Peculiar Velocity Moments

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Bayesian Learning & Estimation Theory
Advertisements

Modeling of Data. Basic Bayes theorem Bayes theorem relates the conditional probabilities of two events A, and B: A might be a hypothesis and B might.
ECE 8443 – Pattern Recognition LECTURE 05: MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION Objectives: Discrete Features Maximum Likelihood Resources: D.H.S: Chapter 3 (Part.
Chapter 7. Statistical Estimation and Sampling Distributions
Estimation  Samples are collected to estimate characteristics of the population of particular interest. Parameter – numerical characteristic of the population.
Visual Recognition Tutorial
Lecture 9 Inexact Theories. Syllabus Lecture 01Describing Inverse Problems Lecture 02Probability and Measurement Error, Part 1 Lecture 03Probability and.
Minimaxity & Admissibility Presenting: Slava Chernoi Lehman and Casella, chapter 5 sections 1-2,7.
Estimation of parameters. Maximum likelihood What has happened was most likely.
Today Today: Chapter 9 Assignment: 9.2, 9.4, 9.42 (Geo(p)=“geometric distribution”), 9-R9(a,b) Recommended Questions: 9.1, 9.8, 9.20, 9.23, 9.25.
Independent Component Analysis (ICA) and Factor Analysis (FA)
Linear and generalised linear models Purpose of linear models Least-squares solution for linear models Analysis of diagnostics Exponential family and generalised.
Regression Eric Feigelson. Classical regression model ``The expectation (mean) of the dependent (response) variable Y for a given value of the independent.
Today Wrap up of probability Vectors, Matrices. Calculus
Chapter Two Probability Distributions: Discrete Variables
EE513 Audio Signals and Systems Statistical Pattern Classification Kevin D. Donohue Electrical and Computer Engineering University of Kentucky.
The maximum likelihood method Likelihood = probability that an observation is predicted by the specified model Plausible observations and plausible models.
ECE 8443 – Pattern Recognition LECTURE 06: MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD AND BAYESIAN ESTIMATION Objectives: Bias in ML Estimates Bayesian Estimation Example Resources:
Lecture 12 Statistical Inference (Estimation) Point and Interval estimation By Aziza Munir.
Geo479/579: Geostatistics Ch12. Ordinary Kriging (1)
Modern Navigation Thomas Herring
ECE 8443 – Pattern Recognition ECE 8423 – Adaptive Signal Processing Objectives: Signal and Noise Models SNIR Maximization Least-Squares Minimization MMSE.
Ch 2. Probability Distributions (1/2) Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning, C. M. Bishop, Summarized by Yung-Kyun Noh and Joo-kyung Kim Biointelligence.
CS 782 – Machine Learning Lecture 4 Linear Models for Classification  Probabilistic generative models  Probabilistic discriminative models.
Parameter estimation. 2D homography Given a set of (x i,x i ’), compute H (x i ’=Hx i ) 3D to 2D camera projection Given a set of (X i,x i ), compute.
Image Restoration.
PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS FOR ENGINEERING Hossein Sameti Department of Computer Engineering Sharif University of Technology Principles of Parameter Estimation.
Generalised method of moments approach to testing the CAPM Nimesh Mistry Filipp Levin.
Geology 5670/6670 Inverse Theory 21 Jan 2015 © A.R. Lowry 2015 Read for Fri 23 Jan: Menke Ch 3 (39-68) Last time: Ordinary Least Squares Inversion Ordinary.
6dF Workshop April Sydney Cosmological Parameters from 6dF and 2MRS Anaïs Rassat (University College London) 6dF workshop, AAO/Sydney,
5. Maximum Likelihood –II Prof. Yuille. Stat 231. Fall 2004.
Gaussian Processes For Regression, Classification, and Prediction.
Bulk Motions of Spiral Galaxies within z = 0.03 I.D.Karachentsev (SAO RAS ), S.N.Mitronova (SAO RAS), V.E.Karachentseva (Kiev Univ.), Yu.N.Kudrya (Kiev.
Autoregressive (AR) Spectral Estimation
Lecture 1: Basic Statistical Tools. A random variable (RV) = outcome (realization) not a set value, but rather drawn from some probability distribution.
Statistics Sampling Distributions and Point Estimation of Parameters Contents, figures, and exercises come from the textbook: Applied Statistics and Probability.
Maximum likelihood estimators Example: Random data X i drawn from a Poisson distribution with unknown  We want to determine  For any assumed value of.
Chance Constrained Robust Energy Efficiency in Cognitive Radio Networks with Channel Uncertainty Yongjun Xu and Xiaohui Zhao College of Communication Engineering,
CWR 6536 Stochastic Subsurface Hydrology
1 Information Content Tristan L’Ecuyer. 2 Degrees of Freedom Using the expression for the state vector that minimizes the cost function it is relatively.
Ch 2. Probability Distributions (1/2) Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning, C. M. Bishop, Summarized by Joo-kyung Kim Biointelligence Laboratory,
Parameter Estimation. Statistics Probability specified inferred Steam engine pump “prediction” “estimation”
CHAPTER 4 ESTIMATES OF MEAN AND ERRORS. 4.1 METHOD OF LEAST SQUARES I n Chapter 2 we defined the mean  of the parent distribution and noted that the.
Computacion Inteligente Least-Square Methods for System Identification.
Mapping the Mass with Galaxy Redshift-Distance Surveys Martin Hendry, Dept of Physics and Astronomy University of Glasgow, UK “Mapping the Mass”: Birmingham,
Estimation Econometría. ADE.. Estimation We assume we have a sample of size T of: – The dependent variable (y) – The explanatory variables (x 1,x 2, x.
Presentation : “ Maximum Likelihood Estimation” Presented By : Jesu Kiran Spurgen Date :
Estimating standard error using bootstrap
Constraints on cosmological parameters from the 6dF Galaxy Survey
2MASS Tully-Fisher Survey
Cosmology with Peculiar Velocities: Observational Effects
Deep Feedforward Networks
STATISTICS POINT ESTIMATION
12. Principles of Parameter Estimation
LECTURE 06: MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION
Probability Theory and Parameter Estimation I
Parameter Estimation 主講人:虞台文.
NRCSE 2. Covariances.
Maximum Likelihood Estimation
Dept of Physics and Astronomy University of Glasgow, UK
Statistics Branch of mathematics dealing with the collection, analysis, interpretation, presentation, and organization of data. Practice or science of.
Modelling data and curve fitting
Where did we stop? The Bayes decision rule guarantees an optimal classification… … But it requires the knowledge of P(ci|x) (or p(x|ci) and P(ci)) We.
EE513 Audio Signals and Systems
CHAPTER – 1.2 UNCERTAINTIES IN MEASUREMENTS.
12. Principles of Parameter Estimation
Combining Noisy Measurements
CHAPTER – 1.2 UNCERTAINTIES IN MEASUREMENTS.
Modeling Spatial Phenomena
Optimization under Uncertainty
Presentation transcript:

Peculiar Velocity Moments for Estimating Flows on 100 h-1 Mpc Scales Hume A. Feldman Physics & Astronomy University of Kansas Hume A. Feldman Flows on 100 h-1 Mpc scales 43rd Rencontres de Moriond

Local Group Velocity (20th Century Version) Survey l b |VLG| VCMB 271o +29o 620 km / s VLP 220o –28o 561 ± 284 km / s VRPK 260o +54o 600 ± 350 km / s VSMAC 195o 0o 700 ± 250 km / s VLP10k 173o +63o 1000 ± 500 km / s VSC 180o 0o 100 ± 150 km / s Hume A. Feldman Flows on 100 h-1 Mpc scales 43rd Rencontres de Moriond

Hume A. Feldman Flows on 100 h-1 Mpc scales 43rd Rencontres de Moriond

¿¿¿ Why ??? In large scale observations we look for Estimators We try to estimate an underlying quantity Estimator = True quantity ⊗ Window function e.g. Hume A. Feldman Flows on 100 h-1 Mpc scales 43rd Rencontres de Moriond

Hume A. Feldman Flows on 100 h-1 Mpc scales 43rd Rencontres de Moriond

Velocity Fields The Modern Version Sarkar, HAF & Watkins, MNRAS 375 691-697 (2007) Watkins & HAF, MNRAS 379, 343-348 (2007) HAF & Watkins, arXiv:0802.2961 (2008) HAF, Watkins & Hudson, in Preparation Hume A. Feldman Flows on 100 h-1 Mpc scales 43rd Rencontres de Moriond

Likelihood Methods for Peculiar Velocities A catalog of peculiar velocities galaxies, labeled by an index n Positions rn Estimates of the line-of-sight peculiar velocities Sn Uncertainties σn Assume that observational errors are Gaussian distributed. Model the velocity field as a uniform streaming motion, or bulk flow, denoted by U, about which are random motions drawn from a Gaussian distribution with a 1-D velocity dispersion σ* Hume A. Feldman Flows on 100 h-1 Mpc scales 43rd Rencontres de Moriond

Likelihood Methods for Peculiar Velocities Likelihood function for the bulk flow components Maximum likelihood solution for bulk flow where Hume A. Feldman Flows on 100 h-1 Mpc scales 43rd Rencontres de Moriond

Likelihood Methods for Peculiar Velocities The measured peculiar velocity of galaxy n A Gaussian with zero mean and variance Theoretical covariance matrix for the bulk flow components Hume A. Feldman Flows on 100 h-1 Mpc scales 43rd Rencontres de Moriond

Comparing Velocity Field Surveys Hume A. Feldman Flows on 100 h-1 Mpc scales 43rd Rencontres de Moriond

Improve window function design Can we do better? Get rid of small scale aliasing Improve window function design Hume A. Feldman Flows on 100 h-1 Mpc scales 43rd Rencontres de Moriond

Window Function Design The BF Maximum Likelihood Estimates of the weights (MLE) depends on the spatial distribution and the errors. Goal: Study motions on largest scales Require WF that have narrow peaks small amplitude outside peak Hume A. Feldman Flows on 100 h-1 Mpc scales 43rd Rencontres de Moriond

Window Function Design Consider an ideal survey Very large number of points Isotropic distribution Gaussian falloff Depth of the survey The moments are specified by the weights that minimize the variance Hume A. Feldman Flows on 100 h-1 Mpc scales 43rd Rencontres de Moriond

Window Function Design Expand out the variance since the measurement error included in is uncorrelated with the bulk flow . Minimize this expression with respect to Hume A. Feldman Flows on 100 h-1 Mpc scales 43rd Rencontres de Moriond

Window Function Design For bulk flow moments: where Hume A. Feldman Flows on 100 h-1 Mpc scales 43rd Rencontres de Moriond

Window Function Design Enforce this constraint using Lagrange multiplier Minimize with respect to Hume A. Feldman Flows on 100 h-1 Mpc scales 43rd Rencontres de Moriond

Window Function Design Matrix form individual velocity covariance matrix Hume A. Feldman Flows on 100 h-1 Mpc scales 43rd Rencontres de Moriond

Window Function Design Solving to get the optimal weights Minimum Variance (MV) weights Hume A. Feldman Flows on 100 h-1 Mpc scales 43rd Rencontres de Moriond

Peculiar Velocity Surveys Hume A. Feldman Flows on 100 h-1 Mpc scales 43rd Rencontres de Moriond

Window Function Design Hume A. Feldman Flows on 100 h-1 Mpc scales 43rd Rencontres de Moriond

Window Function Design Hume A. Feldman Flows on 100 h-1 Mpc scales 43rd Rencontres de Moriond

Window Function Design Hume A. Feldman Flows on 100 h-1 Mpc scales 43rd Rencontres de Moriond

Comparing Surveys Hume A. Feldman Flows on 100 h-1 Mpc scales 43rd Rencontres de Moriond

Comparing Surveys Hume A. Feldman Flows on 100 h-1 Mpc scales 43rd Rencontres de Moriond

Power Spectrum Parameter Estimation Hume A. Feldman Flows on 100 h-1 Mpc scales 43rd Rencontres de Moriond

Conclusions Given appropriate window functions, velocity field surveys are consistent with each other. Bulk Flow Measurements agree. Maximum Likelihood parameter estimation are robust and mostly agree with other methods. Seems to be systematic bias towards large or small scale flow Optimization of window functions removes the bias and shows the flow Hume A. Feldman Flows on 100 h-1 Mpc scales 43rd Rencontres de Moriond

Thank you Lagrange Peculiar Velocity Likelihood The End Multiplier Field Multiplier weight Covariance Matrix Hume A. Feldman Flows on 100 h-1 Mpc scales 43rd Rencontres de Moriond