Prospects of creating a CDM project pipeline in the Philippines 3rd Asian Regional Workshop on CD4CDM 23rd March 2004 Siem Reap, Cambodia

Contents Emissions inventory Carbon mitigation potential Renewable energy plans LULUCF potential Potential projects starting to enter the pipeline

1994 Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1. Emissions inventory 1994 Greenhouse Gas Inventory

GHG Emissions from the Energy Sector

GHG Emissions from the Industrial Sector

GHG Emissions from the Agriculture Sector

GHG Emissions from the Waste Sector

GHG Emissions and Sinks in the LUCF Sector

2. Carbon mitigation potentials

Source 2002 to 2012 PEP

CO2 Emissions from Energy Sector (PEP 2001 – 2011)

Potential CO2 Avoidance from Energy Efficiency Programs (PEP 2001 – 2011) Energy Mgt Services – help C&I establishments in identifying effective measures towards wiser and efficient use of energy. Provided by government such as audit, financing, recognition programs and Partnership for Energy-Responsive Eco-Zone (PEREZ). Information and education campaign such as Power Patrol Government ENERCON Program - all government offices are mandated to reduce their electricity and fuel consumption by 10 percent and submit monthly reports to the DOE. System Loss Reduction HRI – bring the actual performance of all generating plants close to optimum level by improvement in operational capability of the old thermal plants, increase plant output, improve operational efficiency, extend plant life and reduce operating costs. Efficiency/Energy Labelling and Standard – improve the efficiency/performance of appliances, equipment and other energy consuming devices. Demand Side Management – ENergy efficiency programs in the power sector will defer the construction of 450 MW of additional plant capacity Participants working or have experienced in the energy sector shall be asked of the specific programs and activities of their respective offices and the reasons/criteria for implementing such activity. The reasons shall be listed and used in the Session No. 3.

CDM POTENTIAL PROJECTS Asia Least-Cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy (ALGAS) analyzed mitigation of 12 Asian countries, including the Philippines Philippine project priority areas: energy transport agriculture wastes

Philippine GHG Abatement Cost and Potential Source: ALGAS

SPECIFIC WIND POTENTIAL POWER SITES MINDORO ISLAND-ORIENTAL BATANES 1,100 KW CASIGURAN 500 kW NORTHERN LUZON 120 MW POLILLO ISLAND 500 kW MARINDUQUE ISLAND 3,000 kW CATANDUANES 2,250 kW LUBANG ISLAND 330 kW TABLAS ISLAND 1,500 kW MINDORO ISLAND-ORIENTAL 13,500 kW ROMBLON ISLAND 1,000 kW BUSUANGA ISLAND 330 kW MASBATE ISLAND 3,000 kW CUYO ISLAND 330 kW DINAGAT ISLAND 3,000 kW PALAWAN ISLAND 9,000 kW POTENTIAL CAPACITY: 160,340 kW SIQUIJOR ISLAND 1,000 kW

Solar Energy Resource Potential Average insolation of 5- 6 kWh/sq. m/day all throughout the country The country is also endowed with other NRE sources. A study conducted by the US-National Renewable Energy Laboratory in 2000 showed that the country’s wind resources has over 10,000 km² with 70,000 MW of potential installed capacity. Micro-hydro applications, on the other hand, has potential capacity of at least 500 kW in No. Luzon & Mindanao. The study also estimated that the national solar radiation has annual potential average of 5.0 - 5.1 kWh per square meter per day. This means that technologies such as solar photovoltaics and solar water heaters are viable in the country. The country's ocean resource area is 1,000 square kilometers mainly due to its archipelagic nature. Several studies claimed that the country has huge ocean energy resources in form of ocean thermal, ocean current, and ocean waves that could be harnessed for power generation. (NEXT SLIDE)

3. Renewable energy plans Philippine Energy Plan Department of Energy

OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SECTOR 1st Nine Months Y-O-Y NPC Power Generation 2002 2003 Energy self-sufficiency level which increased from 45.5% in 2001 to 50.9% in 2002 will continue to be above 50% in 2003. This will be the result of the projected increase in natural gas production from 11.2 MMBFOE in 2002 to 26.3MMBFOE in 2003 NPC Generation : 27,917.41 GWh Renewable Power Mix: 45% NPC Generation : 29,447.58 GWh Renewable Power Mix: 47%

RE POLICY FRAMEWORK Increase RE-based capacity by 100% by 2012 Long – Term Objectives Increase RE-based capacity by 100% by 2012 Be the No.1 geothermal energy producer in the world Be the No. 1 wind energy producer in SE Asia Double hydro capacity by 2012 New contribution of biomass, solar and ocean by 131 MW Become a regional solar manufacturing export hub Increase non-power contribution of RE to the energy mix by 10 MMBFOE within the next ten years Still in the RE framework, we have set a very ambitious RE targets for the next ten years as follows: 1. Increase RE-based capacity by 100% 2. Be the No. 1 geothermal energy producer in the world. Currently, we are no. 2 next only to the US. But we are confident, that with an increase private sector participation in this sector, we could make it to no. 1 3. Be the No. 1 wind energy producer in SE Asia. 4. Double hydro capacity by 2012 5. New contribution of biomass, solar and ocean by 131 MW 6. Become the regional solar manufacturing export hub. Just recently, Cypress Sun Power of Texas has finally committed to set up the first ever solar fab manufacturing facility in S.E. Asia. Initially, for 25MW capacity and to slowly double the capacity to 50MW 7. Increase non-power contribution of RE to the energy mix by 10 MMBFOE

RE POLICY FRAMEWORK 10 – Year Targets, MW TOTAL 4,449 4,698 9,147 2002 Target Add’l. 2013 Capacity Geothermal 1,931 1,200 3,131 Hydro 2,518 2,950 5,468 Wind 0 417 417 Solar, Biomass, Ocean 0 131 131 Just a summary of our target additional RE capacity for the next ten years. TOTAL 4,449 4,698 9,147

4. LULUCF potential

Potential CDM forestry projects 1. Reforestation and tree plantations could easily meet requirements for additionality 2. Agroforestry and community forestry greatest socio-economic benefits risks may be greater 3. Dendrothermal power plants Ipil-ipil fed power plants

“CDM”able Forest Lands

Potential forest lands for CDM those the need to be permanently forested: critical watersheds, forest reserves, IPAS sites (4.6 M ha) degraded land areas: 3.5 M ha

Example of Degraded Watershed Lasco and Pulhin, 2003

Imperata grasslands cover > 2 M ha

5. Potential projects starting to enter the pipeline

Potential projects Being considered by World Bank Prototype Carbon Fund Endorsed by the Philippine Inter-Agency Committee on Climate Change Received “Letter of No Objection” from the Secretary of the Department of Environment & Natural Resources

POTENTIAL CDM PROJECTS Northwind Wind Power Northwind Wind Power Project Project site located in Bangui, Ilocos Norte Total installed capacity of 25.5 MW Estimated emission reduction potential of 76,218 tCO2e annually Based on the US-NREL resource mapping, the Philippines has high wind power potential with as much as 70,000 MW. Region I, the Ilocos Region has the highest wind power potential. Not far from the PNOC-EDC’s North Luzon Wind Power Project in Burgos, Ilocos Norte, Northwind Power of Denmark is developing a 25.5 MW wind project in Bangui Bay, Ilocos Norte.

POTENTIAL CDM PROJECTS Talisay Cogeneration Plant Proposed cogeneration plant to utilize waste product of sugar cane Host facility is First Farmers Holding Corporation (FFHC) Consists of 2 x 85 t/h boilers delivering steam at 65 barg and 480°C and a single condensing steam turbine generator unit with a rating of 30 MW Estimated emission reduction potential 54,457 to 133,466 tCO2e annually

POTENTIAL CDM PROJECTS Victorias Bagasse Cogeneration Proposed cogeneration plant to utilize waste product of sugar cane To be located at the Victorias Milling facility Consists of 2 x 160 t/h boilers delivering steam at 65 barg & 480°C & a single back pressure steam turbine generator unit with a rating of 50 MW Emission reduction potential 71,329 to 182,896 tCO2e annually

Maraming salamat!! Roberto C. Yap, Ph.D. Environmental Economist klima – Climate Change Center Manila Observatory Philippines Tel +63 2 426-6144 Fax +63 2 426-6070 rcyap@ateneo.edu