Kate Brown CIFOR,Bogor, March 2009 PEN Global Analysis Linking PEN Analysis to contemporary debates in environmental change and development Kate Brown CIFOR,Bogor, March 2009

1. Forests and Climate Change Mitigation If stopping deforestation were easy wouldn’t we have done it already?

What can PEN data say about REDD? Who and where are most likely to be impacted by REDD? most forest dependent communities What kinds of restrictions will be most damaging to the poor and to forest-dependent people? – how can REDD avoid biased against the poor? Where/ in what contexts or circumstances might REDD be effective and why? Tenure systems PEN can potentially inform policy and project design by quantifying forest dependency and links to poverty

2. Forests and Climate Change Adaptation Who, where is most vulnerable to climate change? Informing understanding through empirical evidence on dependency and adaptive capacity First global analysis of this kind related to forest communities – separating out components of vulnerability Informing on-going scientific debates and policy formulation on cc adaptation

Potential impact (PI) – Adaptive capacity (AC) VULNERABILITY (V) = Potential impact (PI) – Adaptive capacity (AC) PI = Exposure (E) + Sensitivity or dependence (D) Exposure: The nature and degree to which a system experiences environmental or socio-political or other stress – from other sources cc impacts studies Dependence: The extent to which a human or natural system can absorb the impacts – forest dependence from PEN data Adaptive capacity: The preconditions necessary to enable adaptation to take place – indicators from PEN data

Components of Adaptive Capacity AC will depend on: Recognition of the need to adapt Belief that adaptation is possible and desirable Willingness to undertake adaptation Availability of resources necessary for implementation of adaptation measures Ability to deploy resources in an appropriate way External constraints, barriers and enablers to implementation From PEN data: Diversity of income sources Coping strategies Social capital and trust Institutions and property rights Infrastructure established literature says that AC will depend on… Set of indicators weighted by experts to produce the index Many analyses of V assume that material wealth is the main determinant of AC and therefore social V – but we cannot assume the poorest are always the most V to change.

3. Forests as a source of Resilience for the poor Resilience is the ability to absorb disturbance to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks How do forests support poor people in poor countries deal with different kinds of disturbance? Different kinds of disturbance Slow versus fast drought versus storm Shocks experienced by all or some within a community fuel / food price shocks versus family illness

What might this add to existing literature? Goes beyond arguments about safety nets Give specific examples Disaggregate poor in different contexts Different ecological endowments Forests are important as seasonal buffers, but only in certain circumstances and for certain people may they provide emergency relief? Distinguish between coping mechanisms and adaption Adaptation is a process or activity undertaken in order to alleviate the adverse impacts of environmental stresses or take advantages of new opportunities – in response or in anticipation – adds to resilience Coping mechanisms help to deal with a specific shock and may undermine ability to cope with further shocks and undermine resileince Does this overturn a conventional wisdom or accepted orthodoxy?