Coordination – Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck

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Presentation transcript:

Coordination – Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck CariCOF Probabilistic Rainfall Outlook November-December 2014-January 2015 and February-March-April 2015 CIMH Coordination – Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck NMHS’s acknowledged for rainfall data delivery and participation in modelling efforts! Antigua & Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominica, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

NDJ rainfall

CPT probabilistic NDJ rainfall forecast CCA experiments: 1) Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over September (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library) 2) Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over September 3) Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over NDJ (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2 , August initialisation) 4) Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic 5) Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library) Besides the major control of ENSO (here represented by Pacific tropical SST anomalies) and tropical north Atlantic SSTs on Caribbean rainfall variability, these experiments take the contrast between Pacific and Caribbean/trop. N Atlantic SSTs into account, as those factors are regarded as the most important drivers of rainfall throughout the Caribbean.

Experiment 1

CPT rainfall forecast Data: Predictor = August SST observations 1952-2014 140E-20W and 30N-20S (i.e. Tropical Pacific & Atlantic) [Source: ERSSTv3b, from IRI data library] Predictand = OND rainfall for 156 Caribbean stations 1971-2013 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 1 X modes: max = 8; optimum = 1 Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 1 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 123 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = !!0.082 Very Limited!!

ROC area maps

CCA modes

Experiment 1 NDJ Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps Above Normal Below

Experiment 2

CPT rainfall forecast Data: Predictor = September SST observations 1979-2014 90-20W and 0-30N (i.e. tropical N Atl.) [Source: ERSSTv3b, from IRI data library] Predictand = NDJ rainfall for 156 Caribbean stations 1979-2013 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 5 X modes: max = 8; optimum = 6 Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 6 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 143 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = !0.118 Limited!

ROC area maps

CCA modes

Experiment 2 NDJ Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps Above Normal Below

Experiment 3

CPT rainfall forecast Data: Predictor = NDJ simulated SST 1982-2014 140E-20W and 30N-20S (i.e. tropical Pacific & Atlantic) [Source: NOAA CPC – CFSv2, September initialisation] Predictand = NDJ rainfall for 156 Caribbean stations 1983-2013 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 1 X modes: max = 8; optimum = 7 Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 8 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 143 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = !0.100 limited!

ROC area maps

CCA modes

NDJ Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps Experiment 3 NDJ Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps Above Normal Below

Experiment 4

CPT rainfall forecast Data: Predictor = OND simulated SST 90-20W and 0-30N (i.e. tropical N Atl.) [Source: NOAA CPC – CFSv2, September initialisation] Predictand = OND rainfall for 156 Caribbean stations 1983-2013 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 1 X modes: max = 8; optimum = 8 Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 4 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 143 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = !0.152 Limited!

ROC area maps

CCA modes

NDJ Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps Experiment 4 NDJ Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps Above Normal Below

Experiment 5

CPT rainfall forecast Data: Predictor = NDJ simulated rainfall 100-40W and 5S-35N (i.e. broader Caribbean) [Source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble 24 – from IRI data library] Predictand = OND rainfall for 156 Caribbean stations 1979-2013 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 1 X modes: max = 5; optimum = 1 Y modes: max = 5; optimum = 1 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 143 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = !0.129 Limited!

ROC area maps

CCA modes

NDJ Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps Experiment 5 NDJ Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps Above Normal Below