Launch Vehicle Economics: Worked Examples By Chris Y. Taylor 2006 AIAA Houston ATS NASA/JSC May 19, 2006

c = R Γ c = specific cost ($/lb.) = Launch Cost/Payload Mass   R = payload mass ratio = Structure Mass/Payload Mass Γ = structure cost ($/lb.) = Launch Cost/Structure Mass

+ Γrisk + Γpropellant + (Γnr/a)) c = R ( Γvehicle + Γops + Γrisk + Γpropellant + (Γnr/a)) Γvehicle = Cost of Vehicle Hardware   Fops = Cost of Operations Γrisk = Cost of Risk Γpropellant = Cost of Propellant (Γnr/a) = Amortized Non-recurring Costs

Launch Costs

Amortized Non-Recurring Cost (Γ nr/a) Γnr = non-recurring costs $20,000 < Γnr < $120,000 (assuming R&D only)   a = amortization factor  flight rate = 27 (10 yr. payback, 4 yr. r&d , flight rate of 27/6 yr, 0% interest & inflation) $750 < (Γ nr/a)< $4500

Reduce Cost through Lean Operation and Good Management

Reduce Cost through Evolutionary Design

Selected Bibliography Griffen M.D. and Claybaugh, W.R., “The Cost of Access to Space”, JBIS vol. 47 pp 119-122, 1994   Whitehead, J.C., “Launch Vehicle Cost: A Low Tech Analysis”, AIAA paper 2000-3140, 2000 Kalitventzeff, B., “Various Optimization Methods for Preliminary Cost and Mass Distribution Assessment for Multistage Rocket Vehicles”, JBIS vol. 20, pp 177-183, 1965 Carton, D.S., and Kalitventzeff, B., “Effect of Engine, Tank, and Propellant Specific Cost on Single-Stage Recoverable Booster Economics,” JBIS vol. 20, pp 183-196, 1965 Wertz, J.R., “Economic Model of Reusable vs. Expendable Launch Vehicles”, presented IAF Congress, Reo de Janeiro, Brazil, Oct. 2-6, 2000 Worden, S., “Perspectives on Space Future”, presented 2003 NIAC meeting, Nov. 6, 2003, http://www.niac.usra.edu/files /library/fellows_mtg/nov03_mtg/pdf/Worden_Simon.pdf Griffen, M.D., “Heavy Lift Launch for Lunar Exploration”, presented U. of Wisconsin, Nov. 9, 2001 Chang, I.S., “Overview of World Space Launches”, Journal of Prop. and Power, Vol. 16, No. 5, pp 853-866, Sept.-Oct. 2000 Claybaugh, W. R., Economics of Space Transportation AIAA Short Course, 2002 World Space Congress, Houston TX

Reduce Cost through Evolutionary Design Griffen, M.D., “Heavy Lift Launch for Lunar Exploration”, presented U. of Wisconsin, April 11, 1999

Amortized Non-Recurring Cost (Γ nr/a) Γnr = non-recurring costs $20,000 < Γnr < $120,000 (assuming R&D only)   a = amortization factor  flight rate = 27 (10 yr. payback, 4 yr. r&d , flight rate of 27/6 yr, 0% interest & inflation) $750 < (Γ nr/a)< $4500

Development Cost Breakdown (Γ nr/a) = (Σ (Γnr,i)(mi/mstructure))/a Total development cost is the sum of many smaller development costs. Lesson: Develop as little of the vehicle as possible.

Using Identical Stages for Reduced Development Cost Trimese Bimese Image from: THE BIMESE CONCEPT: A STUDY OF MISSION AND ECONOMIC OPTIONS by Dr. John R. Olds and Jeffrey Tooley, 1999

RocketCost.xls (beta) http://www.jupiter-measurement.com/research/rocketcost.xls

Bimese vs. Normal 2 Stage INPUTS: 10,000 lb. payload, Isp = 450s, Stage Propellant Fraction = 0.875, ΔV = 30,000 ft/s, reusable (50 flights), $2,000/lb. vehicle costs, Baseline Design R&D = $40,000/lb., Bimese Design R&D = $50,000/lb., a = 27

Bimese vs. Normal 2 Stage INPUTS: 10,000 lb. payload, Isp = 450s, Baseline Prop. Fraction = 0.875, Tank Prop. Fraction = 0.95, Tanked Bimese Prop. Fraction = 0.85 ΔV = 30,000 ft/s, reusable (50 flights), $2,000/lb. vehicle costs, Baseline Design R&D = $40,000/lb., Bimese Design R&D = $50,000/lb., E.T. design & hardware costs = 1/3 normal, a = 27

Quadmese + ET? Hans Multhopp’s Shuttle Design, Unknown Citation, Oct., 1969.

Can you have an N-mese? Flock Space Launch Architecture By Allan Goff, Novatia Labs, Folsom CA

Conclusions A “Back of The Napkin” Cost Model for conceptual launch vehicle design is useful and fun! Try this at home. Download my RocketCost spreadsheet beta. Let me know if you find any errors. www.jupiter-measurement.com/research/rocketcost.xls Amortized development cost is really important for economical space access. Don’t spend $$$ to develop more than you have to. “An engineer is someone who can do for one dollar what any idiot can do with two.”

Selected Bibliography Griffen M.D. and Claybaugh, W.R., “The Cost of Access to Space”, JBIS vol. 47 pp 119-122, 1994   Whitehead, J.C., “Launch Vehicle Cost: A Low Tech Analysis”, AIAA paper 2000-3140, 2000 Kalitventzeff, B., “Various Optimization Methods for Preliminary Cost and Mass Distribution Assessment for Multistage Rocket Vehicles”, JBIS vol. 20, pp 177-183, 1965 Carton, D.S., and Kalitventzeff, B., “Effect of Engine, Tank, and Propellant Specific Cost on Single-Stage Recoverable Booster Economics,” JBIS vol. 20, pp 183-196, 1965 Wertz, J.R., “Economic Model of Reusable vs. Expendable Launch Vehicles”, presented IAF Congress, Reo de Janeiro, Brazil, Oct. 2-6, 2000 Worden, S., “Perspectives on Space Future”, presented 2003 NIAC meeting, Nov. 6, 2003, http://www.niac.usra.edu/files /library/fellows_mtg/nov03_mtg/pdf/Worden_Simon.pdf Griffen, M.D., “Heavy Lift Launch for Lunar Exploration”, presented U. of Wisconsin, Nov. 9, 2001, http://fti.neep.wisc.edu/neep533/FALL2001/lecture29.pdf Chang, I.S., “Overview of World Space Launches”, Journal of Prop. and Power, Vol. 16, No. 5, pp 853-866, Sept.-Oct. 2000 Claybaugh, W. R., Economics of Space Transportation AIAA Short Course, 2002 World Space Congress, Houston TX