"GS" - Social and Cultural Geography Blossoming evolution – a synthesis of long-term evolutionary global worldviews “Globalistics 2013” conference, theme “Global Evolutionism”, Lomonosov State University Moscow, Russian Federation Gilbert Ahamer, Mattersburg Circle for Development Policy at Austrian Universities © Gilbert Ahamer (c) Gilbert Ahamer

What will we see here? Contemplate theoretical “clarities” along your paths World systems theory Critical geography Dependency theory Quantitative revolution Growth theory Possibilism Narrative history Environm. determinism Neo-classical economics Keynesian economics Political economics Global Studies train: “When do I use which theory?”

What will we do here? Act along some of these lines: run your paths contemplate... … & act! Images: Olympia; temple of Zeus, stadium, map of sanctuary

Views from social, economic and cultural geographies 1. Views from social, economic and cultural geographies Global Studies 4 Gilbert Ahamer

The “magnetic field” of our globalisation discourse "GS" - Social and Cultural Geography The “magnetic field” of our globalisation discourse Modernisation theory The concept of modernisation tries to replace earlier concepts such as “development” (in case of negative sign: underdevelopment, backwardness) or progress by a value-free term but is never-theless still tacitly used connected with an emphasis on values and teleological orientation. Dependency theory Reason for underdevelopment of countries would not be internal but external factors such as especially colonialism. By executing power the developed countries would succeed in keeping the less developed countries in an ongoing state of poverty. Global Studies 5 Gilbert Ahamer (c) Gilbert Ahamer

“Why are some rich and some poor?” "GS" - Social and Cultural Geography “Why are some rich and some poor?” Classical “growth theory” tries to understand causes of economic growth, it sees economic growth constituted by “production factors” such as Capital / investment Soil / land Labour / workforce Technology Education Human resources … and cautiously extends out to cultural and political parameters … … and strongly believes in correlations of points …? ? Are economies converging or diverging over the course of time? Gilbert Ahamer Global Studies 6 See Paul Rosling’s (optimistic) view of development at gapminder, flixxy or youtube (c) Gilbert Ahamer

Main types of view of a global future Global Studies is a multi- paradigmatic science! Gilbert Ahamer Global Studies 7

Long-term trends in socio-economic and civilisational development 2. Long-term trends in socio-economic and civilisational development Global Studies 8 Gilbert Ahamer

Representing dynamics globally: data Materials and methods in this step: The “Global Change Data Base” (GCDB, © G. Ahamer) = Global data sets for population land use economy energy Gilbert Ahamer Global Studies 9

Transformation of co-ordinates "GS" - Social and Cultural Geography Transformation of co-ordinates Instead of plotting reality as a function of time We decide to plot reality as a function of GDP/cap … in order to better perceive structural changes and patterns of global dynamic change = real time: complex graphic structure  evolutionary time of development: simpler graphical structure time t GDP/cap Gilbert Ahamer Global Studies 10 (c) Gilbert Ahamer

Evolving pattern in economic structures "GS" - Social and Cultural Geography Evolving pattern in economic structures … inspired by evolving patterns in energy structures (Marchetti & Nakicenovic at IIASA): Gilbert Ahamer Global Studies 11 (c) Gilbert Ahamer

Growth rates in the global agricultural system Gilbert Ahamer Global Studies 12 Detailed explanation of this EU project: read here

Structural shifts for energy sources "GS" - Social and Cultural Geography Structural shifts for energy sources How do percentages of fuels change? shares change rates of shares (c) Gilbert Ahamer

We observe the following transitions: Population transition Land use change transition / deforestation tr. Agricultural & food transition Transition of economic sectors Energy transition Nonetheless, we don’t believe in determinism: design, act and construct the world! Hope = (voluntary) learning effects Gilbert Ahamer Global Studies 14

Evolution and change in structures of needs 3. Evolution and change in structures of needs Global Studies 15 Gilbert Ahamer

A principal evolutionary pattern? "GS" - Social and Cultural Geography initial value: flow = A principal evolutionary pattern? Evolution often seems to follow a sigma curve (saturation curve) Global Studies 16 Gilbert Ahamer (c) Gilbert Ahamer

Thinking in paths as a hypothesis ... ... means: along evolution towards higher GDP/cap some paths of development are more likely than others Possible heuristic confirmation by phenomena: establish correlations example: the “growth literature”: Y = f(“factors”) such as capital, land, human ressources, education, institutional structure ... Gilbert Ahamer Global Studies 17

A possible overall view on evolution! "GS" - Social and Cultural Geography A possible overall view on evolution! Do targets themselves evolve along evolution? ... the more targets are fulfilled, the more they seem to decrease in importance We see: systemic structures themselves evolve, not only levels of values Gilbert Ahamer Global Studies 18 (c) Gilbert Ahamer

A possible genesis of “targets”? "GS" - Social and Cultural Geography A possible genesis of “targets”? Global Studies 19 Gilbert Ahamer (c) Gilbert Ahamer

One ”preconceptive understanding” (Schumpeter) "GS" - Social and Cultural Geography One ”preconceptive understanding” (Schumpeter) A proposed paradigm (“para – deiknumi“ = “up-show”) Techno-socio-economic evolution Pierre Teilhard de Chardin (1950), a colleague of Vernadsky convergence – divergence? Gilbert Ahamer Global Studies 20 (c) Gilbert Ahamer

Paul Raskin: “Transitions” Paul Raskin at SEI and his team produced a seminal book (see ppt in WebCT) : Gilbert Ahamer Global Studies 21

Shifting views: a principle along evolution? Gilbert Ahamer Global Studies 22

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