Four-step approach (1) Assess vulnerability During the ToT we asked the participants to work in groups and put together all relevant information for their specific topic (water, climate, agriculture, governance, society and economy) and present it to their colleagues

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The four-step approach: the basic adaptation planning process (1) The systematic process deals with all questions relevant for planning adaptation. Going one step at a time avoids mental blocks due to the over-complex challenge. The four-step approach of the project is crucial to orient strategic planning. This is the step before operational planning.

The four-step approach: the basic adaptation planning process (2) Four steps: Assess vulnerability Identify adaptation options Select adaptation measures Develop an M&E framework

Rationale Objective Importance First step of planning adaptation Analyse the system of interest’s vulnerability and define areas with need for action Importance Establishes the basis for developing solutions: an agreed identification of problems

Terminology System of interest (human, natural, economic) Sensitivity Adaptive capacity Exposure/Climate signal Impacts Biophysical Socio-economic Vulnerability/need for action Exposure Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability Potential Impact Sensitivity » See training manual glossary for definitions

Exercise (1a) Context Update South State Water Program (State Water Authority (SWA), Ministry of Water (MoW), Ministry of Agricultutre (MoA)) Development funding will be allocated for priority activities to improve water management under climate change SWA has established an advisory group to support the integration of climate change adaptation in the revision of the South State Water Programme  your working group Detailed analysis to link exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity in order to determine need for action.

Exercise (1b) SWA has decided to focus the revision on two key areas, that correspond with the National Development Plan (NDP) Increased and diversified agricultural production and rural incomes Safe drinking water supply and sanitation Exhibits Introduction to South State Two selected intervention areas of SWP Increased and diversified agricultural production and rural incomes The revision of the State Water Program aims at maintaining a balance between future water supply and demand for three important agricultural systems: (a) the rice / wheat rotation in the central plain, (b) upland plantation agriculture, and (c) the delta rice growing Safe drinking water supply and sanitation Different sources of drinking water. The national goal of ensuring safe drinking water supply and sanitation for 80 % of population by 2020 is relevant to all the main ‘systems of interest’ are given

Exercise (2a) Your task, Part 1 Gather information necessary for Part 2 Take stock of recent situation in the system of interest Use Matrix 3 and 4: In the first column brainstorm the natural and social assets and relevant actors within the system. In Column A, list climatic changes already experienced. In column B, consider if and how the system of interest’s actors and assets are currently sensitive to climate variability. In column C, elaborate factors influencing the system’s current adaptive capacity. A Natural and social assets e.g. crops, equipment, community institutions Relevant actors e.g. farmers, laborers, traders B Examples of sensitivity factors are local housing materials, crop water requirements, resource dependency of a community. C E.g. a clearly negotiated value chain leaving farmers enough share, or access to reliable seasonal weather forecast would increase the adaptive capacity of a community.

Exercise (2b) Your task, Part 2 Deals with the future; Analyse potential impacts of climate change Define the vulnerability and need for action Use Matrix 5 and 6: In column D, identify the key climate change signals to which the system is likely to be exposed In column E, brainstorm the potential impacts to the biophysical part of the system In column F, brainstorm socio-economic impacts In column G, rate where there is need for action E consider column D in combination with the sensitivity factors (step 1 column B). E.g. dry spells lead to loss of ground water. F Impacts that you expect to result from climate change (column D) and the biophysical impacts (column E). Also take into account sensitivity factors (step 1, column B). You may also want to consider disparities of impact along gender, poverty lines etc. E.g. reduction of production and loss of income as water is lacking for irrigation. G Recall that development action should be oriented towards reducing vulnerability. Discuss columns E and F using the following questions: How relevant are the potential impacts to the development objective? How likely is their occurrence? What is the extent of damage to be expected? Summarize your findings by indicating --/-/0/+/++ for the action needed. Take into account that the adaptive capacity of the system (step 1 column C; ecosystem assets or actors) to the impacts without external support reduces the need for action from development cooperation.

Exercise (3) Results Logistics (please specify) Case work* Presentation of results (please specify how)* Reflection* *Please use your own examples here.

Example – Climate change vulnerability in rural India Local context 1/3 of geographic area is drought or flood prone High temperatures, and highly seasonal rainfall 1/5 of GDP is from agriculture 61% of land area is in agriculture 60% of rural population with livelihoods in natural resources Current incentives support unsuitable crops 86% of freshwater withdrawal is for agriculture Source: World Bank () Climate Change Impacts in Drought and Flood Affected Areas: 2008 Case Studies in India

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Guidelines for climate change vulnerability assessment Vulnerability Sourcebook provides step-by-step guidance to conduct vulnerability assessments Repeat VA over time to monitor progress in vulnerability reduction Ideally allows statements such as „vulnerability reduced by x% over time period Y“ Need to analyse if & how intervention lead to vulnerability reduction Download Study & factsheets 01.07.2018