Non-State Actors In Sub-Saharan Africa 2007-2012 Outlook Mercyhurst Intelligence Estimate Non-State Actors In Sub-Saharan Africa 2007-2012 Outlook 12 November 2007 Team Non-State Actors: Mark Blair Daniel McNulty Brittany Monteparte Andreea Neagu Adrienne Sluga

Agenda Requirements Non-State Actor Key Findings Methodological Key Findings Guided Tour Of The Wiki

Requirement What role will non-state actors (NSAs) play and what impact will NSAs have in Sub-Saharan Africa over the next five years? What is the likely importance of NSAs vs. State Actors, Supra-State Actors and other relevant categories of actors in Sub-Saharan Africa? What are the roles of these actors in key countries, such as Niger? Are there geographic, cultural, economic or other patterns of activity along which the roles of these actors are either very different or strikingly similar? What analytical processes and methodologies were applied to the questions above and which proved to be effective or ineffective?

What Role Will Non-State Actors (NSAs) Play And What Impact Will NSAs Have In Sub-Saharan Africa Over The Next Five Years?

Key Findings NSAs, On Average, Likely Play A Limited Role In Sub-Saharan Africa NSA Roles Unlikely To Change Even Split Between Current Government Sanctioned And Extra-Government Role Potentials Government Sanctioned Role Potentials: (e.g. Unions, Lobbyists, Privatization) Extra-Government Role Potentials: (e.g. Violence, Bribery, etc.)

Key Findings Government Sanctioned Roles Likely To Moderately Increase Over The Next Five Years Extra-Government Roles Likely To See No Increase Within The Next Five Years

What Is The Likely Importance Of NSAs Versus State Actors And Supra-State Actors In Sub-Saharan Africa?

NSA Versus State Actors State Actors Likely To Have More Influence In Sub-Saharan Africa On Average, Government Control Likely To Stay The Same Within The Next Five Years

NSA Versus Supra-State Actors Two Supra-State Organizations Likely Have Significant Influence In Sub-Saharan Africa European Union United Nations It Is Unlikely That They Will Impact The Role Of NSAs Now And In The Next Five Years

What Are The Roles Of Non-State Actors (NSAs) In Key Countries, Such As Niger?

Key Countries Angola, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Niger, Nigeria, And South Africa Likely Key Countries To US Strategic Locations Military Importance Vast Natural Resources Counterterrorism Initiatives NSAs Likely Play Little To No Role In Key Countries Currently And Over The Next Five Years Current Role Role in 2012 Key Countries 1 GS All Countries

Are There Geographic, Cultural, Economic Or Other Patterns Of Activity Along Which The Roles Of These Actors Are Either Very Different Or Strikingly Similar?

Overall NSA Role Scores Government Sanctioned Role Potentials Extra-Government Role Potentials 5 2 1 3 4 No Role Multiple Significant Roles Multiple Significant Roles MALI 2-GS CAPE VERDE 2-GS ERITREA 2-EG MAURITANIA 1-EG NIGER 2-EG CHAD 4-EG DJIBOUTI 1-EG SUDAN 2-EG SENEGAL 2-GS BURKINA FASO 2-EG NIGERIA 1-EG THE GAMBIA 1-GS COTE D’IVOIRE 2-EG GHANA 2-GS ETHIOPIA 1-GS CENTRAL AFRICAN REP. 4-EG GUINEA-BISSAU 2-EG CAMEROON 1-EG TOGO 2-EG BENIN 2-GS GUINEA 3-EG LIBERIA 3-EG UGANDA 2-GS KENYA 2-GS/EG SOMALIA 5-EG GABON 2-GS SIERRA LEONE 2-EG EQUATORIAL GUINEA 2-EG DROC 3-EG RWANDA 1-GS/EG TANZANIA 2-GS BURUNDI 2-EG MALAWI 1-GS SAO TOME & PRINCIPE 1-GS SEYECHELLES 2-GS REP. OF CONGO 3-EG ANGOLA 1-EG COMOROS 1-GS ZAMBIA 1-GS MAURITIUS 4-GS ZIMBABWE 2-EG NAMIBIA 3-GS BOTSWANA 4-GS MADAGASCAR 2-GS MOZAMBIQUE 1-GS S. AFRICA 4-GS SWAZILAND 1-GS LESOTHO 2-GS

Patterns Of Activity: Geographic Southern And Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa: Region Likely Influenced By Government Sanctioned NSAs Government Sanctioned NSAs Likely To Increase Influence Over Next Five Years Southern And Eastern Region 5 2 1 3 4 Government Sanctioned Role Potentials Extra-Government Role Potentials Overall NSA Role Scores No Role Multiple Significant Roles

Patterns Of Activity: Geographic Central Region Central Sub-Saharan Africa: Region Likely Influenced By Extra-Government NSAs NSA Role Unlikely To Change Over Next Five Years 5 2 1 3 4 Government Sanctioned Role Potentials Extra-Government Role Potentials Overall NSA Role Scores No Role Multiple Significant Roles

Patterns Of Activity: Geographic Western Region Western Sub-Saharan Africa NSAs Likely Play A Wide Variety Of Roles No Clear Trends 5 2 1 3 4 Government Sanctioned Role Potentials Extra-Government Role Potentials Overall NSA Role Scores No Role Multiple Significant Roles

Patterns Of Activity: NSA Correlations It Is Likely That Certain Types Of NSAs Support Each Other Strong Correlation Between NGOs And Businesses (.86) Terrorist Groups More Represented In Countries With More State Control Strong correlation between the number of NGOs and businesses within the border of any single country.

Methodology

Key Findings It Is Likely That Multiple Methods Of Analysis Create High Confidence And Prove Highly Efficient The Fundamental Method – Role Potential Spectrum Government Sanctioned And Extra-Government Role Potentials Represents Likely Role Potentials of Lawful And Unlawful NSAs

NSA Role Potential Spectrum

Analysis Of Competing Hypothesis (ACH) Provided Confidence In A Specific Country’s Role Potential Score Looked At Other Factors Score Might Not Consider

NGOs In Sub-Saharan Africa Geospatial Analysis Confirmed Geographic Patterns In Four Separate Indices With Regards To NGOS, Businesses, And Terrorist Groups NGOs In Sub-Saharan Africa

Visualization It Is Likely That Visualization Of The Data Allows For Patterns To Be Easily Visible

Wiki Information Login Wikispaces: E-mail: www.wikispaces.com Username: billreynolds Password: reynolds E-mail: teamnonstateactors@gmail.com Password: burkinafaso11

Thank You Contact Information Mark Blair: markcblair@gmail.com Dan McNulty: dmcnul91@gmail.com Brittany Monteparte: bmonte80@mercyhurst.edu Andreea Neagu: aneagu16@mercyhurst.edu Adrienne Sluga: asluga69@mercyhurst.edu