Development of the pathways to achieve SE4ALL 2030 objectives P-4402-07 Jay Gregg (jsgr@dtu.dk), Olexandr Balyk (obal@dtu.dk), Ola Solér (olsol@dtu.dk), Cristian Cabrera (chcp@dtu.dk), Simone La Greca (simgr@dtu.dk), *Tom Kober (kober@ecn.nl) Technical University of Denmark Management Engineering Systems Analysis *Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands Introduction & Method Conclusions The UN Sustainable Energy for All Initiative (SE4ALL) objectives for doubling energy efficiency and renewable energy by 2030 are analyzed with the TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (ETSAP-TIAM) with four scenarios: Reference Includes current regional carbon prices and energy intensity targets; energy intensity based on historic averages Energy Efficiency (EE) Global reduction rate in global primary energy intensity reaches 2.6% reduction per year by 2030 Renewable Energy (RE) Region-specific targets based on International Renewable Energy Agency Global Renewable Roadmap (IRENA REMap2030) Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE+RE) Combination of EE and RE Traditional biomass is estimated from the GCAM 3.2 integrated assessment model. For the alternative scenarios (non-reference), traditional biomass consumption is replaced by modern energy sources, in accordance with the SE4LL energy access objective. ETSAP-TIAM simulates improvements in conventional technologies’ efficiencies, phasing out of energy intensive technologies at an accelerated pace (replaced with more advanced counterparts), and more investment in building envelope efficiency measures. The pathways below suggest that: The SE4ALL RE and EE targets should not be too expensive to achieve Large improvement exist in xxxx in the building sectors; highlighting the importance of policies for building codes, particularly in rapidly developing economies There is a synergy between EE and RE, EE makes RE cheaper Even achieving the RE and EE targets, additional climate policies will be necessary to achieve a path to a 2-degree target (RCP2.6 2030: 31.4 Gt) Reference Total System Cost 2010-2030: 100 2030 CO2 Emissions: 40.5 Gt EE Total System Cost 2010-2030: 100.5 2030 CO2 Emissions: 36.3 Gt RE Total System Cost 2010-2030: 101.5 2030 CO2 Emissions: 39.6 Gt EE & RE Total System Cost 2010-2030: 100.7 2030 CO2 Emissions: 35.5 Gt