NYSE: MLR October 26, 2017 Kelsey McHugh Quintus Yang
Agenda Section 1 Introduction Section 2 Business Overview Section 3 Macroeconomic Overview Section 4 Financial Analysis Section 5 Valuation Section 6 Recommendation We are then going to dive into how the company has been doing over the past few years, as well as how we think the company should perform in the future We are going to use DCF analysis and comparable company analysis to get what we believe is the fair price for this company And then we are going to wrap up the presentation with our recommendation of Miller Industries
Section 1: Introduction
Share Market Prospects Key Information Portfolio Weight By Cost Name of Company: Miller Industries, Inc. NYSE: MLR Share Price1: $28.55 Shares Owned: 200 Total Return: 38.66% Sector: Consumer Goods Industry: Auto Parts Fiscal Year End: December 31st, 2017 Bought 400 @ $20.59 5/5/2016 Sold 200 @ $26.60 12/6/2016 Source: Stock Performance from Yahoo Finance, 10/24/2017 Source: Portfolio data from RCMP website, accessed 10/16/2017
Section 2: Business Overview
Business Overview Miller Industries, Inc. (NYSE:MLR) Key Statistics Founded in 1994 by William Miller in Ooltewah, TN World’s largest manufacturer of towing and recovery equipment Owns eight manufacturing facilities: US (5), France (2), UK (1) Market Cap1 $322.57m Trailing P/E 2 16.73x EPS3 $1.68 52 Week Range $21.55-$29.00 General Overview Top Institutional Investors Royce & Associates 12.53% Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Management 8.83% Dimensional Fund Advisors, LP 8.44% Blackrock, Inc. 7.63% Vanguard Group, Inc. 5.04% Franklin Resources, Inc. 3.32% Thomson Horstmann & Bryant, Inc. 3.29% Wells Fargo & Co. 3.27% Mutual of America Cap. 3.16% Wellington Management, LLP 2.63% Manufactures wreckers, car carriers, and trailers Products are sold throughout the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Europe, the Pacific Rim, the Middle East, South America, and Africa. 1,103 full time employees 3.98% of shares are owned by insiders 85.26% of shares owned by institutional investors Domestic Manufacturing Subsidiaries in Tennessee and Pennsylvania Foreign Manufacturing Subsidiaries in France and UK Sold 200 @ $26.60
Management Sold 200 @ $26.60
Product Line Wreckers Car Carriers Transport Trailers Used to recover and tow disabled vehicles and other equipment Contain rotating hydraulic booms and up to 75-ton lifting capabilities – light duty and heavy duty Light Duty (<16 tons) – Used to remove vehicles from accident scenes and illegally parked vehicles. Heavy Duty (>16 tons) – Used to remove overturned tractor trailers, buses, motor homes, and large vehicles. Specialized flatbed vehicles that allow operator to drive or winch a vehicle onto the bed for transport using a hydraulic tilt mechanism Transports new or disabled vehicles and other equipment Can also be used for transporting industrial equipment Particularly effective over longer distances Multi-vehicle transport trailers are specialized auto-transport vehicles with upper and lower decks and hydraulic ramps for loading vehicles. Used for moving multiple vehicles for auto auctions, car dealerships, leasing companies, and other similar applications Easily load and transport 6-7 vehicles at a time
Independent Distributor Supply Chain Process MLR Cut and bend sheet steel or aluminum into parts that are welded together to form the body of the wrecker, car carrier, or trailer Suppliers Supplies raw materials such as aluminum, sheet steel, petroleum, etc. *Supplies hydraulic cylinders, winches, valves, pumps, and chassis Third Party Supplier #1 Third Party Supplier #2 Distributors 80 independent distributors in the US Independent Distributor Governmental entities Prime Contractor *Body is either installed on a truck chassis by MLR or by distributor Consumers *After the frame is formed, components such as the hydraulic cylinders, winches, valves, and pumps, which are produced from third party vendors, are attached to the frame to form the completed wrecker or car carrier body. The completed body is either installed by us, or shipped by common carrier to a distributor where it is then installed on a truck chassis Light Duty Wreckers Heavy Duty Wreckers Trailers Professional wrecker operators Repossession towing services Local and national government entities Repair shop or salvage company owners Commercial vehicle operators Governmental entities. Equipment rental companies that offer delivery service Professional towing operators
Brand Portfolio The company is finalizing the consolidation and expansion of its Pennsylvania manufacturing operations to increase capacity and improve operating efficiencies. Ooltewah, TN and Greeneville, TN facilities are improving machinery and equipment and building construction/improvements
SWOT Analysis Strengths 85% of independent distributors sell MLR products on exclusive basis (strong relationship) Experienced management team 80 independent distributors with no single distributor accounting for more than 10% of MLR sales Low long-term debt Weaknesses Cyclical No contracts with independent distributors Customer spending dependent on availability of capital and access to credit Dependence on suppliers According to the earnings call, the construction in the Pennsylvania manufacturing facility has been completed and the construction on the two tennessee plants has been progressing well Financial Strength – strong cost management Strong relationships with distributors Cyclical – volatility of the raw materials and weather Dependence on suppliers for raw material and production inputs such as the chassis Cyclical – worried about the low volatility market currently Customers Credit – the ability of customers and towing operators to purchase MLR products is affected by the availability of capital and credit to them. Independent distributor customers rely on floor plan financing in connection with the purchase of our products, and the availability of that financing on acceptable terms has a direct effect on the volume of their purchases. Some floor plan financers have existed the market which has made it difficult for independent distributor customers to secure at those times. *If customers are unable to access capital or credit, it could materially and adversely affect our ability to sell our products, and as a result, could negatively affect our business and operating results Raw materials input – aluminum, steel, petroleum etc. volatile – if price increases, they raise prices of their products. Also, truck chassis are manufactured by third parties and there could be a problem if there is an unavailability of truck chassis Political and Economic Factors – ex: Brexit bc of international manufacturing operations and exchange rate risk Competitors could impede ability to attract or retain customers – highly competitive industry because the capital requirements for entry into the towing and recovery manufacturing industry have been relatively low. Sales competition are based on quality and innovation, reputation, technology, customer service, product availability, and price. Competition for sales also comes from the market for used towing and recovery equipment Proprietary technology – certain patents have expired and others will expire in the next few years so as a result we may not have a continuing competitive advantage through proprietary products and technology. Insurance – we are subject to various claims, including product warranty and product liability claims arising in the ordinary course of business. We maintain reserves and liability insurance coverage at levels based upon commercial norms and our historical claims experience. Inability for us to acquire or maintain insurance at commercially reasonable rates could have a material adverse effect upon our business. Opportunities Increases in capacity and efficiency from new plants Increasing market share from acquisitions and expanding facilities Threats More competitors due to cheap entry costs Regulation for the US and government programs Expiring patents on proprietary technology within the next year
Section 3: Macroeconomic Drivers
Macroeconomic Overview Key Economic Drivers Number of vehicle accidents Number of motor vehicle registrations Main activities: emergency road repair services Motor vehicle towing services Tow truck services Wrecking services for motor vehicles Naturally, the greater the amount of vehicle accidents the greater amount of towing is required Number of Accidents has decreased over the long term as cars and roads have become safer Number of accidents also decreased during recession when people drove less IBIS projects the number of accidents to decrease slightly then remain stagnat as cars become increasingly safer More new cars on the road, more accidents Naturally, amount decreased during recression but then picked up IBIS projects it to grow at 1.2% over next five years as population grows but consumers face higher oil prices and interest rates The more driving activity the greater the amount of accidents Financial crisis and recession had combined effect of causing people to choose other forms of transportation As economy picked up and more people went back to work, total vehicle miles increased IBIS expects amount to plateau as businesses look to technology/internet to reduce transportation costs Sold 200 @ $26.60
Industry Analysis Miller is the world leader in wrecker and car carrier manufacturing Supplier has low bargaining power because the cost of the raw material is dependent on commodity prices of aluminum, sheet steel, petroleum, and crude oil The towing industry has recently had to be cautious of the increasing popularity of buying used towing and recovery equipment – some operators are starting to solely purchase used vehicles Competition for sales in this industry is driven by product quality and innovation, price and service, as well as the market for used towing and recovery equipment The capital requirement to enter the industry is low Sold 200 @ $26.60
Section 4:Financial Analysis
Profitability Analysis Main activities: emergency road repair services Motor vehicle towing services Tow truck services Wrecking services for motor vehicles Sold 200 @ $26.60 Source: Capital IQ
Dupont Analysis Sold 200 @ $26.60 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Profit Margin 2.7% 2.3% 3.0% 3.3% Asset Turnover 1.69x 1.78x 1.88x 2.02x Equity Multiplier 1.28x 1.40x 1.56x 1.54x 1.61x ROE 5.8% 5.7% 8.8% 9.2% 10.8% Main activities: emergency road repair services Motor vehicle towing services Tow truck services Wrecking services for motor vehicles Sold 200 @ $26.60
Liquidity Analysis Sold 200 @ $26.60 Source: Capital IQ 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Liquidity Ratio Current Ratio 3.7x 2.9x 2.4x 2.3x 2.1x Quick Ratio 2.5x 2.0x 1.7x 1.6x 1.5x Solvency Ratio EBIT / Interest Exp. 17.6x 38.2x 44.2x 28.4x 27.5x EBITDA / Interest Exp. 23.0x 48.4x 51.5x 33.1x 31.7x (EBITDA-CAPEX) / Interest Exp. 18.9x 41.8x 20.2x 10.1x Main activities: emergency road repair services Motor vehicle towing services Tow truck services Wrecking services for motor vehicles Sold 200 @ $26.60 Source: Capital IQ
Greenblatt Ratio Analysis 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 EBIT 12.6 14.1 24.5 26.1 32.0 Net Working Capital 73.4 87.6 102.3 102.0 104.4 Net Fixed Asset 32.2 30.8 32.1 39.5 59.6 Tangible Asset 105.6 118.4 134.4 141.5 164.0 EBIT/Tangible Assets 11.9% 18.2% 18.5% 19.5% Shares Outstanding 11.3 11.4 Share Price $20.5 $21.7 $23.1 $23.8 $25.7 Market Cap 232.4 246.3 262.1 270.0 291.7 - Cash & Short Term Investments 33.3 29.6 32.8 31.1 + Total Debt 10.0 20.0 5.0 Total Enterprise Value 209.0 236.8 249.2 243.9 277.2 EBIT / EV 6.0% 9.8% 10.7% 11.5% Greenblatt Ratio 17.9% 28.0% 29.2% 31.0% Main activities: emergency road repair services Motor vehicle towing services Tow truck services Wrecking services for motor vehicles Sold 200 @ $26.60 Constantly improving Greenblatt ratio, with slow speed in recent years.
Technical Analysis Both 20-day and 200-day moving average lines are in an upward trend. Main activities: emergency road repair services Motor vehicle towing services Tow truck services Wrecking services for motor vehicles Sold 200 @ $26.60 Source: Bigcharts.com
Section 5: Valuation Analysis
DCF Analysis Revenue Assumption Sold 200 @ $26.60 Main activities: emergency road repair services Motor vehicle towing services Tow truck services Wrecking services for motor vehicles Sold 200 @ $26.60
Discount Rate Main activities: emergency road repair services Motor vehicle towing services Tow truck services Wrecking services for motor vehicles Sold 200 @ $26.60
Results Main activities: emergency road repair services Motor vehicle towing services Tow truck services Wrecking services for motor vehicles Sold 200 @ $26.60
Comparable Companies Wabash National Corp (WNC) Wabash National Corporation operates as a diversified industrial manufacturer and North America’s producer of semi-trailers and liquid transportation systems. Spartan Motors Inc (SPAR) Spartan Motors, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engineers, manufactures, and sells heavy-duty and custom vehicles in the United States, Canada, South America, and Asia. Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) Oshkosh Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets specialty vehicles and vehicle bodies worldwide REV Group Inc (REVG) REV Group, Inc. designs, manufactures, and distributes specialty vehicles in the United States, Canada, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and internationally. Main activities: emergency road repair services Motor vehicle towing services Tow truck services Wrecking services for motor vehicles Sold 200 @ $26.60
Comparable Companies Valuation Main activities: emergency road repair services Motor vehicle towing services Tow truck services Wrecking services for motor vehicles Sold 200 @ $26.60
HOLT Analysis CFROI: an estimate of the average real internal rate of return, earned by a firm on the portfolio of projects that constitute its operating assets. Main activities: emergency road repair services Motor vehicle towing services Tow truck services Wrecking services for motor vehicles Sold 200 @ $26.60 Source: Credit Suisse Holt Lens
Current Price: $28.10. 200 @ $26.60 Recommendations Upside: Steady growth in the past few years Experienced management team and improved operation performance Downside: Uncertain future growth plan Potential technology disruption Sluggish international growth Cyclical Industry Customer’s access to capital Main activities: emergency road repair services Motor vehicle towing services Tow truck services Wrecking services for motor vehicles DCF Price Range: $27.43- $31.15 Current Price: $28.10. 200 @ $26.60
THANKS! Any questions? Main activities: emergency road repair services Motor vehicle towing services Tow truck services Wrecking services for motor vehicles Any questions?