Results and lessons of the 10 years experiment of large earthquake prediction made in advance with a lead time months using Reverse Tracing of Precursors.

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Results and lessons of the 10 years experiment of large earthquake prediction made in advance with a lead time months using Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP) P. Shebalin Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Moscow, shebalin@mitp.ru www.rtptest.org

Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP) Step 1. “Earthquake chains” detect area of long-range activation of seismicity Chain is a sequence of earthquakes that follow each other closely in time and space, quickly extending over large distances Pattern Chain depicts the rise of earthquakes correlation range. The chain is formed by union of all pairs of “neighbors” with Drij < r0×10c*min(Mi,Mj) Dtij < t0

Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP)

Successful prediction of the Tokach-oki earthquake, 2003

California

California

Italy, 2004 and 2008

Central Apennines, Alps, Northern Dinarides and Po Valley Test using CSEM catalog

Kurile islands, 2006-2007

Aleutians, 2007

North Pacific without Honshu, M>=7.2 California Gorda Plate Alaska Aleutians Kamchatka Kurils

Japan, March 2011

Honshu-Hokkaido-Central Kurile islands region, M>=7.2

Summary of the experiment of prospective prediction using RTP algorithm, June 2003 – June 2012 Expected rate of targets in alarms k Predicted n Number of Expected rate of targets in regions K Occurred N t=k/K t+h Probability gain n/k/(N/K) California 0.68 3 13 3.73 4 0.18 0.41 4.2 Honshu to Kurils 0.67 5 4.35 0.15 6.5 Italy+ 2.66 0.4 5.9 E.Mediterra-nean 0.9 N. Pacific (without Honshu) 0.11 8 12 0.58 9 0.19 0.30 4.7 total 1.84 26 12.1 15 0.28 5.8

All events M>=3.5 and chains

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