What Happened? • Winner's strategy • Optimal individual strategy • Optimal group strategy • Resource behavior Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

Summary of Company Performance Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Ships Ships Ships Ships Ships Ships Ships Grand Ships Ships Company Assets Assets Assets Assets Assets Assets Assets Total Assets Assets 5/1000 7/1500 11/1110 14/3010 22/100 22/-400 22/-1100 4400 1 5/1000 10/2390 13/4670 18/820 18/-660 18/-1170 3330 10/790 2 5/1000 10/790 17/100 17/4260 17/3230 17/3220 17/3100 7350 3 5/1000 8/800 10/1060 17/1940 24/-2650 24/-5980 24/-7470 -1470 4 5/1000 12/90 24/-1730 32/4830 44/-4240 44/-10830 44/-14200 -3200 5 6 Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

Summary of Game Behavior C C C F F F 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

Typical Game Behavior Fish Catch Ships 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 YEAR 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 YEAR Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

Typical Game Behavior – Fleet Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

Typical Game Behavior – Catch Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

Typical Game Behavior – Fish Population Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

Aggressive Strategies “Purchase many boats until average fish productivity starts to decline. When fish productivity goes down, fish other areas.” “Increase fleet size as long as yields are stable.” “We will continue to add at least 1 ship per year. We will fish in both the deep sea and coast depending on fish supplies…” “We have acted on an impulse that things will be good for a few more years. Probably will keep our fleet at or around this size [16 boats].” Comments from students at the University of New Hampshire. Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

Conservative Strategies “We want to keep our fleet at this constant level and disperse it so as not to deplete fish resources in the deep sea and coast. “ “Buy conservatively, out of necessity, and keep our bank balance positive.“ “Obtain a stable fleet size [and] move fleet around to follow fish population densities. Sell off some of fleet as time goes on.” Comments from students at the University of New Hampshire. Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

Does fish depletion happen in real life? • Pacific Sardine • Peruvian Anchovy • North Sea Herring • Atlantic Swordfish • Atlantic Cod Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

Pacific Sardine Catch Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

Peruvian Herring, Anchovy and Sardine Catch Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

North Sea Herring Catch Source: Nichols, John. “Saving North Sea Herring.” Fishing News February 1999. Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

Atlantic Swordfish Catch Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

Atlantic Cod Catch Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

Principal Global Oceanic Fisheries Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

Total World Fish Catch Source: Fisheries of the United States, US Dept. of Commerce, 2000. Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

How The World’s Fish Are Caught Currently there are some 13 million fishers in the world. Twelve million use simple traditional technologies to land about half the world’s fish catch. The remaining one million fishers crew 37,000 industrial fishing vessels and account for the other half of the fish caught. These fishers deploy highly sophisticated contrivances ranging from sonar and spotting planes to fishing nets large enough to swallow twelve 747 jumbo jets. Source: “World Fisheries in Crisis.” Environmental News Network July 10, 1998. Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

The World’s Fisheries – Anarchy “The emerging anarchy in the oceans” is how one United Nations official describes the situation on the high seas. With so many vessels scouring increasingly fished-out waters, squabbles are inevitable. Russians attack Japanese vessels in the Northwest Pacific. Scottish fishers attack a Russian trawler. A Falkland Islands patrol chases a Taiwanese squid boat more than 4,000 miles. Norwegian patrols cut the nets of three Icelandic ships in the Arctic, and shots are exchanged. Philippine patrols arrest Chinese fishers near the hotly contested Spratly Islands in the south China Sea. The list of confrontations is ever-expanding. Source: “World Fisheries in Crisis.” Environmental News Network July 10, 1998. Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

Global Fisheries Depletion Thousands of Tons Potential 1,350 100 500 300 2,250 600 350 38 210 40 9-11,000 16,738 Region Northwest Atlantic Northeast Atlantic Southeast Atlantic Northwest Pacific Northeast Pacific Southeast Pacific Total Species Cod Haddock Capelin Herring Pilchard Salmon Halibut Perch King Crab Anchoveta 1994 Catch 48 7 2 243 1,643 210 367 32 26 5 11,897 14,480 Loss 1,302 93 498 57 607 390 -17 6 184 35 - 897 2,258 Source: The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture. United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, 1999. Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

International Fisheries Management The relative failure of international management to establish sustainable fisheries in many areas, despite the high quality of the research base sometimes provided, is clearly demonstrated by the dwindling resources, excessive catching capacity, uncontrolled transfers of fishing effort between resources and oceans, and depletion of many highly valuable resources...The fact that uncontrolled development of fishing effort leads to disaster has now been widely acknowledged in the scientific literature, and by high level fisheries management and development authorities. Source: Roodard. Review of the State of World Fishery Resources. Agriculture of the United Nations. Rome 1990. Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

Where else does depletion occur? • Groundwater • Forests • Soil • Game Animals • Ozone • Other Renewable Resources Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

The Fisheries System • Principal interactions Fish/Regeneration Fish/Catch Catch/Investment/Ships • Other influences Auction Environment Price Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

The Fisheries System: Fish Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

The Fisheries System: Catch Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

The Fisheries System: Investment +,- Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

The Fisheries System Structure +,- Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

What else affects the fisheries system? • Foreign competition • Technology • Regulation • Pollution • Weather (El Nino) Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

Impact of Technology on Ship Effectiveness Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

Is there anything wrong with depletion? • Present value of the fishery • Local vs. global strategies • Impacts on linked ecosystems • Equity of resource distribution Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

Dietary Importance of Fish In all, marine and inland fisheries provide nearly 30 percent of Asia’s animal protein, in Africa the proportion is 21 percent, in Latin America 8 percent. Source: Fisheries at the Limit. 1993. Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

What can be done? • Partition the seas • Establish quotas • Farm fish • Move down food chain • Change consumption preferences • Reduce destruction and pollution of fisheries • Limit ship fleets, technology • Develop better methods for stock assessment • Change social values and economic incentives Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows

Alternative Catch Policies - - - - Fish Banks, Ltd. © 2001 Dennis L. Meadows