much higher initially Experience converges after 3 years

Recovery Non-PQ (All Ages) Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting

Recovery Non-PQ (All Ages) Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting Lower recovery rates in first month on claim No differences by sex Spike at end of “own occ” period

Recovery PQ (All Ages) Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting

Recovery (Ages 40-44) Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting

Recovery (Ages 40-44) Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting PQ much higher initially Experience converges after 3 year

Mortality PQ (All Ages) Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting

Mortality Non-PQ (All Ages) Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting

Mortality Non-PQ vs. PQ (all ages) Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting

Mortality Non-PQ vs. PQ (all ages) Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting PQ higher at 12 months Experience Converges @3 yrs PQ initially lower

Results by Funding Type Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting A:E Ratios vs 87GLTD

Results by Funding Type Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting

Results by Funding Type Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting

Comparison vs. CIA 88-94 Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting

Comparison vs. CIA 88-94 Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting

Comparison vs. CIA 88-94 Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting

Comparison vs. GLTD Assemblée annuelle 2009 2009 Annual Meeting