National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Mobile / Pensacola Special Briefing Severe Weather Potential for Christmas Day 25 Dec 2012 Self introduction and introduction of topic. 11 AM CST Monday 24 December 2012

Current Radar

NWS – SPC Day 2 Outlook For Severe Storms

Severe Storms Likely On Christmas Substantial Severe Weather Threat for Christmas There is an increased chance of severe storms with damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes during the mid morning through the evening hours (yellow shaded area). There is the possibility of strong tornadoes developing along and west of Interstate 65 (red shaded area) during the day. Greatest Risk Area for Strong Tornadoes Late Morning - Afternoon Butler Greenville Waynesboro Andalusia Wiggins Mobile Destin Pensacola

Severe Weather Threat 6 AM - 9 AM Tuesday Scattered thunderstorms develop over the coastal waters off SE Louisana during the pre-dawn hours and move northeast towards SE Mississippi and Coastal Alabama. Stronger storms could become severe with tornadoes, damaging winds 65 to 70 mph, and large hail.

Severe Weather Threat 9 AM - 12 PM Tuesday Scattered severe thunderstorms increase in coverage over southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama through late morning. These storms could produce long track strong tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail. Movement of the storms will be to the east northeast at around 50 mph.

Severe Weather Threat 12 PM - 6 PM Tuesday Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue tracking east northeast across the area…especially areas along and northwest of Interstate 65. Some of these storms coule produce strong long track tornadoes and large hail.

Severe Weather Threat 6 PM - 9 PM Tuesday Scattered severe storms will continue tracking east northeast at 50 mph across southeast Mississippi, southwest Alabama and potentially portions of the western Florida panhandle. These storms may produce strong tornadoes that track for longer distances. A squall line will approach approach from the west an move across southeast Mississippi . This squall line will likely produce damaging winds 60 to 70 mph in addition to large hail and tornadoes.

9 PM Tuesday - 12 AM Wednesday Severe Weather Threat 9 PM Tuesday - 12 AM Wednesday The squall line will continue eastward across southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through late evening. The squall line will have embedded stronger storms within it that can produce damaging winds of 65 to 70 mph with tornadoes and large hail. Isolated tornadic supercells may still be affecting south central Alabama and the panhandle through this time as well.

Severe Weather Threat 12 AM Wednesday The squall line will move east of Andalusia, Crestview and Destin around Midnight. The severe threat will diminish as we head into the early morning hours on Wednesday with a colder, stable, drier airmass working in behind the passing cold front.

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