Assessment-Based National Dialogue Step 2: Taking Assessment recommendations forward Costing SPF Coverage Gaps: Methodology and First Results Bangkok, Wednesday 30 November, 2011 Celine Felix, ILO Social Protection Consultant, Bangkok celine.julia.felix@gmail.com

Agenda 1. Our framework: the Social Protection Floor 2. The Assessment National Dialogue 3. Today’s dialogue

1.Our framework: the Social Protection Floor According to the SPF framework, all the population should enjoy four guarantees Access to health care Income security for children Minimum income for the working age Income security for the elderly and the disabled Formal sector (20% population) Poor and near poor & Informal economy (80% population) Additional contributory benefits Objective 1 - Social Protection Floor Entitlement to at least a minimum level of benefits Horizontal dimension Adapted social insurance Objective 2 – Higher levels of income security: -statutory social insurance -voluntary insurance Etc. Objective 3- Beyond the floor Vertical dimension No one size fits-all Realizing human rights and social justice Combatting poverty and inequality Promote decent work

2. Assessment-Based National Dialogue Process : Three key questions Question 1: How do we define our Thai floor? “ While adopted as a global concept, each country should decide to design and implement shaped within a framework of national specific institutional structures, economic structures, political dynamics and social aspirations” Bachelet Report Question 2: What are the existing social protection provisions in Thailand (SPF level or higher) and what are related gaps? Question 3: How much would it cost to close these gaps?

Assessment-Based National Dialogue Process 1. ASSESSMENT MATRIX (INVENTORY OF SCHEMES, GAPS AND IMPLEMENTATION ISSUES, RECOMMENDATIONS)  NATIONAL DIALOGUE # 1 2. RAP PROTOCOL: DATA COLLECTION FOR THE COSTING, TRANSLATION OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS INTO SCENARIOS, COSTING SOME OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS   NATIONAL DIALOGUE # 2 (Today!) 3. FINALIZATION OF THE ASSESSMENT - 

Assessment matrix We used the Social Protection Floor Framework with the four guarantees as benchmark to review all existing schemes in Thailand … Not only social assistance programs! … With the objective to look not only at schemes implemented. planned at central level, but also at decentralized level and/ or implemented by the community as long as they provide/ have the potential to provide rights based, systemic, predictable protection

Bilateral Consultations How did we proceed? Desk review (June 2011 with inputs of UN agencies) Bilateral Consultations (July) Consultative meeting August 10 Met with MSDHS,NESDB, SSO, HISRO, TDRI, Social Partners, Chulalonkorn University, HelpAge, FoPDEV, Actors working on HIV sensitive social protection, Mahidol University

Existing provisions Recommendations/ priorities Gaps/issues What are existing programs? Health care New schemes Recommendations Expansion of existing schemes Higher levels of benefits Analysis: Is all population covered? Are benefits adequate? Other issues?? Income security for children Minimum income for working age Policy gaps & Implementation issues Income security for elderly/disabled

Our Assessment matrix Describe present and planned SP provisions: legal framework, overview of schemes, indicators Identify design gaps and implementation issues Priority policy options decided through national dialogue SPF Guarantees: Health / Children / Working Age / Elderly

The Official story (legal coverage) The effective coverage Define the gaps and the design of related benefits to close them

National dialogue # 1 Objectives: Share / refresh about the SPF concept and framework Discuss the diagnostic made of Social Security situation with main stakeholders Complete the Assessment Matrix Formulate jointly (in group works using the World Café exercise) recommendations to bridge the Social Protection gaps and overcome implementation issues Link to meeting report: http://www.social-protection.org/gimi/gess/RessShowRessource.do?ressourceId=25681

National dialogue # 1

National dialogue # 1

National dialogue # 1

National dialogue # 1

RAP PROTOCOL: Data collection for the costing, building scenarios, preliminary costing Translation of recommendations from consultations and consultative meeting on the Social Protection Floor (August 10, 2011) into “costable” scenarios Policy options/ scenarios described for each guarantee with eligibility criteria, take up rate, benefit amount, benefit indexation, administration costs, additional costs Scenarios include: Status quo Increase of the number of people covered Introduction of new benefit Increase of benefit amount

Costing with the RAP Protocol LABOUR MARKET MODEL LABOUR MARKET DEMOGRAPHIC FRAMEWORK Simplistic and adaptable projections Allows estimations of future costs of cash transfer elements of the SPF Allows a “reality check” How much in Bahts? % of GDP? % of Budget MACROECONOMIC MODEL GENERAL GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS MODEL BENEFITS COSTING EXERCISE SUMMARY AND RESULTS

National dialogue # 2: TODAY!! Objectives: Morning session: Understand the need for social protection costing and actuarial models (with ILO, HISRO, UNESCO) Afternoon session: Validate the assumptions used for the RAP protocol Share the results of the first costing Confirm the scenarios or propose new scenarios and cost them What Next? Discuss on the next steps to push the Floor Forward The Role of the SPF in post disaster situation Discussion on Cost, Affordability and Financing (Dr Somchai, TDRI) Discussion with policy makers, decisions on the next steps