California Energy Demand (CED) IEPR Forecast: April 22, 2014 Chris Kavalec Demand Analysis Office Electricity Supply Analysis Division Chris.Kavalec@energy.ca.gov 916-654-5184

Forecast Process In IEPR year (2013, 2015, etc.), a preliminary forecast is released in the spring Preliminary version is compared with the latest utility forecasts and differences reconciled Revised/final forecast released in fall, adopted in the winter Short-term peak forecast at end of every year Starting 2014, off-year forecast update Input from DAWG, close coordination with CPUC and ISO

Purpose/Uses of Forecast CPUC Long-Term Procurement Process (LTPP) California ISO Transmission Planning Process (TPP) CPUC/California ISO Resource Adequacy CPUC energy efficiency potential studies Renewables planning Other Mention outputs from forecast: electricity consumption, electricity sales, peak demand, natural gas consumption etc. at planning area/climate zone level Go over uses of forecast, describing each briefly. Other would include AB32 baseline, CEC infrastructure planning, etc.

Forecast Planning Areas (electricity) PG&E Southern California Edison SDG&E SMUD LADWP Burbank/Glendale Imperial Irrigation District Pasadena

Forecast Planning Areas (end-user natural gas) PG&E Southern California Gas SDG&E Other

Forecast Models Residential (end use) Commercial (end use) Industrial (combination end use-econometric) Agricultural (disaggregate econometric model) Transportation, communications, and utilities; street lighting (disaggregate trend analysis) Summary and Peak models Predictive models for self-generation

Econometric Models Separate models for all sectors, electricity and gas Peak model Used to inform, to make adjustments, and as point of comparison Will be used in the off-year forecast update

Three Scenarios High Demand: higher economic and demographic growth, lower efficiency program impacts, lower rates, higher climate change impacts Low Demand: lower economic and demographic growth, higher efficiency program impacts, higher rates, no climate change impacts Mid Demand: in between high and low

Key Inputs Population Average household size Employment Personal income Manufacturing output Commercial floor space (derived from economic/demographic data) Rates

CED Forecasts Incorporate Policy Initiatives Building codes and appliance standards IOU and POU efficiency program impacts Distributed generation incentive programs Demand response programs ZEV mandate Other electrification Forecast used as an assessment of progress toward goals rather than assuming goals met Mention briefly how initiatives incorporated in forecast. Last bullet point: e.g. CPUC PV goals happen to be met, but we don’t build the goals into the forecast results.

CED Forecast Methods and Inputs Evolve Over Time Changes/Improvements vs. CED 2011 Recent efficiency programs and standards High-speed rail and other electrification Climate zone results Additional demand response programs Model upgrades/improvements Further incorporation of climate change Additional achievable efficiency savings

AAEE Savings and Managed Forecast “Baseline” forecasts includes “committed” efficiency only Adjusted forecasts incorporates AAEE scenarios for IOUs based on CPUC Potential Study Combination of baseline and AAEE scenarios chosen as managed forecast(s) for planning purposes

Baseline and Managed Forecasts Mid Baseline and Mid AAEE, Combined IOU Energy

Baseline and Managed Forecasts Mid Baseline and Mid AAEE, Combined IOU Peak

2015 IEPR and Beyond New planning area/disaggregation scheme Hybridized end-use models Standardized weather normalization Low-resolution exploratory modeling Consultation with academic expert panel

Proposal for New Electricity Planning Areas PG&E TAC SCE TAC SDG&E TAC Turlock Irrigation and SMUD Control Areas LADWP Burbank/Glendale Imperial Irrigation District Question is what disaggregation within these.