(1) 2017 ENSO Forecast Zeng-Zhen Hu （胡增臻）

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Presentation transcript:

(1) 2017 ENSO Forecast Zeng-Zhen Hu （胡增臻） (2) NMME (North American Multi-Model Ensemble) Predicted Precipitation and T2m Anomalies in JJA 2017 Zeng-Zhen Hu （胡增臻） 13th Session of Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII), April 24-26, 2017, Beijing, China

Animation of NMME Forecasts during 2015-16 (Michelle L’Heureux) Observed (daily OISST)

Animation of NMME Forecasts during 2015-16 (Michelle L’Heureux) Observed (daily OISST)

(1) 2017 ENSO Forecast

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 13 April 2017 ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are favored to continue through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring 2017, with increasing chances for El Niño development by late summer and fall.

IRI NINO3.4 Forecast Plume Most dynamical models favor El Niño during the early Northern Hemisphere summer 2017, while statistical models favor ENSO- neutral through the Northern Hemisphere autumn 2017.

Individual Model Forecasts: neutral or El Nino EC: Nino3.4, IC=01 Apr 2017 JMA: Nino3, IC=Apr 2017 Australia: Nino3.4, IC=9 Apr 2017 UKMO: Nino3.4, IC=Apr 2017

Failure Forecast in 2012: IC in March and April 2012

(2) NMME Predicted Precipitation and T2m Anomalies in JJA 2017 (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/seasanom.shtml) Eight Models: NCEP_CFSv2 CMC1_CanCM3 CMC2_CanCM4 GFDL_FLOR GFDL_CM2.1 NCAR_CESM NCAR_CCSM4 NASA_GEOS5 IC: Apr 2017 Target Season: JJA (Lead 2-4 months) Display: Ensemble Mean Anomaly; Anomaly Probability; Skill

NMME Predicted JJA Precipitation ANOMALY (IC: Apr 2017)

NMME Predicted JJA Precipitation PROBALITY (IC: Apr 2017)

JJA Precipitation Prediction Skill of NMME (IC: Apr; Lead=2-4 Month; Target JJA)

NMME Predicted JJA T2m ANOMALY (IC: Apr 2017)

NMME Predicted JJA T2m PROBALITY (IC: Apr 2017)

JJA T2m Prediction Skill of NMME (IC: Apr; Lead=2-4 Month; Target JJA)

More Information CPC Webpage: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ Statement: This presentation is made during personal leave. The scientific results and conclusions, as well as any view or opinions expressed herein, are those of myself and do not necessarily reflect the views of NWS, NOAA, or the Department of Commerce.

http://www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml#discussion http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/seasanom.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue?f%5B0%5D=im_field_chart_type%3A483 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/el-nino-la-nina http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/poama2.4/poama.shtml http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/elmonout.html#fig11

Differences of D20 Evolution in 2011/12 and 2016/17