VegDRI History, Current Status, and Related Activities Jesslyn F. Brown, SAIC, contractor for USGS, Center for EROS Brian Wardlow, National Drought Mitigation Center

Topics History and objectives of VegDRI Project timeline Methodology and results Evaluation and outreach Related research activities

VegDRI Project Objective To integrate remote sensing data into the USDM Improve near real-time drought monitoring by integrating information from remote sensing sources with climate and biophysical data Improve the spatial detail of the USDM by providing sub-county detail Fill in the gaps especially in the West where there are no weather stations

VegDRI Timeline USGS USGS USDA-RMA NASA 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Proposal to USGS Geographic Prospectus USGS USGS Proposal to USDA Risk Management Agency USDA-RMA Proposal to NASA Decisions CAN NASA Development of prototype VegDRI System Build database using MODIS inputs Transition to MODIS Calculation of prototype spatial products Test operational VegDRI System Build operational VegDRI System Build database using AVHRR inputs Evaluation of VegDRI products Link to NIDIS Web mapping viewer Integration into USDM Quasi-operational product delivery Test MODIS SWIR-based products Put into national operation 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

VegDRI Collaboration

Principal Drought Monitor Inputs CPC Daily Soil Model USGS Streamflow Palmer Drought Index 30-day Precip. USDA Soil Ratings Satellite Veg Health

USDM Requirements for Remote Sensing Input Data Consistent Reliable In anomalous vegetation signal, drought effects separated from non-drought Seasonality taken into account Familiar drought-like categorization Timely delivery (to USDM authors by Tuesday) Current information (latency not more than 48 hours—ideally within 24 hours)

18+ Years of Satellite Vegetation Data for National Monitoring of Land Surface Condition Noise reduction by smoothing AVHRR from 1989-present MODIS from 2000-present Drought Monitoring Key measures of growing season performance Higher Order Vegetation Index Products and Models The value of the satellite database that has been consistently processed and is provided by the USGS EROS Data Center as a standard product is what we want to show here. We also calculate a number of other measures from the NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index—aka “Greenness”). Including Percent of Average Seasonal Greenness (next slide) that is a relative indicator of actual vegetation performance related to the mean performance for each 1–km pixel. Rangeland Performance

TIN Time Integrated NDVI

Vegetation Drought Response Index Higher Order Vegetation Index Products for Monitoring Phenology, Drought, and Range Performance Start of Season Percent Average Seasonal Greenness Vegetation Drought Response Index

Percent of Average Seasonal Greenness (PASG) X SG(89-05)= 21 Seasonal Greenness Percent of Average SG(06)= 64.7% 16 24 22 6/28/04 6/28/05 6/28/06

VegDRI Models: Current Drought Status Model Input Layers Start of Season Anomaly PASG VegDRI (Vegetation Drought Response Index) Regression Tree Modeling Standardized Precipitation Index Available Water Capacity Land Cover Ecoregions Irrigated Ag.

Results for Seven-state Prototype Area Regression tree model run on ~780 weather stations, 7 parameters Produced rule-based models for 3 phases during the growing season Dependent variable = PDSI Phase Start Day End Day SPI R2 Spring 113 168 52-week 0.757 Summer 169 238 0.846 Fall 239 280 44-week

Data Mining and Information Discovery Subsystem Input Data Data Mining and Information Discovery Subsystem Modeling and Dissemination Subsystems MODIS Vegetation Indices CART analysis of input variables Iterate with sample analyses Derive variable coefficients and weights Search archives Data retrieval Mosaic Reprojection Derive metrics AVHRR NDVI Data rescaling Image Extract samples Produce Text File Database of Model Variables Model Parameters And Rules Reproject 1992 National Land Cover Database (NLCD) Calc dominant LC Subset Image Model Input Data Model Results Extract samples Produce Text File Reports State Soil Geographic (STATSGO) Database Extract Attributes Calculate Variables Maps Omernik EPA Level III Ecoregions Rasterize Reproject Apply Model to Calculate Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI) Subset Image Extract samples Produce Text File % of Land in Farms in Irrigation (USDA) Calculate variables Polygon encoding U.S. Drought Monitor DSS Standardized Precipitation Index (bi-weekly) Data retrieval Subset Compile database Reproject Segment seasons Rescale data Palmer Drought Severity Index (bi-weekly) Interpolate surface Image Extract samples Produce Text File Dynamic Inputs New input datasets Static Inputs Model Formulation and Implementation; Recurring Operations Dependent variable Processes to be automated or improved

Prototype VegDRI Products for Historical Years and 2002 Forward 1989 1993 1997 2002 2004

Schedule for expansion Summer 2006 Spring 2007 Fall 2007 Spring 2008

2006 VegDRI retrospective test

Information Delivery to USDM and Rangeland Stakeholders USGS interactive map viewer Quick maps Interpretive text

USGS Interactive Web Map Viewer http://gisdata. usgs