SW-Monsoon 2017 and Kharif Crop Prospects Presented by: Aurobinda Prasad Vice President 022-66528894/7506938641

Rainfall Forecast (% of LPA) Actual Rainfall (% LPA) Monsoon Meter Preliminary Forecast Forecast On-Set Date Actual Onset Date Rainfall Forecast (% of LPA) Actual Rainfall (% LPA) 18 Apr 2017 30 May ± 4 day ??? 96 12 Apr 2016 7th June 8th June 106 97 22 Apr 2015 30th May 5th June 93 86 24 Apr 2014 6th June 95 88 26 Apr 2013 3rd June 1st June 98 26 Apr 2012 99 92 19 Apr 2011 101 Source: Indian Meteorological Department (IMD)

Monsoon: GDP & Inflation Relation IMD’s initial forecast date Actual Rainfall (% LPA) Growth in Agricultural GDP (%) Food Inflation(%) Food Inflation Index 18 Apr 2017 ??? 3.50 (E) 12 Apr 2016 97 4.15 4.11 134.9 22 Apr 2015 86 1.20 2.64 131.5 24 Apr 2014 88 -0.20 5.67 124.5 26 Apr 2013 106 4.20 12.32 110.9 26 Apr 2012 92 1.50 - 19 Apr 2011 101 5 Source : IMD , Office of Economic Advisor (GOI) and Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation, Note: Food Inflation: Yearly Average

Agriculture share in GDP

Kharif Production Scenario Production of Major Kharif Crops (in Million Tonnes) Kharif Crops 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 % Change Total Kharif food-grains 128.06 125.09 138.04 10% Rice 91.39 91.41 96.09 5% Total Coarse Cereals- 30.94 28.15 32.84 17% Total Pulses 5.73 5.53 9.12 65% Total Oilseeds 19.18 16.68 22.81 37% Cotton 348.05 300.05 325.76 8% Sugarcane 362.33 348.48 306.02 -12% Coarse Cereal: Jowar, Bajra, Maize and Ragi Source: Directorate of Economics & Statistics; Department of Agriculture; Cooperation & Farmers Welfare Note: Production in million bales of 170 kgs. each.

Rising Minimum Support Price (MSP) Kharif Crops 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2 yr % Change PADDY 1360 1410 1470 8.1% MAIZE 1310 1325 1365 4.2% ARHAR(Tur) 4350 4425 4625 6.3% MOONG 4600 4650 4800 4.3% URAD 4575 5.2% COTTON (Medium Staple) 3750 3800 3860 2.9% COTTON (Long Staple) 4050 4100 4160 2.7% GROUNDNUT IN SHELL 4000 4030 4120 3.0% SOYABEAN (Yellow) 2560 2600 2675 4.5% Source: Commission for Agricultural Costs & Prices (CACP)

Kharif Scenario 2016-2017

Policy Initiatives Schemes like Paramparagat Krishi Vikas Yojana (PKVY) helps in developing organic clusters & make available chemical free inputs to farmers 100 per cent FDI under automatic route for development of seeds 100 per cent Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is allowed under automatic route in storage & ware housing including cold storages Other steps include Pradhanmantri Gram Sinchai Yojana (PGSY) that ensures improved access to irrigation; creation of an unified national agricultural market which would help boost the incomes of farmers Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) In 2016, Central Government launched PM Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana for providing financial support to farmers & cover their crop losses. The scheme covers rabi, kharif crops as well as annual horticultural & commercial crops

Suggestions Walk the Talk (MSP) Support the farmers in excessive supply scenario (Current pulses scenario) Stock limit should be abolished at least in surplus commodities Open exports for Agri commodities (Pulses)

Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to seller or solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity or commodity derivative to any person in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Kotak Commodity Services Limited. It doesn’t constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Kotak Commodity Services Limited, nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the commodity referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions including those involving commodity derivatives involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a commodity’s price movement and trading volume as opposed to focusing on a commodity’s fundamentals and as such may not match with a report on a commodity's fundamentals. We do not have any information other than information available to general public. The report is based on information from sources like respective industry associations, FICCI, CII, companies, media and other public sources. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading may make trading decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees worldwide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodity/ (ies) discussed herein or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject commodity and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Kotak Commodity Services Limited’s prior written consent. Registered Office: Kotak Commodity Services Ltd., Nirlon house, 1stFloor, Dr. Annie Besant Road, Opp. Sasmira, Worli, Mumbai-30 CINU65910MH1987PLC042230. Fax: +91 22 24924696. Customer care: 180010266776. www.kotakcommodities.com THANK YOU