Long Term Factors Affecting Voting The Sociological Model

Intro This links the way people vote to long term factors in a person’s life like their social class, gender, ethnicity, religion and region.

Social Class Class was the most important factor affecting voting behaviour until the 1960’s Peter Pulzer quote Broadly people knew that Labour was good for the working classes and Conservatives were good for the middle classes. In 1964 64% of working class voters voted Labour, while 62% of middle class voters voted Conservative. This means people were “class voters” and voted for their “natural party”. Classes A, B and C1 were Conservative and C2, D and E were Labour.

2010 election – low point for class Category Con Lab LD Con lead over Lab AB 36 29 28 +7 C1 42 26 +8 C2 39 22 24 +17 DE 44 15 -16

2015 Election – Class is back! Big factors in 2015 – rise of UKIP, SNP boom, collapse of Lib Dems

So social class is still a significant factor, it reduced up until 2010 and other factors like Brexit and Scottish Independence have had an impact, but in 2015 there were signs that class was again increasing in importance.

Sex and Voting The most significant trends in voting in the UK can be seen when we look at more than one factor together so: Sex and Class Sex and Age

Sex The main gender bias in the UK was a tendency for women to vote Conservative, although Thatcher won fewer female voters, under Major many went back to the Conservatives. However under Blair this changed. He made a specific play for the “school gate” mums, or the “Worcester Woman”. These are middle class women who voting analysts judge as being interested in social issues like education and health, and will talk about these issues at school or work – in the caring public service professions. This had a major impact on the gender bias. Tony Blair made a huge effort to bring more women into the Labour Party and tried to increase the number of female candidates with “all women shortlists”. He ended up with more than 100 Labour female MPs, making women nearly 30% of the Parliamentary Labour Party – the best ever representation for women. This all served to increase the number of women who now vote Labour.

In 2015, we can generally say that there is no great difference between men and women in terms of voting Labour and Conservative, the bigger differences between men and women come when you drill a bit further down into the figures and start looking at class and age group comparisons between men and women, and within gender groups. So, younger women had the biggest swing towards Labour of any group, while older women had a swing back to the Conservatives.

Women by class 2015 Con Lab LD UKIP Green Other Con lead over lab Turnout Change since 2010 - con Change since 2010 - lab Change since 2010 LD AB 44 28 12 6  5 16 73% +10 -1 -19 C1 41 31 8 10 69% +2 +3 -17 C2 34 33 7 17  4 1 63% -7 +8 -18 DE 42 5 3  6 -14 57% -3

Men by class 2015 Con Lab LD UKIP Green Other Con lead over lab Turnout Change since 2010 - con Change since 2010 - lab Change since 2010 LD AB 46 25 11 10 3 5 21 77% +2 -16 C1 42 27 8 12 4 7 15 68% -1 -14 C2 30 32 -2 62% -3 DE 26 40 18 9 56% -6 +5 -9

Conclusions What conclusions can be drawn about the different voting behaviour of men and women by class?

Age There is a general tendency for the levels of Conservative support to increase with age. Even in Labour’s best years of 1997 and 2001, the Conservatives won amongst OAPs. Some analysts argue that people become more ideologically conservative as they get older – afraid of change and inclined to think that the old days were always better. Labour tends to do better amongst younger generations – although some younger people moved to the Lib Dems in 2005 and 2010.

Men by Age Con Lab LD UKIP Green Other Con lead over lab Turnout Change since 2010 - con Change since 2010 - lab Change since 2010 LD 18-24 32 41 4 7 8 -9 42% +3 +7 -23 25-34 35 9 11 6  7 3 55% -7 +9 -21 35-54 38 12  6 68% +2 +4 -15 55+ 40 25 19  2 15 79% -1 -4 -8

Women by Age 2015 Con Lab LD UKIP Green Other Con lead over lab Turnout Change since 2010 - con Change since 2010 - lab Change since 2010 LD 18-24 24 44 5 10  9  8 -20 44% -6 +16 -29 25-34 31 40 9 8 7 -9 52% +4 +2 -22 35-54 32 35 12  4 -3 68% -1 55+ 45 27 13  2 18 76% +3 -12

Conclusions What conclusions can be drawn about the different voting behaviour of men and women according to age?

Overall Conclusions Why did the Conservatives win? What conclusions can be drawn about long term impacts on voting behaviour in UK General elections? Why did the Conservatives win?

Essay Question: 12 marks Assess the impact of long term factors on voting behaviour in UK General Elections