The Present & Future Outlook of Final Energy Consumption in Energy & Sustainability The Present & Future Outlook of Final Energy Consumption in Myanmar CBEI Regional Forum 2016

Population * Figure 5: Population change from 1872 to 20148 60.0 51.5 50.0 Population (in millions) 40.0 35.3 28.9 20.0 16.8 14.7 13.2 12.1 10.5 7.7 10.0 2.7 3.7 - - - - - 1872 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1973 1983 1993 2003 2014 • In April 2014, Myanmar had a nationwide census. The last one we did was in 1983. Population density of 76 persons per square km. 30% Urban and 70% Rural 8.4% of ASEAN and 5th populous nation. Annual growth rate estimated at 0.89%

Primary Energy Production & Consumption Figure I-12: Myanmar Total Final Energy Consumption (TFEC) by Sector Figure I-2: Myanmar Total Primary Energy Production 14,000 20,000 18,000 12,000 16,000 10,000 14,000 12,000 8,000 ktoe ktoe 10,000 6,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 4,000 2,000 2,000 - - Petroleum Products Natural Gas Coal and Lignite Electricity Biomass Source: Consultant’s estimate based on data of MOE, MOEP, MOGE, MPPE, MOECAF, and CSO Coal Crude Oil Gas Hydro Biomass Source: Consultant’s estimate based on data of MOE, MOEP, MOGE, MPPE, MOECAF, and CSO • TPEP is at 18.53 Mtoe (Biomass 46% and Natural Gas: 43%) aggregate increase of 3.9% annually. TFEC is at 14.3 Mtoe (Residential use at 75%, Industry 9%, Transport 6%). Approximately 8.6 Mtoe of biomass is consumed in the residential sector mainly for cooking.

Electricity Consumption • Only the 30% urban population has access to electricity. Installed capacity of 5,115 MW Electricity energy consumption :2.22 Mtoe ( 14,398 GWh) Final electricity consumption per capita is est; 263 kWh/year.

Agricultural residues Solid Biomass Consumption 78 Fuel Utilization – National (% of HH) 3% Agricultural residues 14% Electricity 1% LPG 24% Charcoal 59% Firewood Firewood Charcoal Agricultural Residues Electricity LPG Solid fuels Source: Myanmar Household Cooking Survey – TNS (N=803); EMC Analysis • Rural population depends totally on solid biomass as main energy source.

Primary Stove Use Cooking is the main energy consumption. 2%2%1%10%% Three stone cookstove Charchoal / Multipurpose Electric Tripod Mud (Green or baked) stove A1 cookstove Carved Stone Stove Rice Husk Stove Iron Stove LPG Pathein Charcoal Stove A1 Variation Stove Others 5% 6% 35% 7% 15% 27% • Cooking is the main energy consumption. The most common type of stove used across the country is the three stone open fire : 35% Majority of rural households use either the three stone,tripod or multipurpose charcoal stoves. A1 cookstove have the best thermal efficiency and only been used by 5% of the population.

Fuel Collection 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 45 % 31 % 10 % 6 % 3 % 3 % 3 % 1– 2 bunches 3 – 4 bunches 5 – 6 bunches 7 – 8 bunches 9 – 10 bunches 11 – 15 bunches > 16 bunches Household Size: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8> • 76% of a typical household will use between 2 to 4 bunches of firewood. Estimate physical value 20,000 kilo tons of solid fuel wood is used (8 Mtoe) per year. Firewood collection is getting more and more difficult year by year. Price for firewood is increasing at a compound rate of 10% per annum.

Cooking with solid biomass fuel has impacts throughout the supply chain Collection Unsustainable collection or harvesting of wood for firewood and/or charcoal can result in: Tree cover and forest degradation Localized environmental impacts e.g. mud-slides, loss of watershed, and desertification Pressures on regional food security and agricultural productivity Loss of biodiversity Combustion Burning of biomass fuels (wood and charcoal) can result in: Local ambient air pollution Short-lived climate pollutants (SLCP) Carbon Dioxide Emissions Production Production of biomass fuels (specifically charcoal) increases: Local ambient air pollution Short-lived climate pollutants (SLCP) Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Forest Cover Assessment Myanmar Forest Cover, ha 000s Main Drivers of Forest Loss according to Forest Trends 1. Clearing for expansion of commercial agriculture 45 * At the time of independence in 1948, total forest cover in the country was estimated at 70%. As of 2012, that figure stands at roughly 47% Thousands of ha 40 35 30 2. Legal and illegal logging 25 20 * According to the latest Global Forest Resources Assessment 3. Clearing for infrastructure, including dams and roads total “carbon stock in forest biomass” from living 2040 10 5 million tones in 1990 to 1654 million tones in 2010 1990 2000 2005 2010 E Closed Forest Open Forest • Biomass fuel collection could be the single a biggest reason on deforestation. Together with other drivers, we are facing a 6% annual deforestation rate. Combined with global warming there are alarming environmental consequences.

Future Population Growth Estimate Figure III-6: Myanmar Population Forecast: 1950 – 2100 Source: Projections based on a 2010 revision of WPP by UN Population Division (July 2012); data provided in Annex • We will be a nation of 60 million people by 2030.

Future Energy Consumption Projection Figure I-1: Myanmar: Final Energy Consumption Projection to 2030 Figure I-2: Myanmar: Final Energy Consumption Projection (Medium) Source: Consultants’ analysis Source: Consultants’ analysis • In the case of medium growth final energy consumption to rise at a compound annual growth rate of 3.0% between 2015 to 2030 from 12.7 Mtoe to 21.9 Mtoe.(BAU Scenario) Assumptions are that biomass consumption will remain stable or slightly reduced due to energy production & access from other alternative sources. Considering the power conversion losses using electricity for cooking is not efficient. What if the energy production from alternative sources do not match the energy demand of the rural population? • •

Energy Savings Assumptions by using EE Fuel Stove 25.00 20.00 18.00 16.00 14.00 12.00 10.00 20.00 15.00 BAU EE Biomass EE Biomass BAU 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 5.00 - - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 TFEC between BAU & EE measures (Mtoe) Biomass saving from EE measures (Mtoe) • Assumption is based on an ideal setting where the efficiency measure is to have the most impact. By doubling the thermal efficiency of existing methods and universal usage of EE stove by 2030. Due to efficiency measures, TFEC could change to 18.5 Mtoe instead of 21 Mtoe Accumulative energy savings equivalent to 19.5 Mtoe Biomass.

Fuel Efficient Stove (FES) Production • We need to have a minimum of 600,000 new fuel efficient stoves manufactured per year. Only 5% is currently being used in Myanmar. The aim is for “Universal fuel efficient stove usage by 2030”.

The following recommendations are structured into the two areas of intervention that should be targeted, the Supply and Demand Side SUPPLY SIDE Interventions need to sustain the development and expansion of the currently existing stoves production in the country. Interventions should focus on quality improvements, access to finance and access to markets and financing DEMAND SIDE Interventions need to improve the households’ willingness to use improved stoves, by leveraging existing drivers (price, durability), as well as creating awareness about the health and environmental impact of inefficient cooking practices

Private Sector Dev. Programs Work in Progress Environment Programs Private Sector Dev. Programs MFI Programs Cookstove Sector Livelihood Programs Health Programs • Over 50 active programs addressing environmental issues being implemented by over 20 national & international organizations. Over 20 programs addressing private sector development. Over 140 recent programs focus on non-agricultural livelihood development programs. •

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