Is There a Teacher Shortage? A Policy Analytic View September 21, 2017 Joshua Cowen, Ph.D. Katharine O. Strunk, Ph.D. Education Policy Innovation Collaborative (EPIC) Michigan State University

Introduction First a word on sources Spoiler alert: teacher shortage is a complicated topic Unlike other research areas, evidence on the question remains thin, draws from many other policy areas As a result, today we’re going to lean heavily on the synthesized work of others Especially Dee and Goldhaber (2017) who draw on a number of different studies—some focused on shortage per se but most on other inter-related topics

First Things First: Is There a Teacher Shortage?

First Things First: Is There a Teacher Shortage? News Coverage Says YES!

Challenges to Understanding Teacher Shortages Anecdotal evidence can appear overwhelming Many state, district and local leaders report staffing difficulties Educator Preparation Institutions report declining enrollments Shortage can be linked to, but is a separate issue from, other questions such as entry into teacher prep programs Confounding trends: e.g. policy change, enrollment/population declines; economic changes especially for young adults

Challenges to Understanding Teacher Shortages Labor markets vary between and within states Context: Economic conditions Demographics Geography Legal/regulatory Certification requirements School finance structure CBAs Non-TPS competition

What Do We Even Mean by “Shortage”? Why not just ask principals/supers/boards if they have the staff they need? Acute v. chronic? Or: short v. long run Federal designations based on Unfilled positions Positions filled by temporary or emergency certificates Positions filled by out-of-subject teachers

Measuring/Defining Shortage Is Important How we measure and define shortage is the first step to identifying causes Definitions, measures and causes both necessary to inform solutions because these tell us: Where? How much? Why?

Measuring/Defining Shortage Is Important In policymaking, measures often require benchmarks to carry meaning. Here: Comparing “my state” to other states Implications/solutions may be different if state trend is part of a larger, national problem Comparing today to yesterday Related to acute v. chronic Comparing today to tomorrow Projecting

What Does the Evidence Say? Some indicators suggest shortage California: upticks in permits/waivers (Darling-Hammond et al. 2017) New York: tripling of teachers in non-certified subject (Dee and Goldhaber 2017) Many others suggest robust supply of teachers: Per-pupil ratio continues to fall Number of education majors rose over the last three decades, only falling recently Graduates still far outnumber hires (Cowan et al 2016)

What Does the Evidence Say? Students far more likely to be taught by irregularly certified teacher if they are: African American or Hispanic Economically disadvantaged Live in an urban or rural locale instead of a suburb Administrators report far greater difficulty hiring for STEM and Special education positions (Dee and Goldhaber 2017; Cowan et al 2016, Ingersoll 2003; Will 2016)

What Does the Evidence Say?

What Does the Evidence Say? In sum: There is little to indicate that there is the or even a great teacher shortage In fact the market appears quite strong by some measures There are however longstanding problems filling needs for some children, and some teacher subjects In other words: the problem is not necessarily that we don’t have enough teachers, it’s that the teachers we do have are not distributed equally across schools, locations or subjects

Related Issues Shortage can be caused by problems of both recruitment and retention What is the role of teacher pay? Mixed evidence on the role of teacher pay (e.g. Clotfelter et al 2010; Hanushek et al. 2007; Cowan and Goldhaber 2015): Working conditions/student demographics may matter more when it comes to recruitment or retention It appears to take less to pay a teacher to stay than it would to induce a new teacher from another school to come in

Related Issues Shortage can be caused by problems of both recruitment and retention What else do we know about where teachers choose to teach? Relative to similarly trained professions, teaching is a highly local market: teachers tend to work near where they grew up or student-taught (Boyd, et al. 2004; Reininger 2012; Goldhaber et al. 2014) But is this because of teacher or administrator preferences or both? Also, teachers are fairly immobile. Some transfers out of high needs schools especially within-districts but local agreements often discourage cross-district moves

Related Issues Up until now we’ve only talked about the number of teachers What about the number of effective teachers? Would policies increasing supply by recruiting or retaining less effective teachers benefit kids? Especially when we know shortages are concentrated among high minority and poor communities? Certification alone does not appear to tell us much (Boyd et al 2007; Goldhaber 2010) and neither does years of education per se, but training in subject, especially in math, does appear to matter (Clotfelter, et al. 2010; Dee and Cohodes 2008) What is the role of teacher experience?

Potential Solutions Targeted financial incentives where they are needed Across the board increases in teacher pay are prohibitively expensive and there is little evidence that higher salaries overall increase effectiveness New resources for hard-to-staff schools and, within schools, shortage subject areas (e.g. STEM and special ed) may be both feasible and effective. Frontload salary schedules, especially for high-need teachers (e.g., Grissom & Strunk, 2012)

Potential Solutions Start early Build a strong bench Late hiring (concentrated in hard-to-staff areas) reduce position-teacher match re: both retention and achievement Identifying positions of need early, making future projections Build a strong bench Evidence suggests student teaching can be an effective way to develop future supply of teachers, with internship location even more important to placement than EPI or hometown (Goldhaber et al 2016) Make field placements available in areas of anticipated future need

Potential Solutions Role of state regs/laws Many permanent certification requirements may dissuade early or mid-career applicants As we’ve already seen, certification and ed major do little on average to predict teacher effectiveness (except perhaps in math) Changing economic realities: young people don’t often make lifelong career decisions at age 19 and ed majors are not “portable” More flexible permanent alternative certification especially in STEM or special education may help State reciprocity for out-of-state licensures Centralized information systems for career prospects, the field of teaching

Summary The national picture still favorable re: teacher supply Overall 100-200,000 more graduates from Educator Preparation Institutions than positions available nationally Problem is where they want to teach, and what STEM and special education shortages more widespread Minority, poor, urban and rural students face more shortage These are the same students facing other historical disadvantage on the basis of race, income, etc…

Summary These patterns imply problems rooted in causes that go beyond the teaching profession per se, and even beyond education itself This suggests solutions may begin in districts and state agencies but cannot be limited to them Role of legislatures and executive branch in governing policy beyond education Role of federal government