CVEN 5393 Water Resources Management and Design Lecture 1 – Zagona January 10, 2011

Course Objectives Learn and apply various quantitative analysis techniques that can support and improve water resources planning and management What are the goals of water resources P&M? What are the guiding principles? What analysis techniques are needed to support effective P&M? .

WRP&M Objectives Objective is to Influence and improve interaction of : Natural River Made-made physical intervention Socio-economic activities (uses, benefits, costs) Administrative and institutional - laws

Spatial and Temporal Scales Operational forecasting Near term planning Long term planning Sustainability

Sustainability Serve people living today and in the future Anticipate change Robust and resiliant to uncertain future Adaptive strategies

Adaptive Management Process of adjusting management actions and directions as appropriate, in the light of new information on the current and likely future condition of our total environment and on our progress toward meeting our goals and objectives (Loucks and van Beek) 2 major applications: System is too complex to predict well Future is too uncertain to predict well

Adaptation to Possible Futures Possible future states are more varied as we move further into the future. Most extreme scenarios are on the surface of the cone. We may not know the risks or uncertainties associated with the future states.

2 Basic Approaches to WRP&M Top-Down (traditional) Master planning – based on water availability Assumption of institutional authority Bottom-up (recent trend) Stakeholder participation and decision-making Challenge? Many conflicting objectives – “shared vision” planning and modeling needed

Integrated Water Resources P&M Defined by Dublin Principles 1992

Integrated Water Resources P&M A process which promotes coordinated development and management of water, land and related resources, in order to maximize the resultant economic and social welfare in an equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems.

Multiple Objectives of Water Resources Systems When objectives conflict – how to resolve the conflicts? How to identify the “best” management to meet the objectives?

Analysis Techniques for Effective WRP&M Modeling What should be modeled? (What is relevant system?) What should the model accomplish? Descriptive: Predict outcomes – what is response of system to management actions or other changes? Prescriptive : Identify a solution – what is best plan given specified objectives and constraints? What if future is uncertain? Deterministic vs. probabalistic modeling What if uncertainty cannot be quantified?

Decision Support Systems DSS is a tool or integrated set of tools that perform quantitative analysis to support decision-making Models and modeling tools (descriptive and/or prescriptive) Uncertainty analysis Economic (benefit / cost and other) Multi-criteria analysis Shared vision modeling

Class content Descriptive modeling (simulation, deterministic) also called “scenario” modeling Prescriptive modeling – optimization solutions Uncertainty and reliability modeling DSS – including MCA and shared vision modeling Homework #1 Read Loucks and van Beek Chapters 1 and 2 and answer questions (see assignment on web page)

Simulation with RiverWare River/reservoir system modeling tool developed at CADSWES and used by water managers Week of January 17 – tutorial with RiverWare Assignment will be on Web page and email Work in Bechtel Lab or on your own laptops (email if you want to install on your laptop)