How do voters decide? C. Daniel Myers Assistant Professor Department of Political Science University of Minnesota

Party Identification

Social Identity: An Example

Social Identity: An Example

Examples of social identities

Partisan Social Identity

Partisan Social Identity Social identification Provides self-concept and self-worth Defines “good” and “bad” beliefs and behaviors Structures relationships with others Protecting group’s status = protecting self From threatening information From threatening “out-groups”

How Many Partisans?

How Many Partisans?

How Many Partisans? Approximately 90% of Americans identify or lean towards a party More “independent leaners” than before… … but “independent leaners” vote in the same was as partisans True Independents rare, mostly low knowledge/interest Partisan identification the biggest factor in voting behavior Note that 80-90

Partisanship and Voting (Pew June 2016 Poll)

Motivated Information Processing

Quick Exercise Read the article about the candidate who you support or lean towards List all the thoughts that went through your mind while reading the article

Motivated Information Processing What happens when partisans encounter new information? Info good for my party? Great! Info bad for my party? Counter-argue! Counter-arguing: Searching your memory for reasons to discount information Two common counter-arguing strategies “Lesser-of-two evils” “Issue reprioritization” Again, look at listed thoughts, do these strategies look like any of your thoughts? Give examples.

Partisanship and Voting (Pew June 2016 Poll)

Disagreement about Basic Facts

How to reason a little better

Two Kinds of Motivations Directional – Motivation to reach/avoid a particular conclusion Accuracy motivations – Motivation to create an accurate picture of the world

What Can Increase Accuracy Motivation? Paying people! Norms of good citizenship Issues that are personally important Partisan ambivalence

Partisan Ambivalence Having both positive and negative thoughts about your party Causes Poor performance in office, particularly economic Disagreement on key, personal issue Other behaviors that violate your image of a “good political party” Opens door for more accuracy-motivated thinking

Conclusion

Conclusion Social Identification with a party is the primary driver of voting behavior Identification drives motivated information processing, which reinforces partisan voting patterns Accuracy motivations can sometimes lead voters to process information in a way that produces voting for the other side

Questions? cdmyers@umn.edu