Rising Carbon Dioxide Levels

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Presentation transcript:

Rising Carbon Dioxide Levels 650 ppm 530 ppm 430 ppm 380 ppm Parts per million 280 ppm Current with all GHGs 2050 with stable emissions 2100 with stable emissions Pre-industrial Current

Source: Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change.

Rising Carbon Dioxide Levels and Temperature Increases Level of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent Eventual Temperature Increase (°C), 5°C = 9°F

Climate Stabilization Wedges Source: Stephen Pacala; Robert Socolow (2004-08-13). "Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies". Science.

Actions that Can Provide One Wedge Double fuel efficiency of all passenger vehicles worldwide from 30 to 60 MPG. Decrease vehicle miles traveled by half (10,000 to 5,000 miles per year). Double the efficiency of all coal electricity plants. Replace existing coal electricity plants with a doubling of nuclear capacity. Replace 1400 coal electricity plants with natural gas plants. Increase worldwide ethanol production by a factor of 50. Increase worldwide wind electricity production by a factor of 50. Increase worldwide production of solar powered electricity by a factor of 700. Eliminate tropical deforestation and double forest replanting. Install 4 million wind turbines to generate hydrogen for fuel cell cars. Use best efficiency practices in all new residential and commercial buildings. Capture and store the emissions from 800 coal electricity plants. Source: Stephen Pacala; Robert Socolow (2004-08-13). "Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies". Science.

Carbon Tax Recommendations

Source: “Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions” How Much At What Cost?” Creyts, et al., McKinsey & Company, December 2007.

Earth Atmospheric Trust Proposal Global carbon emissions = 45 gigatons CO2e Permit auction price of $20-$80/ton = $0.9 to $3.6 trillion/year Return half of all revenues equally to 6.3 billion people Refund per person = $71 - $285 per year

Impact of EAT Dividends ($80/ton = $285/capita) Country GDP per Capita (2006) Cost Gain / Loss Ethiopia $617 $9 +$276 Uganda $865 $5 +280 Nigeria $1,562 $66 +219 India $2,393 $99 +$186 China $4,501 $309 -$24 United States $42,610 $1,647 -$1,362 Source: World Development Indicators Database.

Impact of EAT on Absolute Poverty - Ethiopia 59 million below $2/day 46 million below $1/day Source: Branko Milanovic inequality dataset.

Impact of EAT on Absolute Poverty - Ethiopia 54 million below $2/day 22 million below $1/day $1/day poverty reduced by 24 million (52%) Source: Branko Milanovic inequality dataset.

Greenhouse Development Rights

Greenhouse Development Rights

Greenhouse Development Rights

Greenhouse Development Rights

Global Inequality The bottom 50% of households in the world receive less than 8% of the world’s income. The top 10% of households in the world receive over half of all the world’s income. The minimum income needed to be in the highest 10% globally is about $17,000. The top 10% of households in the world own over 70% of all the world’s wealth. About half of that is owned by the top 1%.

EKC for SO2 Emissions

EKC for Carbon Emissions

Even with the high incomes in the United States, most people are not satisfied with their incomes.

Consumerism Data One-third of American households with income greater than $75,000 feel they spent nearly all their money on “the basic necessities of life.” About 85% of Americans aspire to be in the top income quintile. Only 15% of Americans are happy with a middle-class lifestyle. About two-thirds of American households are in credit card debt. Average credit card debt is over $8,000. One of the fastest-growing segments is college students.

Environmental Impacts of Consumerism Consider the environmental impacts of producing a computer: Making a computer requires over 700 materials and chemicals. Making a computer requires 7,300 gallons of water and 2,300 kW-hours of electricity (more than the computer will use). Computer processors weigh 1/50 of a pound but generate 89 pounds of waste, including 7 pounds of hazardous waste.

Environmental Impacts of Consumerism As people move from the global middle-class to the consumer class, their environmental impacts increase dramatically. Reason is that people don’t consume more of what they already have – they consume different things: Drive cars instead of bikes and public transportation Eat a meat-based diet instead of a grain-based diet Buy imported products (with significant transportation impacts) rather than local goods

Environmental Impacts of Consumerism Over-consumption is related to environmental impact based on the IPAT equation: env. impact = population * affluence * technology Technological progress reducing environmental impacts can be offset by increases in affluence. If consumption levels are to quadruple over the next 50 years, increases in environmental impacts are likely to be severe.