President Trump and the Future of European Security

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Presentation transcript:

President Trump and the Future of European Security Graham Allison November 14, 2016

Wake Up to Trump

Trump’s Coordinates on NATO and Europe NATO is “obsolete” European members are “freeloaders” NATO committed to defending countries his supporters “never even heard of”

Anomaly of European Security?

Europe at War? Conflict Troop Contributions European Fatalities Afghanistan (2001-present) 39,500 (peak) 923 Iraq (2003-2011) 53,300 (peak) 306 Conflict Aircraft Contributions Sorties Kosovo (1999) 300 15,000 Libya (2011) 3,800 18,000

Who Would Fight For Estonia? Should our country use military force to defend another NATO ally in a serious military conflict with Russia?

Thucydides 21st Century German Question Is a war between a rising Germany and its European neighbors unthinkable? If in the next decade, Brexit leads to further unraveling of the EU, and the U.S. withdraws its security guarantee and renegotiates its relationship with NATO, could we see a renationalization of defense in Europe? Could we see a reemergence of Thucydidean dynamics?