Paul Devine & Rahul Savani AGENT BASED MODELLING Paul Devine & Rahul Savani

Introduction What is Agent-Based Modelling? Why do it? How do you do it?

What is Agent Based Modelling? Simulation Approach Built up from the component parts of a system System behaviour emerges from fundamental features Agents Autonomous Heterogeneous Have relationships Exhibit behaviours & make decisions

Why Model This Way? Real systems are often Intuitive Complex Comprised of many interacting entities Affected by individual differences Intuitive A different perspective Agents can represent People, organisms, organisations etc.

How Do We Build the Model? (Live) Data Novel Investigation Run Analyse & Revise Understand the Target System Data Analysis Build Model Output Domain Expertise

Apply this to the Movie Market The problem Forecast movie box office 10 week rolling forecast Across the whole market Why agent based modelling? Existing approaches had reached a limit To capture the social aspects of movie-going

Building the Model Domain Experts Data Novel Investigation Film execs, marketing execs etc. Us Data Historical, survey Novel Investigation Data visualisation, behavioural study

Summary Decompose the System Identify Agents Build Attributes Behaviours Interactions Build Incremental Validate and verify