NextGen and Its Impact on Performance Worldwide Symposium on Performance of the Air Navigation System ICAO Montreal, Quebec, Canada March 26-30, 2007 Victoria Cox US Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Operations, Vice President of Operations Planning

It’s More Than Just the Movement of People and Goods Aviation and Aerospace represent 5.5% of U.S. GDP If expanded to include related industries, it’s 9% of U.S. GDP Contributes 10 million jobs to our economy

2025 NextGen Concept Key Capabilities Net-Enabled Information Access For full version, see: www.jpdo.aero Key Capabilities Net-Enabled Information Access Performance-Based Services Weather-Assimilated Decision Making Layered, Adaptive Security Broad-Area Precision Navigation Trajectory-Based Aircraft Operations “Equivalent Visual” Operations “Super Density” Operations

Cost of Not Moving to NextGen Unconstrained Commercial Demand (TAF Growth) OEP H&S Capacity Estimate No Change Capacity Demand 175,000 155,000 135,000 $100 Billion Annual Economic Loss Flights Per Day Uncons Comm 115,000 $40 Billion Annual Economic Loss 95,000 OEP H&S 75,000 No Change 55,000 2004 2014 2024 2034 Demand by Year

Future Demand on the NAS Flights 1.4-3X Boeing Forecast 3X 2.4X ~3X Not to scale Biz shift 2% shift to micro jets TAF Growth Ratios, Higher Rate TAF yields passenger growth of 1.8-2.4X in 2025 ~2X Continue existing Biz shift Smaller aircraft, more airports Enplanement Demand TAF Growth Ratios, Lower Rate Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) Growth Projection Significant Alternate Shift Increase passengers per flight A380, reverse RJ trend 2014 2025 20?? 1X 2004

2025 NextGen Capabilities: Capacity Impacts Airspace Capacity Airport Capacity NextGen Capabilities Aircraft Trajectory-Based Ops Performance-Based Services 2X – 4X Capacity Increase Distributed Airport Operations* And more… Weather Information in Decision Loops “Equivalent Visual” Operations Maximize use of Available Airspace Nearly match Good Wx Capacity “Super Density” Airport Operations 1.2X – 1.4X Capacity Increase Net-Enabled Information Access Broad Area Precision Navigation Current Current Current Current *For Distributed Airport Operations, benefits are modeled by shifting traffic (Bizshift) to selected regional airports surrounding the 35 OEP airports Bad Wx Good Wx Good Wx Bad Wx

NextGen Performance: Dual Focus Air Traffic Management Improved Performance-based services Area Navigation (RNAV) Required Navigation Performance (RNP) Continuous Descent Approach (CDA) Improved Information Availability (SWIM) Improved weather prediction availability and coordinated weather picture

NextGen Performance: Dual Focus Aircraft and Operator Performance Improved aircraft performance Navigation and aircraft flight performance Improved noise and emissions performance Provide better decision quality data to pilots and air traffic controllers to enable higher-density operations with high level of safety

Monitoring Performance against NextGen Targets National Plan Sets NextGen Objectives Enterprise Architecture: Performance Reference Model JPDO Develops NextGen Performance Assessment of Concepts – Sets Targets Agency Develops Near-Term Performance Goals Flight Plan OEP Enterprise Architecture Adjust Plan Agency Executes Investments Monitors Performance JPDO Manages Outcomes against Plan Portfolio Management

Demonstrated Metrics Experience ATO Dashboard

Operational Evolution Partnership Metrics Measuring today ensures a successful tomorrow NAS Today

Enabling Infrastructure to Support NextGen Capabilities ERAM STARS/CARTS ADS-B TMA TFM-M SWIM DATA Comm Precision Navigation Network Enabled Weather Current Programs Key Near-Term Investments ERAM Enhancements Automated Problem Resolution Concept Demonstrations Trajectory Based Ops/High Density Infrastructure – Trajectory Based Ops Time Based Metering TFM-M Enhancements Time-Based Metering RNP/RNAV Expansion Precise Navigation Data Communications Flight Intent Downlink ADS-B Aircraft Separation SWIM/Net-Enabled Weather Net-Centric Information Sharing OEP Solution Sets Initiate Trajectory Based Operations Increase Arrivals/Departures at High Density Airports Increase Flexibility in the Terminal Environment Improve Collaborative ATM Reduce Weather Impact Increase Safety, Security, and Environmental Performance Transform Facilities