A High Shift to Cycling Scenario How a large-scale increase in cycling would affect emissions, expenditures, and mobility Title slide, you can place a photo on top of the photo on right to customize it. Photo on right to show size and placement only. Presented by Jacob Mason, ITDP Transport Research Arena Warsaw, Poland April 19, 2016

THE URBANIZATION CHALLENGE Cities THE URBANIZATION CHALLENGE Cities will add 1.5 to 2.0 billion people by 2050. Billion People Global population 70% Urban population 50% Rural population Slide from From New Climate Economy Why do we care? Why are we here? We already live in an urban world……passed the point where over 50% of world's population live in cities. Expected to reach close to 70% by 2050. Cities also critical drivers of economic activity: The 150 largest metropolitan economies account for 14% of global population yet generate 41% of global GDP. Additional content from initial slide: The 150 largest metropolitan economies account for 14% of global population yet generate 41% of global GDP. The urbanisation trend presents significant opportunities SOURCE: LSE Cities and Oxford Economics based on United Nations World Urbanization Prospects, 2007 Revision and Oxford Economics City 750 database. See Floater, G., Rode, P., Robert, A., Kennedy, C., Hoornweg, D., Slavcheva, R. and Godfrey, N., 2014 (forthcoming). Cities and the New Climate Economy: the transformative role of global urban growth. New Climate Economy contributing paper. LSE Cities, London School of Economics and Political Science. To be available at: http://newclimateeconomy.report. 30% 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 SOURCE: UN Population Estimates

Stock of Motorcars 2 billion? 2025 1 billion 2010 250 million 1970

CONGESTION PUBLIC SPACE AIR POLLUTION ROAD DEATHS Transport is one of the only sectors where people experience more negative impacts as a country gets wealthier. AIR POLLUTION ROAD DEATHS

BACKGROUND We examined a different vision for the future. The first High Shift Scenario was completed in 2014, examining the potential impact of a much greater use of public transport, cycling and walking, including an analysis of CO2 emissions, traffic deaths, and infrastructure costs. The analysis used globally collected data and a modified version of IEA’s Mobility Model (MoMo) to assess urban impacts.

After the report was released, bicycle experts noted that the analysis did not seem very ambitious with regard to the potential for bicycles to impact the urban environment. As you can see, the large number of short trip distances present an incredible potential for bicycles and e-bikes to be used for a large percentage of urban mobility.

Research Team Change image later** -- in Wharton presentation Funders

GLOBAL DATA COLLECTION 26 regions, 60 countries, 1,000 cities Bicycle & e-bike sales & stock 250 Bikeshare systems Also include: -Cyclist traffic safety data -Limited cyclist ridership data -Bike related costs -Current Infrastructure -Current Policy

Modeling Modified IEA Mobility Model (MoMo) 3 Scenarios: Business as Usual Scenario 2014 High Shift Scenario (revised to exclude cycling gains) High Shift Cycling Global Advisory/ Review Committee

assumptions Future Cycling Scenarios dependent on mode shift projections: BAU scenario -Likely future given current trajectories for transportation and development -Assumed recent trends continue (~2030 mode share w/in ± 10% baseline levels) -Challenging to project given a lack of time-series data High Shift Cycling(HSC) scenario -Examine the upper-limits of feasible cycling -2030/2050 targets based on : 1) The average future city can approach the current cycling levels of ‘top performers’ 2) Certain percentage of trips are ‘cyclable’ based on trip distance 3) Increases are constrained by a plausible maximum rate of change -HSC requires: 1) Massive behavioral shift 2) Infrastructure development 3) Policy incentives

RESULTS In All Future Scenarios Travel Increases Substantially (this only shows non-OECD) -OECD shows little growth and some decline in travel -Non-OECD travel booms -Best to compare across 2050 scenarios -Shift to cycling is pretty modest as % of total urban pkt, but it’s 23% of trips, since so many urban trips are short.

It’s big numbers, but in this analysis they are part of an even bigger transformative scenario, which include transit, walking, and compact development. Cycling and e-biking in HSC account for: -$25Trillion USD cumulative cost reduction to 2050 -A 10% CO2 reduction in 2050 -An estimated $700Billion average yearly savings in vehicle, fuel and infrastructure cost

BUT THIS IS REALITY IN MANY PLACES Stressful cycling conditions and growing wealth and auto ownership are causing cycling levels to fall. In developed countries cycling is rising a bit in more progressive areas, but it is low and flat in many car-dependent areas. How would this change?

Seville % of Trips by Bicycle: 2006 = 0.5% 2012 = ~7% THIS Can happen… Seville % of Trips by Bicycle: 2006 = 0.5% 2012 = ~7% 2050 = 30%? Seville built: -130km Connected, protected bicycle network (all ages and abilities) -Bike sharing system 2,500 bicycles & 258 stations Photos not of Seville (Buenos Aires, which also has grown bicycle mode share extensively recently)

Next steps Better trip distance data Better data from developing regions Quantify economics of health benefits Quantify congestion relief Relate to 1.5 degree Climate Agreement?

Thank you! Jacob Mason jacob.mason@itdp.org