Potential and Goals Primer

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Presentation transcript:

Potential and Goals Primer September 25, 2014 DAWG Energy Savings Subgroup Aaron Lu, CPUC (Presented by Greg Wikler, Navigant) Energy Division, Energy Efficiency branch California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC)

Presentation Outline What is the process? 1 What is the process? 2 How does planning inform the next EE cycle? 3 What is the Potential and Goals study? 4 What is the 2013 Potential and Goals model? 5 How are model results applied?

What is the Process for Approval / Oversight of IOU EE Programs? Current 2-3 year Budget Cycle Process: -CPUC Policy Guidance -IOU Savings Goals -IOU Portfolio Applications -Projected Portfolio Savings -IOU Portfolio Implementation -Reported Savings -CPUC EM&V -Evaluated Savings Ex Ante Review Process

What is the current EE Rulemaking? Phase 1: 2015 Funding, with targeted changes Phase 2: Rolling Portfolio Cycles Phase 3: Broader portfolio changes for 2016+ and Strategic Plan update

How EE planning studies inform the next portfolio cycle? EM&V Studies for the current portfolio Databases & Calculators to build the next portfolio Portfolio Forecasting and Planning Cost Effectiveness Calculator IOU Portfolio Filing Market Studies Integrated Energy Policy Report Demand Forecast Potential & Goals EE measure costs Database of Energy Efficient Resources (DEER) Impact Studies Long Term Procurement Planning

What is the Potential and Goals (P&G) Study? Establishes Goals & Scenarios for Incremental Savings Forecast Technical Potential Economic Potential Market Potential

What changes are in the 2013 P&G study? 2013 Study expanded on 2011 Study: DEER emerging technologies agricultural, industrial, mining and street lighting financing whole house multiple scenarios Disaggregated results

= + + + What is the 2013 P&G model? Total Market Potential Ag. & Industrial Programs Traditional IOU rebates Codes & Standards New program mechanisms Behavior & O&M Residential Net C&S savings from IOU advocacy Total Market Potential Financing Ag & Ind Custom Project = Emerging Technologies + + + Gross C&S Whole House (EUC) Commercial Savings overlap and must be removed EE potential for basic incentives

How are model results applied? Annual IOU Savings Goals = Gross Incremental Market Potential Goals do not discount free ridership Goals set for first year saving from the current year installations only The IOUs ESPI rewards are based on lifecycle savings Additional Achievable EE Savings Forecast = Net Cumulative Market Potential Free-riders are removed Forecast includes all cumulative saving Savings begin to accumulate from 2015