How to estimate potential benefits of scaling up RECP SwitchMed Connect 2016 How to estimate potential benefits of scaling up RECP to a whole sector / economy on the basis of industry pilot results Vladimir Dobes, UNIDO

Czech upscaling experience Focus on pilots and capacity building Upscaling study: Projecting results of pilots to the whole industrial branches utilising branch specific statistics Governmental program Engagement of all stakeholders Financing 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 on First training NCPC Upscaling study National RECP Program Broad spread of RECP

Sources of company benefits RECP PILOTS 2) Reduced use of natural resources 1) Reduced pollution 4) Company savings on pollution fees (if exist) Show principle of inputs turning either into desirable product or into non product output (pollution). 3) Total company savings

1) Pollution based estimate RECP PILOTS Reduced pollution flow (pilot statistics %) Country wide statistics for given pollution flow (amount / y) Show principle of inputs turning either into desirable product or into non product output (pollution). EXAMPLE reduction of specific waste flow Branch wide potential = Potential for reduction % X branch wide amount 41 400 t / y = 0,23 x 180 000 t / y

2) Input based estimate RECP PILOTS Reduced use of given natural resource (pilot statistics %) Branch wide statistics for given input (amount / y) Show principle of inputs turning either into desirable product or into non product output (pollution). EXAMPLE reduction of energy use Branch wide potential = Potential for reduction % X branch wide amount 127 500 MWh / y = 0,15 x 850 000 MWh / y

3) Costs savings based estimate RECP PILOTS 3) Annual savings (% of turnover) Country wide turnover for given industrial branch (EUR / y) Show principle of inputs turning either into desirable product or into non product output (pollution). EXAMPLE reduction of costs Branch wide potential = Potential for reduction % X branch wide turnover 2 500 000 EUR / y = 0,01 x 2 500 000 000 EUR / y

4) Reduced pollution fee based extimate RECP PILOTS Reduced pollution fee (pilot statistics %) Branch wide payment of given pollution fee (EUR / y) EXAMPLE reduction of pollution fee / waste flow Show principle of inputs turning either into desirable product or into non product output (pollution). Branch wide potential = Potential for reduction % X branch wide payment 675 000 EUR / y = 0,45 x 1 500 000 EUR / y

Experience step by step First indication – we calculated ratio „environmental“ (end of pipe) costs / non product output costs in our RECP demonstrations and it was in average 1:12; there were known statistics on „environmental costs“ in all industry and we known that total RECP potential is one order higher – from here comes question how to extrapolate numbers from company demonstrations to country macro level? First estimation – was based on a conservative estimate that easily explorable RECP potential is at least 1% of turnover These general estimates were utilised for convincing government to commission: Upscaling Study – scientific extrapolation of results of demonstration projects to the whole industrial branches Convincing results commitment of stakeholders, national program, funding

Steps of the Czech Upscaling Study Compiling indicators from appr. 100 company demonstrations, for example: Total annual savings related to company annual turnover in % Reduction in electricity consumption in % (monitored in MWh / year) Reduction in release of specific pollution flow in % (monitored in t / year) Reduction in release of water / waste / air pollution flows in % (monitored in amount of specific pollution fee paid (EUR / year)) Selecting indicators which are utilised in national statistics within given industrial branch using the same indicators, for example: Total turnover of given industrial branch (EUR / year) Total consumption of energy carrier (MWh / year) Total release of specific pollution flow (t / year ; m3 / year) Total water / waste / air pollution fee (EUR / year) Multiplying results from demonstrations in % by branch specific annual statistics

AND WHAT IS YOUR POTENTIAL? RECP upscaling study in German SMEs estimated an average annual cost saving potential per enterprise on 200, 000 EUR which was 2.0% of their turnover Source: Demea, 2014 AND WHAT IS YOUR POTENTIAL?

Next Steps Local teams review existing national statistics and indicators to see which kind of data are available Compile average indicators from demonstration projects (using total sum before calculating percentage) Consult with MoI NFP to present the objective of a upscaling study by using some simple extrapolation to indicate minimum RECP potential in given industrial branch / industry (this can be based on total „environmental costs“ or turnover) SwitchMed may support an upscaling study, based on the outputs of the steps 1, 2 and 3 The results of the upscaling study can leverage stakeholder support and funding for RECP program