Michael Rogan ISER- Rhodes University 23 March, 2017

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Presentation transcript:

Michael Rogan ISER- Rhodes University 23 March, 2017 Study choices and job matching among graduates from two Eastern Cape universities Michael Rogan ISER- Rhodes University 23 March, 2017

Policy: National Development Plan: Increase of gross enrolments from 950,000 in 2010 to 1,6 million in 2030, a 70% increase University science and mathematics entrants to increase three-fold by 2030 Increase graduation rates to 25% (of total enrolment) Envisages an increase in higher education enrolments from 17.9% in 2012 to 25% by 2030

Objectives: 1) Graduate unemployment: Linked with study choices? Or linked with ‘non-HE’ factors such as social networks, schooling disadvantages 3) Job matching: Which graduates find the ‘right jobs’? Are study choices associated with working in a ‘graduate job’?

The Eastern Cape Study: Tracer study of the 2010 and 2011 cohorts from the University of Fort Hare (HDI)and Rhodes University (HAI) who graduated with a Bachelor’s degree Stratified (by subjects and institution) probability sample of 1,211 graduates representing the total population of 4,927 graduates Response rates of 39% and 47% per cent, respectively Fieldwork = online survey and telephonic interviews

Graduate Unemployment

Figure 1: Broad unemployment rates (as of March 1st), by field of study Notes: The data are weighted.

Figure 2: The correlates (log odds) of graduate unemployment, by university (main effects)

Figure 3: The correlates (log odds) of graduate unemployment, by university (interaction terms)

University of Fort Hare Table 1: Means of finding employment (among employees) Rhodes University SET Business/ Commerce Education Humanities Total Employment agency 13.16 (4.06) 12.73 (3.58) 0.00 (0.00) 7.25 (1.87) 9.84 (1.61) Relatives 6.04 (2.66) 5.15 (2.12) 7.75 (1.92) 6.59 (1.27) Linked to bursary 1.55 (1.54) 4.43 (2.27) 2.10 (1.04) 2.63 (0.89) Social media 4.96 (2.46) 15.08 (3.97) 21.05 (18.05) 11.82 (2.32) 11.56 (1.74) Personal contacts 21.02 (4.56) 27.07 27.63 (18.35) 34.12 (3.41) 29.56 (2.38) Newspaper 8.76 (3.91) 9.78 (3.44) 60.53 (18.99) 11.08 (2.24) 10.86 (1.71) Campus recruitment 3.77 (2.17) 8.69 (2.90) 6.58 (6.66) 5.23 5.95 (1.24) University of Fort Hare 4.50 (1.57) 1.62 (0.80) 1.92 (0.56) Department of Labour 10.03 (3.18) 6.16 (1.89) 11.90 (5.62) 8.82 (1.80) 8.68 (1.28) 1.21 (1.20) 3.08 (1.36) 1.82 (1.81) 3.42 (1.22) 2.79 (0.73) 12.11 4.92 (1.70) 21.56 (6.59) 15.48 12.91 (1.52) 5.84 (2.54) 7.84 (2.09) 4.36 (1.29) 4.99 (0.91) 8.39 (2.86) 13.84 (3.82) 11.78 (2.15) 11.32 (1.37) 36.62 (5.04) 40.69 (3.87) 20.55 (6.08) 37.50 (3.13) 36.23 (2.10) (2.99) 4.16 (1.55) 3.30 (3.23) 4.75 (1.34) 5.08 (0.96)

Job Matching

Figure 4: Job matching status among employed graduates, by institution (%) Note: The data are weighted.

Table 2: The correlates of being overqualified (estimation by probit) Rhodes Fort Hare (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Female 0.0899 (0.174) 0.0408 (0.182) -0.00104 (0.189) -0.0286 (0.145) 0.0536 (0.155) 0.0347 (0.160) Black -0.266 (0.180) -0.317* (0.190) -0.260 (0.192) --- Schooling Low quintile 0.359* (0.208) 0.335 (0.216) 0.321 (0.217) 0.362** (0.153) 0.434*** 0.425** (0.170) Higher grade math or science -0.195 (0.178) -0.207 (0.188) -0.227 (0.197) -0.193 (0.275) -0.226 (0.296) -0.125 (0.314) Higher education SET degree -0.167 (0.232) -0.242 (0.246) 0.0111 -0.0831 (0.228) Commerce degree (0.230) -0.160 0.367** (0.169) 0.231 (0.181) Distinction -0.120 (0.293) -0.303 (0.312) 0.238 (0.280) 0.0866 (0.305) Employment characteristics Public sector -0.256 (0.266) -0.116 (0.177) Part-time -0.0233 0.551* (0.282) Permanent -0.466** (0.195) -0.399** (0.168) _cons -1.239*** (0.212) -1.133*** (0.227) -0.718*** (0.260) -1.375*** (0.152) -1.505*** (0.187) -1.166*** (0.250) (unweighted) N 376 368 354 504 437 418 Notes: Standard errors in parentheses. The data are weighted. Marginal effects reported.

Conclusions: Study choice has limited impact on employment or job matching Disadvantages in schooling quality carrying over into the labour market (even for successful graduates) Several possible points of efficiencies/blockages Signalling vs. matching/social networking?