Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) University of Oklahoma CAPS is one of the first 11 NSF Science and Technology (S&T) Centers CAPS is a pioneer and world leader in storm-scale NWP and radar data assimilation CAPS is one of the four core organizations developing the new community WRF models. CAPS was founded by Prof. Douglas Lilly, a member of US National Academy of Science Prof. Kelvin Droegemeier, the second director of CAPS is a current member of U.S. President-appointed National Science Board, the governing body of NSF. Prof. Ming Xue, the current director of CAPS, is a recognized world leader in the development and application of mesoscale and convective-scale modeling and data assimilation systems.

Qualifications of Dr. Ming Xue, one of the FPIs. Prof. Xue is the main developer of the ARPS, one of the 3 major mesoscale modeling systems in the U.S., and is used worldwise. The ARPS is in use at all four collaborating institutions right now. Dr. Xue serves on 4 WRF Working Groups, and the WRF Research Application Board, and WRF Development Testbed Center (DTC) Advisory Board, and in the past the WRF Science Board. Dr. Xue has nearly 70 publications in leading SCI journals. Dr. Xue is the PI of the Analysis and Prediction Thrust of the current NSF Engineering Research Center (ERC) CASA, in which he is in charge of $1.5 million annual research budget. Dr. Xue is in charge of much research grants with annual budget of over $2 million. The University of Oklahoma has the best meteorology degree program in mesoscale meteorology in the United States.

Real Forecast Examples: May 8th, 2003 OKC tornado 2210-2238 UTC 30 km long path F4 Main tornado is the third one 2210-2238 UTC Struck southern OKC area (path:30 km long) F2 damage in Moore, F3 and F4 in southeastern OKC $370 million damages, 100 injuries, no deaths Tornado #1 2200 UTC 2204-2210 UTC

ARPS 1-km-grid forecast using 10 min assimilation cycles over 1 hour Reflectivity at 1.45º elevation 30-min forecast Observed low-level reflectivity and the corresponding model prediction using 1 km resolution ARPS model initialized with real radar data. Forecasts are 30 min and 40 min after initial time. Next slides shows an animation of the same thing. Hook echoes at the southwestern end of the storm with less than 10 km displacement errors Move at the similar direction and speed. 40-min forecast

May 8, 2003 OKC Tornado ARPS model prediction on 50-m Grid Forecast Radar observation Movie Forecast Low-level Reflectivity Observed Low-level Reflectivity (Click on the figure for movie – Place the movie in the same directory as the ppt file)

Research Plan of CAPS Continue enhancing its storm-scale model, the ARPS and its advanced data assimilation systems, Adapt the system to the Korean and East Asian environment. Improve model microphysics (e.g., multi-moment schemes) Evaluate and refine models for land surface and boundary layer processes for the eastern Asian and oceanic environments Develop advanced data assimilation using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and Doppler radar data and apply them to the East Asian environment Study predictability and error growth in multi-scale problems Apply the modeling and data assimilation systems to the analysis and prediction of orographical precipitation, heavy rainfall events and typhoon cases.

Execution of plan by CAPS Leverage on existing grants/projects for model and data assimilation system development Seek additional support for model adaptation and testing for East Asian environments Host visitors from collaborating institutions Leverage on CAPS’s access to university and national supercomputing resources, including NSF peta-scale systems when they come on line.

Movie of Cloud Water Field 25 m, 7.5x7.5km domain, 30 minutes Movie of Cloud Water Field. dx=25m 7.5x7.5km domain, 30 min. Movie of Cloud Water Field 25 m, 7.5x7.5km domain, 30 minutes (Click on the figure for movie – Place the movie in the same directory as the ppt file) Click for Movie