Abhishek Nanda Al Khaleej Sugar, Dubai

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Presentation transcript:

Abhishek Nanda Al Khaleej Sugar, Dubai GLOBAL SUGAR MARKETS Abhishek Nanda Al Khaleej Sugar, Dubai

Where are the Sugar prices going? THE MAGIC BALL Where are the Sugar prices going?

BEHIND SUGAR MARKET

MARKET TRENDS

RAW SUGAR FUTURES PRICES SOURCE : ICE

PRODUCTION VERSUS CONSUMPTION SOURCE : FO LITCH

GLOBAL SURPLUS/DEFICIT (000 MT) SOURCE : FO LITCH

NY11 FUTURES VOLUME & OI (LOTS) EVOLUTION OF THE TRADE NY11 FUTURES VOLUME & OI (LOTS) SOURCE : BLOOMBERG

SPECULATORS IN SUGAR NY11 lots SOURCE : MAREX RESEARCH

BEHIND SUGAR MARKET

DRIVERS OF SUGAR PRICES BRAZIL INDIA CHINA BIG 5 THAILAND EUROPE

BRAZIL Production capacity : Sugar production: Crop Switch: Almost stagnant since last 3 years with no/limited new investments . Sugar production: Ethanol/Sugar allocation mix Gasoline Price Taxation weather conditions Crop Switch: Nature of cane (5-6 harvests) Interdependency between Agriculture and Industrial side.

BRAZIL (CS) SOURCE : UNICA

EUROPEAN UNION (EU) Quota Regime- Minimum Price was guaranteed on the Production Quota Before 2006 Short Term Impact: Additional 1-1.5 million MT exports for 2017-2018 Long Term Impact : Structural Changes in White Sugar Market

EUROPE AND RUSSIA (EXCLUDING EU) ‘000 MT Covering Norway, Russia, Serbia, Switzerland, Turkey and Ukraine SOURCE : FO LITCH

THAILAND SOURCE : FO LITCH

INDIA

CHINA Per MT Prices in USD/MT SOURCE : BLOOMBERG

CHINA SOURCE : FO LITCH

CONSUMPTION COMPLEX Consumption Increase/decrease: = Total Population X Increase /decrease in per capita consumption* *Per capita consumption may be misinterpreted because of: Stock holding at different intermediaries and Trading by different intermediaries

GLOBAL CONSUMPTION ‘000 MT SOURCE : FO LITCH

CURRENT PRICES NY11 SOURCE : BLOOMBERG

ITS ALL ABOUT PERSPECTIVES! VS.

A PERSPECTIVE Global Stocks Ended 2016/2017 at 5 years low. (‘000 MT) SOURCE : FO LITCH

A PERSPECTIVE The Crop Expectations for 2017- 2018 and transition to surplus is basis favorable weather conditions across producing countries. Sugar-Ethanol Parity in Brazil Indian Buying Expectation Non Commercials (funds) shorts at 133 000 plus lots short in NY11 contract Additional Chinese Buying

A PERSPECTIVE The Expected surplus Non Commercials (funds) may further increase the shorts In Brazil the Ethanol Parity back to below sugar Self Sufficient India No further buying from China

Shukran Thank you