New Jersey's Changing Climate With a Transportation Spin

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Presentation transcript:

New Jersey's Changing Climate With a Transportation Spin New Brunswick, April 16, 2007 John Munson/The Star-Ledger North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority Climate Working Group Dr. David A. Robinson Chair, Department of Geography & New Jersey State Climatologist Rutgers University September 28, 2010

Office of the NJ State Climatologist Our mission: Monitor Understand Inform http://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim

1. Traveling through NJ. or not. 2. What drives our weather & climate 1. Traveling through NJ....or not 2. What drives our weather & climate? 3. Is NJ's climate changing? If so, why? 4. What will the future bring? 5. Addressing climate change 6. Keeping a watchful eye

Weather & climate impact all aspects of life in NJ Transportation Agriculture/horticulture Ecology Water resources Public health & safety Energy Commerce

Yes, transportation to be sure

Indian Trails in the 1600s Mapping NJ, 2009

Present Road Network Mapping NJ, 2009

Rail lines: 1876 Mapping NJ, 2009

1. Traveling through NJ. or not. 2. What drives our weather & climate 1. Traveling through NJ....or not 2. What drives our weather & climate? 3. Is NJ's climate changing? If so, why? 4. What will the future bring? 5. Addressing climate change 6. Keeping a watchful eye

Weather - Climate “Players”

A mid-latitude squeeze play

Diversity at home Altitude Latitude Surface Conditions Land-Water Contrasts Ocean Currents

1. Traveling through NJ. or not. 2. What drives our weather & climate 1. Traveling through NJ....or not 2. What drives our weather & climate? 3. Is NJ's climate changing? If so, why? 4. What will the future bring? 5. Addressing climate change 6. Keeping a watchful eye

Climate past 18

Past century of NJ climate variability

Climate Observations Past 12 months of NJ's climate

Rank Year Summer Temp 1 2010 76.1 2 2005 75.6 3 1949 74.6 4 1999 74.5 5 2002 74.4 6 2006 74.3 7 1955 74.1 8 2008 74.0 9 1900 73.9 10 1943 73.8 1973

Rank Year Summer Precip 1 1966 5.67 2 1957 5.73 3 1929 7.10 4 1949 7.65 5 1964 7.89 6 1913 8.09 7 1923 8.12 8 2010 8.27 9 1963 8.28 10 1944 8.32

Coupled Climate Model Schematic

Natural and anthropogenic forcings and 20th century temperatures Meehl, G.A., et al., 2004

1. Traveling through NJ. or not. 2. What drives our weather & climate 1. Traveling through NJ....or not 2. What drives our weather & climate? 3. Is NJ's climate changing? If so, why? 4. What will the future bring? 5. Addressing climate change 6. Keeping a watchful eye

New Jersey's future climate Rising temperatures Steady or increasing precipitation Increasing variability and extremes - storms, flood, drought, heat……. Rising sea level

More warming in the pipeline Future emissions Additional “zero-emission” warming (aka “commitment”) Warming to date 28

Changes in heat index The heat index combines the effects of temperature and humidity to estimate human comfort. Results are from simulations with three global climate models with two emissions scenarios, representing the low and high ends of the IPCC range. Under the high emissions scenario, Tri-State summers at the end of the 21st century are projected to be similar to those in Savannah, Georgia today.

Effects of climate change on water resources: more floods and droughts? Spruce Run Reservoir, March 2002 Delaware River, Sept. 2004 Easton-Phillipsburg Bridge June 2006 30

A recent view of global mean sea level changes Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD Grinsted, Moore and Jevrejeva, Climate Dynamics, 2009 31 31

32 32

Shipping through the Arctic

Elevations below 10 feet in gray

1. Traveling through NJ. or not. 2. What drives our weather & climate 1. Traveling through NJ....or not 2. What drives our weather & climate? 3. Is NJ's climate changing? If so, why? 4. What will the future bring? 5. Addressing climate change 6. Keeping a watchful eye

Managing climate change Knowledge: Develop a better understanding of the details of future climate change. Mitigation: Reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Adaptation: Increase the resilience of society to climate change. Leadership: Raise public awareness of the challenges posed by climate change and the need to mitigate and adapt.

1. Traveling through NJ. or not. 2. What drives our weather & climate 1. Traveling through NJ....or not 2. What drives our weather & climate? 3. Is NJ's climate changing? If so, why? 4. What will the future bring? 5. Addressing climate change 6. Keeping a watchful eye

NJ Weather & Climate Network http://climate.rutgers.edu/njwxnet

Dry north, Central icing, Southern rain: Sunday evening 12/2/07 Red numbers 2: rain 4: snow 6: freezing rain 7: drizzle

Custom Quick Look Information

precipitation observations Augmenting automated precipitation observations Daily observations by trained volunteers of all ages

Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) http://cocorahs.org

Thanks drobins@rci.rutgers.edu http://climate.rutgers.edu 47