Can science films make a difference? www.culturalcognition.net Can science films make a difference? Dan M. Kahan Yale University & 10^3 others

What am I talking about? ...

What am I talking about? ... But first . . . CCP/TBS eV.dence-based Science Filmmaking Initiative What? Who? Why? WTF?! But first . . .

What am I talking about? ... CCP/TBS eV.dence-based Science Filmmaking Initiative What? Who? Why? WTF?! But first . . . My own experience making a movie!

“They Saw a Protest . . .”

Did protestors cross the line between “speech” and “intimidation”?

Experimental Conditions Abortion Clinic Condition Recruitment Center Condition

Cultural Cognition WorldV.ews Hierarchy hierarchical Individualists hierarchical communitarians Individualism Communitarianism egalitarian Individualists egalitarian communitarians Egalitarianism

“They Saw a Protest”: Who decided what & when? abortion clinic recruitment center abortion clinic recruitment center Police Liable Police Enjoined

“They Saw a Protest”: Who decided what & when? Egal individ Egal individ abortion clinic recruitment center abortion clinic recruitment center Police Liable Police Enjoined

“They Saw a Protest”: Who decided what & when? Hierarch commun Hierarch commun Egal individ Egal individ abortion clinic recruitment center abortion clinic recruitment center Police Liable Police Enjoined

“They Saw a Protest”: Who decided what & when? Hierarch commun Hierarch commun Egal individ Egal individ abortion clinic recruitment center abortion clinic recruitment center Police Liable Police Enjoined

“They Saw a Protest”: Who decided what & when? Egal commun Egal commun Hierarch individ Hierarch individ abortion clinic recruitment center abortion clinic recruitment center Police Liable Police Enjoined

Pedestrians just not want to listen “They Saw a Protest”: Who saw what & when? Hierarch individ Egal individ Hierarch commun Hierarch individ Pct. Agree Hierarch commun Egal commun Egal individ Egal commun abortion clinic recruitment center abortion clinic recruitment center abortion clinic recruitment center abortion clinic recruitment center Protestors blocked Screamed in face Egal individ Egal commun Egal commun Egal individ Pct. Agree Hierarch individ Hierarch commun Hierarch individ Hierarch commun abortion clinic recruitment center abortion clinic recruitment center abortion clinic recruitment center abortion clinic recruitment center Pedestrians just not want to listen Police just annoyed

What am I talking about? ... I. Identity-protective Cognition

What am I talking about? ... I. Identity-protective Cognition II. Identity-protective Cognition & risk perception III. The perverse consequences of science comprehension Lab Remedies A. Two-channel model of science communication B. Science curiosity V. What to Do?

What am I talking about? ... I. Identity-protective Cognition II. Identity-protective Cognition & risk perception III. The perverse consequences of science comprehension Lab Remedies A. Two-channel model of science communication B. Science curiosity V. What to Do?

What am I talking about? ... I. Identity-protective Cognition II. Identity-protective Cognition & risk perception III. The perverse consequences of science comprehension Lab Remedies A. Two-channel model of science communication B. Science curiosity V. What to Do?

What am I talking about? ... I. Identity-protective Cognition II. Identity-protective Cognition & risk perception III. The perverse consequences of science comprehension Lab Remedies A. Two-channel model of science communication B. Science curiosity V. What to Do?

What am I talking about? ... I. Identity-protective Cognition II. Identity-protective Cognition & risk perception III. The perverse consequences of science comprehension Lab Remedies A. Two-channel model of science communication B. Science curiosity V. What to Do?

What am I talking about? ... I. Identity-protective Cognition II. Identity-protective Cognition & risk perception III. The perverse consequences of science comprehension Lab Remedies A. Two-channel model of science communication B. Science curiosity V. What to Do? 

Cultural Cognition WorldV.ews Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk Hierarchy Environment: climate, nuclear Gays military/gay parenting hierarchical Individualists hierarchical communitarians Marijuana legalization Anti-terrorism Guns/Gun Control cats/annoying varmints Abortion & women's health Individualism Communitarianism Gays military/gay parenting Environment: climate, nuclear Marijuana legalization Anti-terrorism Guns/Gun Control egalitarian Individualists egalitarian communitarians cats/annoying varmints Abortion & women's health Egalitarianism

Cultural Cognition WorldV.ews Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk Hierarchy Environment: climate, nuclear Guns/Gun Control Individualism Communitarianism Environment: climate, nuclear Guns/Gun Control Egalitarianism

(science inconclusive) Climate Change High Risk (science conclusive) Low Risk (science inconclusive)

Geologic Isolation of Nuclear Wastes High Risk (not safe) Low Risk (safe)

Concealed Carry Laws High Risk (Increase crime) Low Risk (Decrease Crime)

Egalitarian Communitarian Hierarchical Individualist Featured scientist is a knowledgeable and credible expert on ... Egalitarian Communitarian More Likely to Agree Hierarchical Individualist More Likely to Agree Pct. Point Difference in Likelihood of Selecting Response 60% 40% 20% 0 20% 40% 60% 54% Climate Change 72% 22% Nuclear Power 31% 58% Concealed Carry 61%

Cultural Cognition WorldV.ews Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk Hierarchy Environment: climate, nuclear Guns/Gun Control Individualism Communitarianism Environment: climate, nuclear Guns/Gun Control Egalitarianism

Cultural Cognition WorldV.ews Perceived Scientific Consensus: Low Risk High Risk Hierarchy Environment: climate, nuclear Guns/Gun Control Individualism Communitarianism Environment: climate, nuclear Guns/Gun Control Egalitarianism

What am I talking about? ... I. Identity-protective Cognition II. Identity-protective Cognition & risk perception III. The perverse consequences of science comprehension Lab Remedies A. Two-channel model of science communication B. Science curiosity V. What to Do?  

Bounded rationality thesis . . .

perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” BRT prediction: knowledge deficit & Bounded Rationality Greater High Sci. literacy/System 2 (“slow”) perceived risk (z-score) Low Sci. literacy/System 1 (“fast”) Lesser

perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Greater Risk BRT prediction BRT prediction actual variance actual variance perceived risk (z-score) Lesser Risk low high low high Science literacy Numeracy

Hierarch Individualist Egalitarian Communitarian “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” BRT variance CC variance Greater Greater perceived risk (z-score) perceived risk (z-score) Lesser Lesser Low High Hierarch Individualist Egalitarian Communitarian Science comprehension

Hierarch Individualist Egalitarian Communitarian “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Mine is bigger! BRT variance CC variance Greater Greater perceived risk (z-score) perceived risk (z-score) Lesser Lesser Low High Hierarch Individualist Egalitarian Communitarian Science comprehension

Hierarch Individualist Egalitarian Communitarian “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” What is relationship of BRT & CC So what! BRT variance CC variance Greater Greater perceived risk (z-score) perceived risk (z-score) Lesser Lesser Low High Hierarch Individualist Egalitarian Communitarian Science comprehension

Hierarch Individualist Egalitarian Communitarian “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” BRT prediction: Culture as heuristic substitute BRT variance CC variance Greater Greater perceived risk (z-score) perceived risk (z-score) Lesser Lesser Low High Hierarch Individualist Egalitarian Communitarian Science comprehension

Hierarch Individualist Egalitarian Communitarian “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” BRT prediction: Culture as heuristic substitute BRT variance CC variance Greater Greater perceived risk (z-score) perceived risk (z-score) Lesser Lesser Low High Hierarch Individualist Egalitarian Communitarian Science comprehension

Egalitarian Communitarian Hierarchical Individualist “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” BRT Prediction Actual Result Greater Greater Egalitarian Communitarian perceived risk (z-score) perceived risk (z-score) Hierarchical Individualist Lesser Lesser Low High Low High Science comprehension Science comprehension

Egalitarian Communitarian Hierarchical Individualist “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” BRT Prediction Actual Result Greater Greater Egalitarian Communitarian perceived risk (z-score) perceived risk (z-score) Hierarchical Individualist Lesser Lesser Low High Low High Science comprehension Science comprehension

Egalitarian Communitarian Hierarchical Individualist “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” BRT Prediction Actual Result Greater Greater Low Sci/lit numeracy Egal Comm Egalitarian Communitarian High Sci lit/numeracy Egal Comm perceived risk (z-score) perceived risk (z-score) Hierarchical Individualist Lesser Lesser Low High Low High Science comprehension Science comprehension

Egalitarian Communitarian Hierarchical Individualist “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” BRT Prediction Actual Result Greater Greater Low Sci/lit numeracy Egal Comm Egalitarian Communitarian High Sci lit/numeracy Egal Comm perceived risk (z-score) perceived risk (z-score) Low Sci lit/num. Hierarch Individ High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Hierarchical Individualist Lesser Lesser Low High Low High Science comprehension Science comprehension

POLARIZATION INCREASES as science comprehension increases “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” POLARIZATION INCREASES as science comprehension increases BRT Prediction Actual Result Greater Greater Low Sci/lit numeracy Egal Comm Egalitarian Communitarian High Sci lit/numeracy Egal Comm High Sci lit/numeracy mean perceived risk (z-score) perceived risk (z-score) Low Sci lit/numeracy sample mean Low Sci lit/num. Hierarch Individ High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Hierarchical Individualist Lesser Lesser Low High Low High Science comprehension Science comprehension

Climate change Liberal Democrat Liberal Democrat Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Conservative Republican Conservative Republican

Conservative Republican Conservative Republican Fracking Liberal Democrat Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Conservative Republican

Conservative Republican Conservative Republican Private gun ownership Liberal Democrat Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Conservative Republican

The science communication wall . . .

The science communication wall . . . Not too little rationality, but too much.

The science communication wall . . . Not too little rationality, but too much.

The science communication wall . . . Tragedy of the science communications commons

2006 2011 2014

Impact of climate documentaries on acceptance of human-caused climate change Democrat Pct. accepting Republican source: Gallup

Impact of climate documentaries on acceptance of human-caused climate change Democrat Pct. accepting Republican source: Gallup

The science communication wall . . .

What am I talking about? ... I. Identity-protective Cognition II. Identity-protective Cognition & risk perception III. The perverse consequences of science comprehension Lab Remedies A. Two-channel model of science communication B. Science curiosity V. What to Do?   

What am I talking about? ... I. Identity-protective Cognition II. Identity-protective Cognition & risk perception III. The perverse consequences of science comprehension Lab Remedies A. Two-channel model of science communication B. Science curiosity V. What to Do?   

Two Channel Communication Strategy channel 1: content Risk Perception Information channel 2: meaning

study_dismiss scale (α = 0.85)

Cultural Cognition WorldV.ews Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk Hierarchy dismiss study Individualism Communitarianism credit study Egalitarianism

Control Condition

Anti-pollution Condition

Geoengineering Condition

Two Channel Communication Strategy channel 1: content Risk Perception Information channel 2: meaning

Anti-pollution Condition

Study dismissiveness Study dismissiveness Study dismiss Study dismiss Hierarch Individ Study dismiss Hierarch Individ Egal Commun Egal Commun Credit Credit anti-pollution anti-pollution

Study dismissiveness Study dismissiveness Study dismiss Study dismiss Hierarch Individ Study dismiss Hierarch Individ Egal Commun Egal Commun Credit Credit anti-pollution anti-pollution

Geoengineering Condition

Study dismissiveness Study dismissiveness Study dismiss Study dismiss Hierarch Individ Study dismiss Hierarch Individ Egal Commun Egal Commun Credit Credit anti-pollution anti-pollution

Study dismissiveness Study dismissiveness Study dismiss Study dismiss Hierarch Individ Study dismiss Hierarch Individ Egal Commun Egal Commun Credit Credit anti-pollution anti-pollution

Polarization more polarization Study dismiss less polarization anti-pollution

What am I talking about? ... I. Identity-protective Cognition II. Identity-protective Cognition & risk perception III. The perverse consequences of science comprehension Lab Remedies A. Two-channel model of science communication B. Science curiosity V. What to Do?    

“Science Curiosity Scale”

Your Inner Fish Mass Extinction: Life at the Brink Darwin’s Dangerous Idea

Science curiosity scale (percentile) -1.5 -1 -.5 .5 1 1.5 1st 16th 50th 84th 99th Mass Extinction Engagement Index Science curiosity scale (percentile) Bars denote 0.95 level of confidence

Science curiosity scale (percentile) Mass Extinction Engagement Index Darwin’s Dangerous Idea Your Inner Fish Science curiosity scale (percentile) Bars denote 0.95 level of confidence

Bars denote 0.95 level of confidence

YES Q. Are “curious” members of the public more likely to examine new evidence that confounds their ideologies? YES Effect of curiosity on selection of ideologically uncongenial story probability of choosing surprising “skeptical” study probability of choosing surprising “concerned” study

What am I talking about? ... I. Identity-protective Cognition II. Identity-protective Cognition & risk perception III. The perverse consequences of science comprehension Lab Remedies A. Two-channel model of science communication B. Science curiosity V. What to Do?     

Skitsnack Bull Shit!

What am I talking about? ... I. Identity-protective Cognition II. Identity-protective Cognition & risk perception III. The perverse consequences of science comprehension IV. Lab Remedies A. Two-channel model of science communication B. Science curiosity V. What to Do? You tell me!     

Two-channel model of science communication

What am I talking about? ... I. Identity-protective Cognition II. Identity-protective Cognition & risk perception III. The perverse consequences of science comprehension IV. Lab Remedies A. Two-channel model of science communication B. Science curiosity V. What to Do? You tell me!      

Cultural Cognition Cat Scan Experiment Go to www.culturalcognition.net!