Introduction to Performance Measures GES 400H UMBC Fall 2008 Megan Wiley Rivera

The CAN Process Develop performance measures Reach consensus on 0:20 The CAN Process Develop performance measures Reach consensus on the scientific data to be used in evaluating alternatives scientific methods and assumptions to be used the nature of alternatives to consider and how to structure the evaluations Create and evaluate alternatives in a collaborative setting with other stakeholders

What Is A Performance Measure? 0:40 What Is A Performance Measure? A display Compares alternatives for one or more management objective Needs only to distinguish "better" and "worse" Water management is multi-objective Multiple performance measures are required

Multiple PMs are needed 2:20 Multiple PMs are needed Water resources problems are multi-objective Some possible areas Water supply reliability Water quality Recreation Power generation Navigation Environmental Measures

Why are PMs so important 3:45 Why are PMs so important Without PMs parties tend to focus on abstract portions of rules, e.g. the minimum flow requirement, the level of the summer pool rule curve With PMs parties can focus on overall outcomes Creating PMs forces parties to think about what they really care about and how to measure it

Performance Measure Notes 5:15 Performance Measure Notes HydroLogics rarely tries to commensurate performance measures Single scores are not informative IMHO If it is not possible to evaluate a particular performance measure directly, we use surrogates

Process for Developing Performance Measures 9:00 Process for Developing Performance Measures

Scientific Rationale No habitat if lake stage exceeds 15 feet 9:55 Scientific Rationale No habitat if lake stage exceeds 15 feet No forage if lake stage reverses by more than 6 inches

Performance Measure First Attempt 10:20 Performance Measure First Attempt

Performance Measure Revised 12:40 Performance Measure Revised

Performance Measures - Surrogates 13:20 Performance Measures - Surrogates

Some Examples from the Apalachicola Chattahoochee Flint 15:30 Some Examples from the Apalachicola Chattahoochee Flint

Currently no CAN process 17:30 Currently no CAN process It’s been attempted (SVP), but the tri-state water wars go on (litigation) A lot of activity recently because of an ongoing drought in the region The US Fish and Wildlife Service put out a set of “performance measures” to assess whether or not the Army Corps’ proposed Interim Operation Plan violated the Endangered Species Act (Sept 2006 Biological Opinion, posted in course documents)

19:20 Lowest flow each year

Mussels Are Affected at Low Flows 33:00 Mussels Are Affected at Low Flows How much and at what flows is up for debate Generally thought that they get too hot (lethal) at flows < 5000 cfs They are strained at somewhat higher flows: 6000, 6500, 7000—depends who you ask Time is an issue they can handle x number of days, and after y number of days, it may not matter any more (ones who will die have died) We don’t know what x or y equal

Number of consecutive low-flow days in the worst year 33:50 Number of consecutive low-flow days in the worst year

Number of Low-Flow Days in Median Year

Sturgeon Habitat Available during Spawning Season 35:00 Sturgeon Habitat Available during Spawning Season

Note: Higher Flows Do Not Necessarily Mean More Habitat 38:20 Note: Higher Flows Do Not Necessarily Mean More Habitat Sweet spot at more important site

Note: Higher Flows Do Not Necessarily Mean More Habitat 40:20 Note: Higher Flows Do Not Necessarily Mean More Habitat Another example of counter-intuitive results—trying to get as much water as possible does not necessarily translate into better spawning habitat Opportunity to write rules that target these flows during spawning season Sweet spot at more important site

Other examples from hypothetical basin 41:00 Other examples from hypothetical basin Most of these have been biological performance measures An aside, there is a “sister process” to CAN in which biological performance measures are created by a group of stakeholders (Savannah Process) In at least one case, once they started modeling, found that biological PMs never scored well; not enough water in system, too coarse to recognize small improvements In some recent processes, model used during development (recall that I suggested models should not even be chosen until you know what you’re evaluating) We will be using two sets of data as we develop our performance measures to make sure they are reasonable: historical and “current operations” model results What about other stakeholders?

Number of Days of Recreation Impact during the period of record 43:15 Number of Days of Recreation Impact during the period of record

Frequency of Impact Days 44:55 Frequency of Impact Days

Number of Years with Extended Recreation Impact 47:00 Number of Years with Extended Recreation Impact

Number of Days of Recreation Impact during the period of record 48:20 Number of Days of Recreation Impact during the period of record

51:50 Water Supply

Water Supply Ideas Frequency of years that drought conservation measures are taken (economic and political ramifications) Compare to some measure of water supply reliability < 5% probability of storage falling below some threshold System never “empties” (include margin of safety) based on historic hydrology NYC group will need to talk with operators about their measures of reliability NYC gets about 50% of water from this source, so there is also room to play with how they utilize other sources