Ships and Waves Reaching Polar regions

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Presentation transcript:

Ships and Waves Reaching Polar regions Laurent Bertino, Timothy Williams   Nansen Environment and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway Contract number 607476

Objectives As of today, there is no forecasting service in GMES that is valid for the gray zone where waves-in-ice processes dominate. Aim: Filling the gaps existing in the GMES services with respect to waves in sea ice 1) extending the validity of wave and sea ice forecasting systems in the marginal ice zone, 2) developing remote sensing methods for routine monitoring of combined risks of waves and ice

2-3 days Waves and Sea Ice Forecast Models setup Topaz4 NA & AO Nesting: Ocean and Ice myocean.met.no Boundary Conditions Ocean and Sea Ice Model (EVP + MIZ) WIM module (wave in ice) 2-3 days Waves and Sea Ice Forecast Atmosphere (ECMWFR) NB! Today only EVP+MIZ on 3 day forecast on webpage, WIM module only 2 days wave data WW3 Wave model / WAM Nordic Validation Nesting Forcing Forecast Models Validation

Quantitative “MIZ width” validation

Solution of Laplace equation Based on Strong’s work about the MIZ mean width, solving the Laplacian equation: ∇2Ψ = 0 Courtenay Strong (2012) Atmospheric influence on Arctic marginal ice zone position and width in the Atlantic sector, Feb-Apr 1979-2010

More advanced geometry

All February 2014

SWARP: WP2, wave modelling Fabrice Ardhuin, Mickael Accensi, Justin Stopa (Ifremer) Vernon Squire (University of Otago) Dany Dumont and Paul Nicot (UQAR) Tim Williams (NERSC) http://wwz.ifremer.fr/iowaga

1. From « physical » to « spectral » space V. Squire et al. are working on the deterministic modelling of wave scattering by a field of ice floes . From Montiel, Squire & Bennets (Arxiv 2014)

+ Sice,scat (k) + Sice,dis (k) 1. Principles of phase- averaged wave models These models describe the sea state as a random superposition of waves, and tracks their energy in space and time which evolves due to various processes represented by “source terms” S... . This approach was followed in a simplified manner by Williams et al. (WIM module in an ice model). + Sice,scat (k) + Sice,dis (k) The novel aspect here is the incorporation of sea ice effects See e.g. Meylan & Masson (2006)

2. developments for SWARP Parameterizations: Implementation of ice scattering term from Williams et al. (2013) : based on 1D calculations of Kohout & Meylan + assuming isotropic scattering → requires a floe size distribution and ice thickness → new forcing parameters In WAVEWATCH III (thickness implemented for single grid. Dmax or Davg Needs to be added)