Philine Warnke and Gaston Heimeriks IPTS Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006 Technology Foresight as Innovation Policy Instrument – Learning from Science and Technology Studies Philine Warnke and Gaston Heimeriks IPTS

Introduction Outline of the argument Learning from Science and Technology Studies Introduction Outline of the argument Rationale: Explore STS as interpretative framework for Technology Foresight and using these insights to enrich concept and practice Four modes of Foresight as RTI policy support Science and technology Studies (STS): the social shaping of technologies Implications of STS for Foresight Conclusions and Discussion

Foresight … … A process of systematic collective reasoning Learning from Science and Technology Studies Foresight … … A process of systematic collective reasoning about the future not predicting a pre-determined future but exploring how the future might evolve in different ways depending on the actions of various players and decisions taken ‘today’. Thinking the Future involving the relevant stakeholders. Results are disseminated and discussed among a wide audience. FORESIGHT Open Participatory Action oriented Debating the Future Shaping the Future Not only analysing or contemplating future developments but supporting actors in actively shaping the future

Technology Foresight? Learning from Science and Technology Studies Foresight does not always focus on Technology issues and if it does usually adopts a holistic approach, but Research, Technology and Innovation policy makers are often the clients so the recommendations do address activities directed at technological development Almost any future relevant issue will involve technological elements adequate concept of technological development crucial for majority of Foresight approaches

Foresight supporting Innovation Policy Learning from Science and Technology Studies Foresight supporting Innovation Policy Four Dimensions Systemic innovation policy instrument enhancing self-organisation through learning and experimenting, facilitating management of interfaces, fostering new alignments of elements, providing "distributed intelligence" Orienting innovation towards societal needs as a forum for exchange between demand and supply perspective,and societal value articulation orient innovation towards societal needs and future users’ demands in an early phase of the innovation trajectory Agenda setting process evoke certain expectations towards a technology and thereby motivate actors to mobilise resources and invest in certain innovations Providing anticipatory intelligence understanding of dynamics of change based on a diversity of knowledge sources as a base for future oriented decision making

Science and Technology Studies Learning from Science and Technology Studies Science and Technology Studies A brief overview Opening the Black Box of technology: Technologies are not a given, but man-made constructs. They are the products of cultural evolution, with different definitions, perceptions, and are continuously evolving in a social context. The socio-economic patterns embedded in both the content of technologies and the processes of innovation are exposed and analysed in SST studies showing that technology does not develop according to an inner technical logic but is instead a social product, patterned by the conditions of its creation and use. Focus of analysis: Co-evolution of technology and society

The Co-evolution of Society and Technology Learning from Science and Technology Studies The Co-evolution of Society and Technology Theoretical Perspectives Socio-technical regimes variation and selection shaped interplay between various levels of socio-economic framework Interpretative flexibility Negotiation among social groups with their different interests on interpretation of new artefacts leads to continuous process of opening and closing of socio-technical options (Bijker et al) Heterogeneous engineers Actors pursuing alignment of material and social elements within heterogenous networks (Law & Callon) Socio-technical Stabilisation Emergence of dominant designs and "lock-in”: network effects,role of embedding in infrastucture QWERTY keyboard

The Co-evolution of Society and Technology Learning from Science and Technology Studies The Co-evolution of Society and Technology Insights I Relevance of downstream phase of innovation embedding into socio-cultural context as highly relevant part of innovation trajectory co-construction of users and technology; Variation constraints at the same time design process structured through embedding into existing framework (e.g. socio-technical regimes: firm routines, best practice rules etc. and cultural settings: images of use(rs), perception

The Co-evolution of Society and Technology Learning from Science and Technology Studies The Co-evolution of Society and Technology Insights II Role of visions and expectations Major impact of shared expectations among specific groups of actors and wider society on technological trajectories local/universal translations The same technology might be incorporated into different socio-technical patterns in different socio-cultural contexts socio-technical patterns that have been developed on a local level need to be translated before they can feed into universal patterns forming the structuring regime for again other innovation activities.

Implications for Foresight Learning from Science and Technology Studies Implications for Foresight Learning from STS Foresight as process moderator, yes but mapping of relevant actors not at all trivial (user side!) involvement of social scientists needed Foresight as expectation management, yes but linear/narrow visions can be barriers need for richness on societal side more emphasis on creative elements? Understanding of dynamics of change, yes but need to look at embedding into societal context to describe ‘real world’ technology trajectories relevant for policy Localisation through Foresight relevance of local Foresight even for ‘universal’ technology

Need to involve social scientists Learning from Science and Technology Studies Conclusions Foresight from an STS perspective STS insights do confirm the relevance of Foresight as systemic innovation policy instrument the possibility for policy to impact on innovation trajectories through Foresight activities But also highlight critical issues need for more diligent consideration of societal changes and in particular seriously consider appropriation of technologies mapping of actor arena critical need to consider type of vision needed for purpose Need to involve social scientists

Outlook Some open issues for further thought ... Learning from Science and Technology Studies Outlook Some open issues for further thought ... How to feed a holistic socio-technical analysis into a fragmented policy arena? should we rather say how to fund RTI than what to fund? How can we go from fostering innovation capability to orienting innovation towards desired onjectives (sustainability, quality of life ...)? should Foresight link up to other instruments such as strategic niche management et al

Thank you ... for your attention! Learning from Science and Technology Studies Thank you ... for your attention!