The Path to Peace in Syria By Dr. Evan Hoffman Sr. Associate, Canadian International Institute of Applied Negotiation (CIIAN) November, 2016. ehoffman@ciian.org l www.ciian.org

Is peace possible in Syria? Can't answer that question without looking at Iraq, Turkey, ISIS (Daesh) and the role of many other regional & international actors. A very complex situation with many overlapping layers and competing regional + international interests at play.

4 Possible Outcomes 1 – Ongoing war with possible regional expansion. Worst outcome and perhaps most likely. 2- No war, no peace. A better outcome but not very likely. 3- Positive peace. The best outcome but also the least likely. 4- Negative peace. The most realistic, peaceful option to aim for given the current conflict dynamics.

What are the paths to peace? The ‘current path’ is that Iraqi government (with support from the coalition forces) violently cripples ISIS enough that they can establish a fragile, negative peace. ISIS will go underground and into Syria but continue to launch violent attacks as their aspirations for statehood haven’t changed. The ‘least likely path’ is that the international community steps up military intervention with boots on the ground thus imposing & enforcing an external peace on the parties. The ‘partition and contain path’ is that the parties divide, occupy and rule distinct territories carved out for the Syrian government region, Syrian rebel region, Iraq sate-controlled areas, etc. to live in an uneasy negative peace with their new neighbors. The ‘Diplomatic Path’ is that a mediated solution is found that results in a comprehensive peace agreement.

Peace is possible (maybe)… I believe we are firmly headed down the Current Path and the international community should take appropriate steps now to prepare for this situation.

Implications for peace workers Fully explore the feasibility of the Partition & Contain strategy. If deemed possible, direct new resources towards it. Continue to support the Diplomatic Path. Build political will. Hope for a major shift to the conflict dynamics to create a ripening of the conflict. Otherwise, if we stay on the Current Path there is a need to: Ensure that international rules of war are followed (Geneva conventions) Minimize humanitarian suffering through aid & relief efforts (no fly zone, zones of peace & humanitarian corridors/ceasefires) Plan for a security environment where ISIS is temporarily disrupted but moves underground Reconcile differences in recently liberated areas + address justice issues Reconstruct war-torn areas Discourage ISIS from re-forming/morphing/transforming and/or re-taking territory (limit arms, try ISIS leaders for war crimes, change narratives about ISIS, freeze ISIS assets, etc.)