Bangkok, ECCA Training, September 1, 2017 Empowered Lives. Resilient Nations. AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE INDUCED FLOODS IN KOSHI BASIN OF TERAI NEPAL Parashu Ram Adhikari, Dhanej Thapa, Kheema Subedi, Basanta Paudel NEPAL Bangkok, ECCA Training, September 1, 2017

PROJECT BACKGROUND Climate vulnerable country, High dependence on environmental resources Erratic nature of the monsoon rainfall pattern and climate extreme events , increased mean annual precipitation; with decreased of rainy days with increased number of high-intensity rainfall events. Flood incidence increased in Nepalese context Floods in Koshi: Koshi river basin, which carries highest siltation among Nepali river, damaging million of hectare of arable land.

OBJECTIVES Objectives The overall objective is to assess climate induced flood risk and evaluate adaptations options suitable for agriculture resilience in Koshi basin of Terai Nepal. Specific Objectives To estimate physical impacts of climate induced flood risk in Koshi river basin area of Terai Nepal; To calculate economic cost of floods in agriculture production; To identify and compare economic cost and benefit of different adaptation options; and To rank different flood adaptation options based on obtained NPV.

METHODOLOGY Deductive and Inductive Approach, Use of Flood and Crop yield simulation Studies GIS based mapping for area decline with floods in different years Different Scenario Analysis With flood hazards without CC and increased floods hazards in CC context. Flood model/hydrological models Precipitation: Seasonal variability, inter-annual variation, Recurrence of floods and intensity and frequency Past extreme events, its increased intensity, frequency and recurrence in recent years. Satellite images captured in different in flood years

METHODOLOGY With flood hazards without CC and increased floods hazards in CC context. Flood model/hydrological models Precipitation: Seasonal variability, inter-annual variation, Recurrence of floods and intensity and frequency Past extreme events, its increased intensity, frequency and recurrence in recent years. Satellite images captured in different in flood years Losses in agriculture production with flood hazards and with increased flood hazards due climate change. Land loss Production decline, farming system, Agriculture productivity, production trend, Recardian model for impact on agriculture production(decline of net revenue)

METHODOLOGY Losses in agriculture production with flood hazards and with increased flood hazards due climate change. Land loss Production decline, farming system, Agriculture productivity, production trend, Recardian model for impact on agriculture production(decline of net revenue) Cost of and Benefit of Adaptation options. Cost of agriculture Adaptation; Submergence-tolerant rice varieties and river-belt farming (with floods) Flood protection: Riperian Plantation(without floods

DATA REQUIRED Type of Data Collection method Source of Data Collection Precipitation GCM, RCM and Downscaled data DHM, Floods, extreme events, intensity, frequency, recurrence GIS images, flood mode,FGDs and KII DWIDC Agriculture Land loss Observation/ Field Survey Crop loss Productivity decline method District Agriculture Development Office(DADO) Cost of Riparian plantation Cost of treatment District Forest Office, Cost of CSA; Submergence rice varieties and river-belt farming Production cost obtained from DADO. Benefit of Adaptation with floods and without floods Productivity method

Analysis Options Costs Benefits Do Nothing Evaluation of adaptation cost and benefit of flood management Analysis Options Costs Benefits Do Nothing Losses of crop production fallow of land. Losses of household income. The forgone cost river bank plantation Or For gone cost of use of submergence rice varieties Forgone cost of river-belt farming Introduction of submergence rice varieties and river belt farming Capital cost of crop varieties, input materials Higher production and Income Implementation of participatory river plantation Capital cost of bamboo, plants, land sloping, Recreation value, high land value, better production and income.

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