Public & Private Sector response to the 2016/17 Drought

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Presentation transcript:

Public & Private Sector response to the 2016/17 Drought 3rd Annual Stakeholder Conference Public & Private Sector response to the 2016/17 Drought The State of Play (Session 3)

ReNAPRI Scenario – Maputo(2015) What were the assumptions on El Nino back in October 2015? Below average yield levels in 2016 in South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe 15 % reduction from baseline in SA and Zimbabwe 7.5% reduction from baseline in Zambia Yield levels across the rest of the region are maintained at baseline levels 2014 2015 2016 (Baseline) 2016 (Scenario) 2016 (Actual) South Africa 4.84 t/ha 3.35 t/ha 4.57 t/ha 3.88 t/ha 3.21 t/ha Zambia 2.36 t/ha 1.95 t/ha 2.32 t/ha 2.14 t/ha 2.2t/ha Zimbabwe 0.85 t/ha 0.48 t/ha 0.80 t/ha 0.68 t/ha 0.35 t/ha

ReNAPRI Scenario – Maputo(2015) Projected price impact of El Nino & border closure in Zambia Source: Davids, ReNAPRI network

Drought 2015/16 El Nino far more severe than anticipated – lowest rainfall since 1912

Impact of drought on production Projected price impact of El Nino & border closure in Zambia

Impact of drought on S&D 25% decline

Impact of drought on food prices Projected versus actual impact on prices Source: Davids, ReNAPR network

Impact of drought on trade flow Projected versus actual impact on trade flow Source: Davids, ReNAPR network

Availability of white maize Uncertainty of availability caused white maize futures to spike Jul 2017 futures Source: Grain SA

Impact on global white maize Significant premium of white above yellow– US supply response

Beyond the drought (2016/17) Production set to recover - predictions of normal/La Nina weather

Beyond the drought (2016/17) Drought will have a long-term impact on the livestock industry

END

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