APPLICATIONS OF STATEWIDE TRAVEL FORECASTING MODEL Eric Songer URS Corporation Michael Doherty James Fennessy Fennessy Associates

Presentation Outline Turnpike State Model Applications Overview Validation Results Applications Heartland Forecast Grid Analysis Reverse Engineering Questions

Turnpike State Model GIS Database Built from scratch to ensure consistency among all components Simplified travel demand model structure with integrated land use model Two way GIS to TRANPLAN interface Landuse allocation interface capability Produces vehicle forecasts (AADT)

Model Network Built from GDT/ TeleAtlas network, FDOT RCI 2004 base network 500,000 arcs 124,500 links 2015 network Florida DOT work plan: 2,000 additional links Includes 11,800 FDOT RCI traffic count stations

Zone System Automatically generated from network Total of 29,395 zones 4,837 internal 37 external 23,086 for non-developable areas (e.g. lakes)

Model Validation Matrix-estimated trip lengths are very close to NHTS Florida distribution Emphasize that 97 % is less than 50 miles in length. 20K AADT, means around 600 are trips greater than 50 miles and less than 100 are greater than 300 miles. Visitors may make one long trip to destination, then numerous short trips. Model matches the 11,800 counts very closely, in part due to substantial network data cleaning effort

Summary and Conclusions FL TSM v.1.0 completed in 2006 Use of GIS database significantly facilitates model development and maintenance efforts Simplified initial travel demand modeling approach supports focus on critical data quality and maintenance issues Having reliable network data supports incremental enhancements of the travel demand models over time for toll forecasting analysis

Heartland Example Evaluated both East-West and North-South Corridors Automated alignment based on avoidance Smoothed to engineering curves Database updated Performed toll forecasting analysis Performed “reversed engineering” analysis

Heartland Alignments

Heartland Analysis East – West 2 alternatives Not moving forward at this time North – South Corridor identified for review North of SR 60

Heartland Project – Reverse Engineering Calculate Number of trips necessary to generate revenue necessary to bond toll facility Use Matrix Estimation to generate trip table necessary to satisfy the necessary volume Calculate additional needed socio-economic and employment per zone Use GIS to display population and employment change Completed for potential Turnpike project identification.

TSM Application – Grid Analysis 2035 Landuse projections 2015 Network GIS database available in 5 year increments Completed for potential Turnpike project identification.

Nine New Corridors We did a preliminary analysis of the 9 proposed new corridors.

What is Grid Analysis One Mile Grid Entire State Cut-line analysis Sum of Volume, Capacity Calculates V/C Lane by facility type Interesting tool for looking at increase in vehicle trips. Cut line analysis to help identify problem areas.

Grid Analysis Shows where supply is not meeting demand Pattern helps define corridors V/C Red > 1 Orange > 0.85 Green > 0.65 Grey > .5 Supply is capacity. Demand is volume. ADD LEGEND

Grid Analysis Results 2035 land use with 2015 network 2035 V/C > .85 2035 Results 2035 socio-econ assigned to the 2015 network.

Grid Analysis & Corridors

Orange – Duval AADT (millions) 35.2 Capacity (millions) 50.5 Volume / Capacity 0.70 New Capacity (Lane miles) Limited Access 9 Primary Arterials 27 Secondary Arterials 40 Collectors 70 Total 146

State V/C Results 2035 2035 land use with 2015 network 2035 Results 2035 socio-econ assigned to the 2015 network.

Summary and Conclusions TSM has complemented other tools available to Florida’s Turnpike Enterprise for toll forecasting analysis applications Future enhancements include: Toll mode choice model Truck volume forecasting Continuing TSM database maintenance and update

Questions?