Jorden er ikke flat, ikke havet heller Jan Even Øie nilsen Jorden er ikke flat, ikke havet heller Bjerknesdagen 01.10.2014 bergen

Havoverflaten er ikke flat 200 meter høydeforskjell

Havoverflaten stiger ulikt 0 = Tuvalu Global mean ≈3 mm (1992–2012) Globalt gjennomsnitt Tuvalu

Fremskrivinger av havstigning frem til 2100 80 40 -40 cm Figure 13.20: Ensemble mean net regional sea level change (m) evaluated from 21 CMIP5 models for the RCP scenarios (a) 2.6, (b) 4.5, (c) 6.0 and (d) 8.5 between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100. Each map includes effects of atmospheric loading, plus land-ice, GIA and terrestrial water sources. Figure 13.18: Ensemble mean regional contributions to sea level change (m) from (a) GIA, (b) glaciers and (c) ice sheet SMB. Panels (b) and (c) are based on information available from scenario RCP4.5. All panels represent changes between the periods 1986–2000 and 2081–2100. Figure 13.16: (a) Ensemble mean projection of the time-averaged dynamic and steric sea level changes for the period 2081–2100 relative to the reference period 1986–2005, computed from 21 CMIP5 climate models (in m), using the RCP4.5 experiment. The figure includes the globally averaged steric sea level increase of 0.18 ± 0.05 m. (b) RMS spread (deviation) of the individual model result around the ensemble mean (m). RCP4.5

Havstigning på grunn av flere prosesser 80 40 -40 cm Figure 13.20: Ensemble mean net regional sea level change (m) evaluated from 21 CMIP5 models for the RCP scenarios (a) 2.6, (b) 4.5, (c) 6.0 and (d) 8.5 between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100. Each map includes effects of atmospheric loading, plus land-ice, GIA and terrestrial water sources. Figure 13.18: Ensemble mean regional contributions to sea level change (m) from (a) GIA, (b) glaciers and (c) ice sheet SMB. Panels (b) and (c) are based on information available from scenario RCP4.5. All panels represent changes between the periods 1986–2000 and 2081–2100. Figure 13.16: (a) Ensemble mean projection of the time-averaged dynamic and steric sea level changes for the period 2081–2100 relative to the reference period 1986–2005, computed from 21 CMIP5 climate models (in m), using the RCP4.5 experiment. The figure includes the globally averaged steric sea level increase of 0.18 ± 0.05 m. (b) RMS spread (deviation) of the individual model result around the ensemble mean (m). RCP4.5

Smelting av is på land Gravitational attraction Reduced gravitational attraction Figure 13.18: Ensemble mean regional contributions to sea level change (m) from (a) GIA, (b) glaciers and (c) ice sheet SMB. Panels (b) and (c) are based on information available from scenario RCP4.5. All panels represent changes between the periods 1986–2000 and 2081–2100.

Landhevning etter istid NÅTID Figure 13.18: Ensemble mean regional contributions to sea level change (m) from (a) GIA, (b) glaciers and (c) ice sheet SMB. Panels (b) and (c) are based on information available from scenario RCP4.5. All panels represent changes between the periods 1986–2000 and 2081–2100. IMAGE 1.0 - The Northern Hemisphere at the end of the last Ice Age (10,000 years ago) http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Earth

Varmeutvidelse og havstrømmer Figure 13.20: Ensemble mean net regional sea level change (m) evaluated from 21 CMIP5 models for the RCP scenarios (a) 2.6, (b) 4.5, (c) 6.0 and (d) 8.5 between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100. Each map includes effects of atmospheric loading, plus land-ice, GIA and terrestrial water sources. Figure 13.18: Ensemble mean regional contributions to sea level change (m) from (a) GIA, (b) glaciers and (c) ice sheet SMB. Panels (b) and (c) are based on information available from scenario RCP4.5. All panels represent changes between the periods 1986–2000 and 2081–2100. Figure 13.16: (a) Ensemble mean projection of the time-averaged dynamic and steric sea level changes for the period 2081–2100 relative to the reference period 1986–2005, computed from 21 CMIP5 climate models (in m), using the RCP4.5 experiment. The figure includes the globally averaged steric sea level increase of 0.18 ± 0.05 m. (b) RMS spread (deviation) of the individual model result around the ensemble mean (m).

Varmeutvidelse og havstrømmer Figure 13.20: Ensemble mean net regional sea level change (m) evaluated from 21 CMIP5 models for the RCP scenarios (a) 2.6, (b) 4.5, (c) 6.0 and (d) 8.5 between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100. Each map includes effects of atmospheric loading, plus land-ice, GIA and terrestrial water sources. Figure 13.18: Ensemble mean regional contributions to sea level change (m) from (a) GIA, (b) glaciers and (c) ice sheet SMB. Panels (b) and (c) are based on information available from scenario RCP4.5. All panels represent changes between the periods 1986–2000 and 2081–2100. Figure 13.16: (a) Ensemble mean projection of the time-averaged dynamic and steric sea level changes for the period 2081–2100 relative to the reference period 1986–2005, computed from 21 CMIP5 climate models (in m), using the RCP4.5 experiment. The figure includes the globally averaged steric sea level increase of 0.18 ± 0.05 m. (b) RMS spread (deviation) of the individual model result around the ensemble mean (m).

Ulike bidrag og ujevn stigning Smelting av iskapper Smelting av breer 10 -10 25 20 15 Varmeutvidelse og havstrømmer Landhevning Figure 13.20: Ensemble mean net regional sea level change (m) evaluated from 21 CMIP5 models for the RCP scenarios (a) 2.6, (b) 4.5, (c) 6.0 and (d) 8.5 between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100. Each map includes effects of atmospheric loading, plus land-ice, GIA and terrestrial water sources. Figure 13.18: Ensemble mean regional contributions to sea level change (m) from (a) GIA, (b) glaciers and (c) ice sheet SMB. Panels (b) and (c) are based on information available from scenario RCP4.5. All panels represent changes between the periods 1986–2000 and 2081–2100. Figure 13.16: (a) Ensemble mean projection of the time-averaged dynamic and steric sea level changes for the period 2081–2100 relative to the reference period 1986–2005, computed from 21 CMIP5 climate models (in m), using the RCP4.5 experiment. The figure includes the globally averaged steric sea level increase of 0.18 ± 0.05 m. (b) RMS spread (deviation) of the individual model result around the ensemble mean (m). RCP4.5 -10 10 20 30 cm

Samlet havstigning frem til 2100 35 80 40 -40 cm 55 Figure 13.20: Ensemble mean net regional sea level change (m) evaluated from 21 CMIP5 models for the RCP scenarios (a) 2.6, (b) 4.5, (c) 6.0 and (d) 8.5 between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100. Each map includes effects of atmospheric loading, plus land-ice, GIA and terrestrial water sources. RCP4.5

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