Oklahoma State University

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Presentation transcript:

Oklahoma State University 27-Jun-18 Wheat, Canola, Corn, Soybeans & Sorghum Kim Anderson Oklahoma State University

U.S. Dollar Index: Weekly 25% Jun 15 Jun 16 19% Jun 14

KC Wheat Weekly Nearest

U.S. Dollar Index: Weekly 25% Jun 15 Jun 16 19% Jun 14

27-Jun-18 Corn

27-Jun-18 U.S. Corn Situation Production Consumption Ending Stocks U. S. Price Year Yield (Billion Bushels) 2010 12.4 13.1 1.13 $5.18 2011 12.5 0.99 $6.22 2012 10.8 11.1 0.82 $6.89 2013 13.8 13.5 1.23 $4.46 2014 14.2 13.7 1.73 $3.70 2015 13.6 1.72 $3.61 2016 15.1 14.6 2.36 $3.40 2017 14.1 2.22 $3.50 7-YR Avg. 13.2 1.43 $4.78

CBT Weekly Corn

27-Jun-18 Wheat

World Wheat Situation U.S. 2.21 2.00 2.25 2.14 2.03 2.06 2.31 $5.70 27-Jun-18 World Wheat Situation Production Consumption Ending Stocks Year U.S. 2.21 2.00 2.25 2.14 2.03 2.06 2.31 $5.70 $7.24 $7.77 $6.87 $5.99 $4.89 $3.80 (Billion Bushels) 2010 24.0 24.1 7.3 2011 25.6 7.2 2012 24.2 25.0 6.5 2013 26.3 25.9 7.1 2014 26.8 7.9 2015 27.0 26.2 8.8 2016 27.5 27.2 9.1 2017 26.7 7-YR Avg. 26.0 7.8

U.S. Wheat Production Production (mb) 1,048 716 1,672 1,257 2,310 HRW Winter All Wheat Marketing Year 2016 2017 Planted (ma) 26.6 23.3 36.1 32.4 50.2 46.0 Harvested (ma) 21.9 17.9 30.2 26.2 43.9 39.0 Yield (bu/ac) 49.5 40.0 55.3 48.0 52.6 47.1 Production (mb) 1,048 716 1,672 1,257 2,310 1,837 2017 Projected

27-Jun-18 U.S. Wheat Situation Production Consumption Ending Stocks U. S. Price Year (Billion Bushels) 2010 2.21 2.42 .862 $5.70 2011 2.00 2.23 .743 $7.24 2012 2.25 2.41 .718 $7.77 2013 2.14 2.43 .590 $6.87 2014 2.03 2.02 .752 $5.99 2015 2.06 1.95 .976 $4.89 2016 2.31 2.22 1.19 $3.80 2017 1.84 2.19 905 $4.30 7-YR Avg. 2.24 .833 $6.04

World Wheat Situation U.S. 2.21 2.00 2.25 2.14 2.03 2.06 2.31 1.91 27-Jun-18 World Wheat Situation Production Consumption Ending Stocks Year U.S. 2.21 2.00 2.25 2.14 2.03 2.06 2.31 1.91 $5.70 $7.24 $7.77 $6.87 $5.99 $4.89 $3.80 $4.30 (Billion Bushels) 2010 24.0 24.1 7.3 2011 25.6 7.2 2012 24.2 25.0 6.5 2013 26.3 25.9 7.1 2014 26.8 7.9 2015 27.0 26.2 8.8 2016 27.5 27.2 9.1 2017 26.7 7-YR Avg. 26.0 7.8

27-Jun-18 U.S. Wheat Situation Production Consumption Ending Stocks U. S. Price Year (Billion Bushels) 2010 2.21 2.42 .862 $5.70 2011 2.00 2.23 .743 $7.24 2012 2.25 2.41 .718 $7.77 2013 2.14 2.43 .590 $6.87 2014 2.03 2.02 .752 $5.99 2015 2.06 1.95 .976 $4.89 2016 2.31 2.22 1.19 $3.80 2017 1.91 2.19 905 $4.80 7-YR Avg. 2.24 .833 $6.04 $3.13 $4.30

Covington Cash Price: Daily $5.85

2017/18 Prices Commodity Futures Contract Basis Harvest Price Wheat $4.75 -$0.85 $3.90 Corn -$0.60 $3.30 Sorghum -.085 $3.05 Soybeans $10.10 -$0.80 $9.30 Cotton $0.74 -0.03 $0.71 Canola $514 ($Tns/42.1)-$5.60 $6.60