Population Growth... And Problems IB SL

The Twentieth Century: The Demographic Century

WORLD POPULATION mid 2000 – 6.067 billion grows by 81 million every year 220,000 each day annual rate of growth 1.4 percent

ANNUAL RATE OF WORLD POPULATION GROWTH

LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH ‘The average number of years a person can expect to live if the age specific pattern of mortality which prevails at the time of their birth is maintained throughout their lifetime’.

FACTORS INVOLVED IN LEDC MORTALITY DECLINE Personal Education Improved Nutrition Lower Fertility Health Interventions Water Supply Improvement Immunisation Public Health Programs Control of Infectious Disease

HIV/AIDS 20 million already died 45 million new infections by 2010 Now 4th leading cause of death 2003 - 3 million deaths - 2.3 million in Sub-Saharan Africa

AFRICA Projected population in 2050 – 1 billion 350 million less than it would have been without HIV/AIDS

THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONS Food Resource use Environment Degradation

FOOD NEEDS REQUIRED IN 2050 Africa 3.14 times present Asia 1.69 Oceania 1.61 Europe 0.91

ARABLE LAND IN RELATION TO POPULATION 1961 - 0.32 ha per person 1995 - 0.18 ha per person 2050 - 0.12 ha per person

CURRENT GLOBAL FOOD SITUATION 1 billion out of the 6 billion people in the world are farmers 3,800 calories per person per day (minimum 2,500) If everyone adopted vegetarian diets and no food wasted, world would currently feed 10 billion people However, 843 million people are hungry and malnourished

CAPACITY OF EARTH TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND FOOD PRODUCTION IS LIMITED BY: Available Land High Cost of Green Revolution Degradation of Environment

World population is likely to stabilise at a population of around 9 billion in the second half of the century Enough food can be produced to feed them if: address environmental problems agricultural technology continues to advance stabilise population growth

LEDCs… Need to reduce population growth Need to increase per capita consumption Need to substitute renewable for non-renewable resources Improve exploitation practices 11 million ha tropical forest lost 26 billion tons of topsoil lost 6 million ha new desert 160 million ha watershed damaged Groundwater pollution and depletion Degradation of immigration systems

MEDCs… Population growth already low Need to reduce per capita consumption Need to substitute renewable for non-renewable resources Improve exploitation practices

Each Year… 11 million ha tropical forest lost 26 billion tons of topsoil lost 6 million ha new desert 160 million ha watershed damaged Groundwater pollution and depletion Degradation of immigration systems

Policies Needed in LDCs to Achieve Maximum Demographic Impact (Bongaarts 1994) Reduce unwanted pregnancy (family planning programs) Reduce demand for large families (investment in human development especially of women) Slow down momentum of population growth (raising average age of childbearing and reducing family size)

CONCLUSION Room for optimism in global population trends No room for complacency Some danger signs Must not see population as a silver bullet solution to environmental problems There is a dire need for population policies at national and global levels Such policy needs to consider environmental factors but also equity, economic wellbeing, social justice